Rick Broadhead, MBA

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Leveraging the Power of High-Speed Networks
Rick Broadhead, MBA
June 14, 2004
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According to one estimate, telecommunications tech
nology will experience more change in the next 5
years than occurred during the last 95 combined!
Graham T.T. Molitor, Public Policy Forecasting,
Inc
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Innovation in the Next Decade Will Be Driven by
Broadband

• Wireless networks
• Nanotechnology
• Biotechnology
• Distributed computing
• Collaboration technologies
• E-Learning

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Popsicles were discovered in the early 1900s
when 11-year-old Frank Epperson accidentally
left a concoction of soda powder and water
outside one night, with a stick inside the
mixture.
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The microwave oven was invented in the 1940s
when a researcher named Percy Spencer
noticed that a radar tube in his laboratory was
melting a chocolate bar in his pocket
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Looking Back Over the Past Decade

• The past was about connecting people and
  organizations to the Internet
• The future is about connecting people and
  organizations to each other

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Think about computational research in part as
being like the Indianapolis 500. It's a
combination of two things, a fast car and a smart
driver. Ultimately the only thing that matters is
who crosses the finish line first.
Jonathan Schaeffer, Computer Scientist,
University of Alberta
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Trends Shaping the Future of RE In Canada
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(1) Access to Supercomputers
The U.S. Department of Energy is building a
supercomputer called ASCI Purple that will be
capable of simulating a nuclear explosion. It
will operate at 100 teraflops.
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How Long Would This Simulation Have Taken in 1974?
60,000 years!
Source BusinessWeek
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2002 Was a Wake-Up Call for the United States
That year, Japan announced that it had built a
40 teraflop computer called the Earth Simulator
- more powerful than the top 20 U.S.
supercomputers combined
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The United States is Fighting Back
Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee is
building a supercomputer that will be capable of
100 teraflops by 2006, 350 teraflops by 2007.
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Supercomputers Are the Key to Future Innovation
Many of the truly great discoveries of the
future are going to be made with supercomputers
like the one we are building here. Thomas
Zacharia, Associate Director for Computational
Sciences Oak Ridge
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Countries with the Most Supercomputers
United States 248 Germany 36 Great
Britain 33 Italy 17 France 16 South
Korea 14 Saudi Arabia 9 China 9 Canada 7 Neth
erlands 7
as of Nov. 2003
Source Top500.org
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Its Important to Visualize Tomorrows Research
Needs
Many scientists complain that their research
needs arent well understood
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The latest virtual heart models reflect the
activities of up to 12 million virtual cardiac
cells, yet a real heart has a billion cells.
Some of the existing computer models are so
complicated that it takes eight hours of a
supercomputers time to simulate a single
heartbeat!

Source MIT Technology Review
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A Stunning Statistic
By 2020, brain disease will cause more deaths and
disability in Canada than both heart disease and
cancer.

Source Vancouver Sun
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(2) Interdisciplinary Collaboration
Future breakthroughs in science will depend on
an interdisciplinary approach to research

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The Notion of Research is Changing
At Duke University, nearly every department in
the university from business to engineering
is working on collaborative research projects
with other departments

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Duke is a young university that isn't caught in
its own traditions. If Duke has a tradition,
it is to be bold, even fearless, in trying the
new, while also doing its best to appreciate and
reward the tried-and-true. Cathy Davidson,
Vice Provost for Interdisciplinary Studies
(Source U-Wire)

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Another Example
The University of Michigan has spent more than
100 million to build a Life Sciences Institute
that has been described as the
hottest experiment in science.

-Detroit Free Press
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(3) Global Competition

• In 2003, a record number of patents issued issued
  by the U.S. patent office listed at least one
  non-U.S. citizen as a co-inventor.
• Beginning this year, foreign entities will likely
  account for the majority of U.S. patent filings

Source MIT Technology Review
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The Asian Threat

• Researchers in Japan, Taiwan and
• South Korea now account for more than
  one-quarter of all U.S. industrial patents
  granted each year.
• Between 1980 and 2003, Japans share of U.S.
  industrial patents increased from 12 to 21
  percent

