What Is the Current State of Air Pollution?

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What Is the Current Stateof Air Pollution?

• Roy L. Smith, Ph.D.
• US Environmental Protection Agency
• Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
• Research Triangle Park, NC
• smith.roy_at_epa.gov

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Introduction

• About me
• Topics covered by this presentation
• Fragmentation of air pollution programs and its
  influence on how much we know (or dont know)
• Criteria air pollutants (principal pollutants)
• Sources of data
• Trends
• Projections
• Hazardous air pollutants (HAPs, or air toxics)
• As above, but contrasted
• The aging of America
• Demographic shifts
• Migration
• Mobility
• As related to health risks associated with air
  pollution

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Subdividing Air Pollution The Clean Air Act
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What We Know Criteria Pollutants
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www.epa.gov/airtrends
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EPA Criteria Pollutant Monitoring Network
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Clear Skies Fine Particulate Projections
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Clear Skies O3 Projections
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Clear Skies Risk Projections

• Reductions in fine particles and ozone1 under
  Clear Skies would improve public health. By 2020,
  Americans would annually experience
  approximately
• 14,100 fewer premature deaths (An alternative
  estimate projects 8,400 fewer premature deaths)
• 8,800 fewer cases of chronic bronchitis
• 23,000 fewer non-fatal heart attacks
• 30,000 fewer hospitalizations/emergency room
  visits for cardiovascular and respiratory
  symptoms
• Included in this total are 15,000 fewer hospital
  and emergency room visits for asthma.
• Included in this total are hundreds of thousands
  fewer respiratory symptoms and illnesses for
  asthmatics, including approximately 180,000 fewer
  asthma attacks.
• 12.5 million fewer days with respiratory
  illnesses and symptoms, including work loss days,
  restricted activity days, and school absences.

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What We Know Hazardous Air Pollutants
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HAP Contributions to Tox-Weighted Emissions for
Cancer
1990
1996
2020
2010
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HAP Contributions to Tox-Weighted Emissions for
Noncancer Effects
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1.3 ug/m3 1e-5 risk
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Can zoom in to area of concern
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What We Know Demographics of Aging, and How
They Influence Exposure to Air Pollution
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http//www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/censr-4.pdf
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http//www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/censr-10.pdf
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http//www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/censr-10.pdf
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http//www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/c2kbr01-10.pdf

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http//www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/censr-4.pdf
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http//www.census.gov/prod/2004pubs/p20-549.pdf
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http//www.census.gov/prod/2004pubs/censr-19.pdf
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Summary

• State-of-the-art
• Air pollution programs fragmented by law and
  institutional history
• Criteria pollutants separated from toxic
  pollutants
• Level of knowledge varies widely
• Criteria gt HAPs
• Cancer gt noncancer
• Health gt eco
• Analyses and projections tend to be specific to
  decisions rather than general to the entire
  program

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Summary

• Criteria Pollutants
• O3 and PM present most of the health risk
• Emissions and ambient levels
• Have improved substantially over the last 10-20
  years
• despite huge growth in population, GNP, and
  energy use
• Information quality
• Vast monitoring network, gt 1000 stations for most
  important
• Annual emission inventories
• Regular analyses of past AQ trends
• Sporadic projection analyses that generally show
  substantial further improvements are attainable

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Summary

• Hazardous Air Pollutants
• MACT program has decreased emissions
• ca. 3-fold by mass
• ca. 2-fold by toxicity-adjusted mass
• Made most gains in major and mobile sources
• Emission projections show gains starting to erode
  by 2010
• NATA
• First analysis of entire air toxics universe
• Identified most important HAPs nationally
  (benzene, acrolein, POM, butadiene, Cr,
  naphthalene, chlorine, etc.)
• NATA too new to determine trends
• NATA not yet used for projections
• First use due soon, however
• Unlikely to overestimate actual exposures

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Summary

• Interaction of air pollution with aging
  population
• More people gt65 than ever before trend
  continuing
• Exposure to air pollution may differ because
• Different behaviors
• Relocation pattern representation in population
• Tendency to live in areas of moderate air
  pollution
• Less likely to relocate
• Longer exposure durations
• Less likely to leave the house
• Exposure moderated less by daily activity
  patterns
• Different gender makeup
• Potentially more susceptible to health effects