Where Do We Go

1
Chapter 11

• Where Do We Go
• From Here?

2
Possible Futures and Feasibility analysis

• Identify possible future scenarios
• Conduct preliminary feasibility analysis
• Technical feasibility
• Does the necessary technology exist?
• Is the necessary technology likely to exist in
  time?
• Economic feasibility
• Does the outcome promise a reasonable return?
• Political feasibility
• Can the task be done in the context of the
  existing or expected social and political
  environment?
• Scenario not feasible if any answer is no

3
Wild Cards

• Unanticipated technological changes
• Make future scenarios irrelevant
• Example The Babel fish

4
Tiered Internet services
Is it likely that such a system will become the
norm?
5
Possible Futures 2020

• Tiered services will fade away
• Tiered services will be successful but no obvious
  standard will emerge
• Tiered services will become the new standard
• Focus on the third possible future

6
Technical Feasibility

• There is no technical reason why tiered services
  cannot emerge by 2020
• Tiered Internet services are technically feasible

7
Economic Feasibility

• Model exists
• Television
• Broadcast
• Basic cable
• Premium cable
• Pay-per-view
• Tiered services are economically feasible

8
Political Feasibility

• Tiered services will change the Internet
• Preferential treatment for some
• The information should be free credo
• Winners
• Service providers fees
• Higher-tier users quality and speed
• Losers
• Serious, independent Web surfers
• Online advertisers
• The information have-nots

9
Are Tiered Services Feasible?

• Technically and economically feasible
• Some politically powerful foes
• Large firms will like tiered services
• Its going to happen!

10
E-Books Possible Futures 2020

• E-books will be a niche product
• Roughly 10 of revenues
• E-books will carve out significant niche
• Roughly 20-25 of revenues
• E-books will become dominant
• At least 50 of revenues
• Focus on the third possible future

11
Technical Feasibility Third Scenario

• Successful e-books already exist
• Reference books on CD-ROM
• Spelling dictionary and thesaurus
• Most existing books are created digitally
• Must compete with paperbacks
• We lack a convenient e-book reader
• Prototypes do exist
• Technically feasible by 2020

12
Books are created digitally
13
An e-book reader
14
Economic Feasibility

• Critical mass difficult to predict
• Who moves first?
• Lower cost to publishers
• New revenue for hardware makers
• Customer needs incentive to buy
• Inexpensive reader under 100
• Supply of e-books
• Price savings on e-books

15
Political Feasibility

• Winners
• Publishers who move quickly
• Authors longer time in print
• Supplier of e-book reader
• Losers
• Publishers who fail to adapt
• Existing distribution chain

16
Video game platforms are the state of the art

• Wild card
• Near future source of acceptable e-book reader
• Critical mass of gamers exists
• May change nature of books

17
Intellectual Property Rights

• A political and economic wild card
• Posting a document on the Web effectively places
  it in the public domain
• We do not currently know how to protect
  intellectual property rights online
• Those rights are valuable
• Publishers and authors will not post
• Counter The information should be free credo

18
The free network project

• The free network project is a leader in the
  information should be free movement.

19
The Future of E-Books

• Business will eventually adopt the most efficient
  distribution channel
• Digital material will be distributed digitally
• If current publishers dont, someone else will
• E-books will be dominant by 2020
• It might take a little longer
• Key is when critical mass emerges
• Its going to happen!

20
Web Services

• Intermediary-supplied e-utilities
• Allow incompatible applications to interact
• Similar to ASP services
• Software building blocks
• Examples
• Currency conversion
• Word to PDF
• Airline to car rental links

21
Think of a Web service as a remote subroutine
22
Web Services Possible Futures 2020

• Web services are mostly hype
• They will fade away
• Custom solution better option
• Web services will be successful but no dominant
  standard will emerge
• Trading partners with incompatible services
• Web services will be successful and a dominant
  standard will emerge
• Best outcome for supply chain integration

23
Technical Feasibility

• Web services are technically feasible
• Intermediary XML applications common
• Question Will a standard emerge?
• Islands, continents, planets of automation
• Historically, a few firms will dominate

24
Economic Feasibility

• Web services look promising
• CIO article 15.5 billion by 2005
• Expect fierce competition
• Risk vaporware

25
Political Feasibility

• Winners if a single standard emerges
• The vendor who owns the standard
• Microsoft .NET
• Sun Microsystems J2EE
• IBM Tivoli software portfolio
• Risk monopoly, collusion
• Cautions and concerns
• Excessive hype
• Publicly available services diminish competitive
  advantage

26
The Future of Web Services

• Consider the firms pushing Web services
• IBM, Microsoft, Sun
• Their track records are good
• They have deep pockets
• Accelerating pace of change
• Web services can cut response time
• Web services can cut development cost
• Multiple standards most likely outcome
• Incompatibilities with trading partners will be a
  problem in 2020