Population Geography

1
Population Geography

• The problems to be faced are vast and complex,
  but come down to this 6.2 billion people are
  breeding exponentially. The process of fulfilling
  their wants and needs is stripping earth of its
  biotic capacity to produce life a climatic burst
  of consumption by a single species is
  overwhelming the skies, earth, waters and fauna.
• -- Paul Hawken (www.paulhawken.com) 

2
Thailand as an Example

• Can a country sharply reduce its population
  growth in only 15 years?
• In 1971, Thailand adopted a policy to reduce
  population growth.

3
Thailand (cont)

• Several reasons account for this impressive feat
  
• the creativity of the government-supported family
  planning program
• the high literacy rate among women (90)
• an increasing economic role for women and
  advances in women's rights
• better health care for mothers and children
• the openness of the Thai people to new ideas
• the willingness of the government to encourage
  and financially support family planning and to
  work with the private nonprofit Population and
  Community Development Association
  (PCDA)(http//www.pda.or.th/eng/project_aids.htm)
  
• support of family planning by the country's
  religious leaders (95 of Thais are Buddhist)

4
How is Population Size Affected by Birth and
Death Rates?

• Populations grow or decline through the interplay
  of three factors
• births
• deaths
• migration

5
Demographic Birth Death Rates

• Crude Birth Rate (CBR) - the number of live
  births per 1000 people in a population in a given
  year.
• Crude Death Rate (CDR) - the number of deaths per
  1000 people in a population in a given year.

6
Crude Birth Rates (CBR)

• annual number of live births per 1000 population.
  
• It is "crude" because it relates births to total
  population without regard to the age or sex
  composition of that population.

7
Crude Birth Rate (cont)

• The crude birth rate of a country is strongly
  influenced by
• age structure of population
• sex structure of population
• customs family size expectations
• adopted population policies

8
National crude birth rates vary widely today
9
Lowering Crude Birth Rates China's Way

• In 1965 Chairman Mao stated an ever larger
  population was "a good thing," when China's CBR
  was 37 per 1000 and its population was 540
  million.
• In 1976 population reached 852 million although
  the CBR declined to 25.

10
China's Way (cont)

• "One couple, one child" became the slogan in 1979
  backed by both incentives and penalties.
• late marriages were encouraged

11
China's Way (cont)

• Single child families received
• free contraceptives
• cash awards
• abortions
• sterilization

12
China's Way (cont)

• Penalties included
• steep fines for second births
• sterilization of husband or wife of families with
  more than one child
• Penalties resulted in
• Infanticide

13
China's Way (cont)

• Prosperous Urbanites
• Successful Population Controls
• Population Projections

14
China's Way (cont)

• Falling fertility rates will result in
• declining proportion of working-age people
• inadequate number of people to care for rapidly
  growing number of senior citizens.

15
Factors Affecting Birth Rates

• Religious
• Roman Catholics and Muslims
• Political
• Italy
• European governments

16
Crude Death Rate (CDR)

• Crude Death Rate (CDR) - the number of deaths per
  1000 people in a population in a given year.

17
Crude Birth/Death Rates Developed vs. Developing
World
18
Average Crude/Death Rates
19
World Birth/Death Rate Trend

• Birth rates and death rates are coming down
  worldwide, but death rates have fallen more
  sharply.

20
World Population Change

• Rate expressed as a percentage
• Annual rate of         Birth rate -
  Death rate
• natural population      ---------------------
  -----------
• change ()                         
  10

21
World Population Change (cont)

• Exponential growth
• World annual population growth rate
• Actual Population change

22
Annual World Population Growth 2002
23
World Population Growth Rates 1950 - 2050
24
(No Transcript)
25
Population Number by Country

• China (1.33 billion in 2009) and
• India (1.12 billion in 2009) make up 37 of the
  world's population.
• US (306 million in 2009) has the world's third
  largest population but only 4.6 of the world's
  people.

26
Current Projected Population 2004/2025
27
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

• More refined that the crude birth rate.
• Shows the rate of reproduction among fertile
  females 15 49 years old.
• CBR the denominator includes the entire
  population including males and females not of
  reproductive age.

28
Decline in Total Fertility Rates (TFRs)
29
World TFRs 2002
30
Population Projections

• UN population projections to 2050 vary depending
  on the world's projected average TFR.
• Next slide UN population projections to 2050

31
UN Population Projections to 2050
32
Case Study U.S. Fertility Rate Changes
33
U.S. Birth Rates 1910 - 2002
34
U.S. Population Growth, 1900 - 2000 and
Projected to 2100.
35
Factors Affecting Birth Rates and Fertility Rates

• Importance of children as a part of the labor
  force.
• Urbanization.
• Cost of raising and educating children.
• Educational and employment opportunities for
  women.
• Infant mortality rate.
• Average age at marriage
• Availability of private and public pension
  systems.
• Religious beliefs, traditions and cultural norms.
  
• Availability of legal abortions.
• Availability of reliable birth control methods.

36
Typical Effectiveness Rates of Birth Control
Methods in the U.S.
37
Typical Effectiveness Rates of Birth Control
Methods in the U.S.
38
Typical Effectiveness Rates of Birth Control
Methods in the U.S.
39
What Factors Affect Death Rates?
40
Indicators of Overall Health

• Two useful indicators of overall health of people
  in a country or region are
• life expectancy - the average number of years a
  newborn infant can expect to live
• infant mortality rate - the number of babies out
  of 1000 born who die before their first birthday

41
Distribution of HIV - 2001
42
World infant mortality rates in 2002.
43
2009 World Infant Mortality Rates

• 2.75/1000 births Sweden
• 6.26/1000 births U.S. (45th)
• 151/1000 births Afghanistan (almost last)

44
Factors Keeping the Infant Mortality Rate Higher
than it Could Be

• inadequate health care for poor women during
  pregnancy and for their babies after birth
• drug addiction among pregnant women
• the high birth rate among teenagers

45
Age Structure Diagrams
46
Rapid Growth
47
Slow Growth
48
Zero Growth
49
Negative Growth
50
How Does Age Structure Affect Population Growth?

• Any country with many people below 15 years old
  (represented by a wide based population structure
  diagram) has a powerful built-in momentum to
  increase its population size unless death rates
  rise sharply.

51
Population Structure of the Developed Countries -
2002
52
Population Structure of the Developing Countries
- 2002
53
Population Data for The US, Brazil Nigeria
54
How Can Age Structure Diagrams Be Used To Make
Population and Economic Projections?
55
Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S.
56
Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S.
(cont)
57
Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S.
(cont)
58
Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S.
(cont)
59
Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S.
(cont)
60
Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S.
(cont)
61
Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S.
(cont)
62
Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S.
(cont)
63
Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S.
(cont)
64
Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S.
(cont)
65
Workers Supporting Beneficiaries Social Security
1945 - 2075
66
Baby Bust Generation aka Generation X

• Jeff Gordinier is tired of being force-fed the
  Beatles, the Summer of Love, Facebook and Britney
  Spears. He says being heard over the media din
  about boomers and their offspring, Generation Y,
  or "millenials" as they're now known, isn't just
  a challenge, it's annoying. Being overlooked and
  underappreciated? It's never-ending for him and
  his tribe of fellow Gen-Xers.
• http//www.time.com/time/arts/article/0,8599,17315
  28,00.html?imwY

67
What Are Some Effects of Population Decline from
Reduced Fertility?

• Population geographers and health officials
  project that the current HIV/AIDS epidemic will
  claim more lives (mostly in Africa and eventually
  in India and China) in the early part of this
  century than WWII did.

68
Solutions Influencing Population Size

• How Is Population Size Affected by Migration?
• Immigration in the United States
• What Are the Pros and Cons of Reducing Births?
• How Can Economic Development Help Reduce Birth
  Rates?
• How Can Family Planning Help Reduce Birth and
  Abortion Rates and Save Lives?
• How Can Empowering Women Help Reduce Birth Rates?
• What Success Has China Had in Controlling Its
  Population Growth?

69
How Is Population Size Affected by Migration?

• The population of an area is affected by movement
  of people into (immigration) and out of
  (emigration) that area.

70
Immigration in the United States

• Between 1820 and 2000, the US has admitted almost
  twice as many immigrants and refugees as all
  other countries combined.

71
Immigrants as Percent of U.S. Population
1820-2004
72
What Are the Pros and Cons of Reducing Births?

• The projected increase of the human population
  from 6.2 to 9.3 billion or more between 2002 and
  2050 raises an important question
• Can the world provide an adequate standard of
  living for 3.1 billion more people without
  causing widespread environmental damage?

73
Question We Should Be Asking.

• What is the optimum sustainable population of the
  earth based on the planet's cultural carrying
  capacity?

74
Slowing Population Growth

• Proponents of slowing population growth contend
  that if we do not sharply lower birth rates, we
  are deciding by default to
• raise death rates for humans (already occurring
  in parts of Africa)
• greatly increase environmental harm.

75
US Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society of
London

• In 1992, for example, the US Academy of Sciences
  and the Royal Society of London issued the
  following joint statement
• "If current predictions of population growth and
  patterns of human activity on the planet remain
  unchanged, science and technology may not be able
  to prevent either irreversible degradation of the
  environment or continued poverty for much of the
  world."

76
How Can Economic Development Help Reduce Birth
Rates?

• Population geographers have examined the birth
  and death rates of western European countries
  that industrialized during the 19th century.
• They developed a hypothesis of population change
  known as the demographic transition.

77
Demographic Transition

• As countries become industrialized, first
  their death rates and then their birth rates
  decline in four steps
• Pre-Industrial Stage
• Transitional Stage
• Industrial Stage
• Post-Industrial Stage