Source CHI Research/New York Times
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How Far Behind Are We?
It is estimated that many U.S. researchers have
10 to 100 times less supercomputing power than
their Japanese counterparts
Source Horst D. Simon/National Energy Research
Scientific Computer Center (BusinessWeek)
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The United States is Falling Behind
By 2006, Japans Institute of Physical Chemical
Research is expected to have a computer capable
of operating at a petaflop - 1,000 trillion
operations a second.
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We stand at a pivotal moment. For all our past
successes, there are disturbing signs that
America's dominant position in the scientific
world is being shaken.
U.S. Senator Tom Daschle in 2004, speaking for
the Association for the Advancement of Science
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(4) Outsourcing RD
High-speed computer networks will be needed to
support the increasing trend of offshoring
research and development

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Some Facts About India

• Fifteen of the world's automobile manufacturers
  source parts from India - an industry that will
  be valued at 15 billion by 2009
• India is the largest manufacturer of motorcycles
  in the world.
• 100 of the Fortune 500 have operations in India
  vs. just 33 in China

Source Mike Moore/Australian Financial Review
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Some Facts About India cont

• India has the fourth-largest pharmaceutical
  industry in the world
• There are more IT engineers in India than in
  Silicon Valley
• The outsourcing industry in India is growing by
  500 people a day
• 30 of the software for Motorolas latest phones
  is written in India

Source Australian Financial Review/New York Times
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(5) Grid Computing
One of the most fundamental shifts in the
history of computing

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Why is Grid Computing Attractive?

• No single point of failure
• Lower costs
• Vastly shorter time frames for RD

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Grid.org

• A global network of over 2.5 million personal and
  business computers whose computing power has been
  donated by Internet users
• The grid has a peak power of over 23 petaflops -
  23 times the power of the top ten supercomputers
  combined!

Source Reuters/Grid.org
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Smallpox Research Grid Project

• A search for smallpox drugs using the grid
  reduced Oxford University's library of 35 million
  potential drug molecules to just 45 in five
  months

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North Carolina Will Have One of the First
State-Wide Grids
It is estimated that grid computing will give a
10 billion economic boost to the state's
economy through 2010, leading to an additional
24,000 jobs


Source InformationWeek
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Not to Be Outdone...
The United States is building their own grid -
the TeraGrid - with a peak performance of 20
teraflops


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(6) Idle Data
The total holdings of the National Center for
Atmospheric Research have reached one petabyte
in size, roughly 100 times the contents of the
Library of Congress! By next year, it will
total two petabytes!


Source The Atlanta Journal - Constitution
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(7) Nanotechnology
By 2015, the global market for nanotech-based
products will reach 1 trillion and employ and
2 million people worldwide.

Source Harvard Business Review
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A Deadline Looms!
By 2020, transistors are expected to become the
size of individual atoms, making it impossible to
shrink them any further. This will lead to a
massive technological roadblock that will impede
innovation.

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(8) Biotechnology

• Canada has the second-highest number of biotech
  firms in the world
• There are a record 190 biotech products on the
  market and another 300 are in Phase III clinical
  trials in the U.S. alone

Source Intellectual Property Magazine/Food
Drug Letter
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Why is Biotech Important?

• Patents will soon be expiring on many blockbuster
  drugs
• 82 billion in sales will disappear from big
  pharma companies by 2007

Source New Scientist
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(9) National Security
Biodefense research and cyberinfrastructure prote
ction are areas woefully in need of attention in
Canada

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The La Jolla Institute for Allergy and
Immunology recently landed a seven-year, 25
million contract with the U.S. government to
create a public database for scientists. It
will be used to help fight infectious diseases
such as SARS and smallpox.

Source San Diego Business Journal
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(10) Education
Its no longer enough just to have Internet
access in the classroom!

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At a recent networking event hosted by Internet2
in Michigan, participants were shown how
educators could use high-speed networking to
receive a live presentation from the wreck of the
Titanic.

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What Two People Have Had the Biggest Impact on
the Telecommunications Industry?
Harry Tuttle and Thomas Carter
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Did you know that it was once illegal in the
United States to attach shoulder rests or any
other device to your telephone
without permission from the phone company?
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Harry Tuttles Story
In 1921, Harry Tuttle invented a plastic
device called the Hush-a-Phone that
was designed to block background noise during a
phone conversation.
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Tuttles Victory
In 1956 the FCC ruled that Hush-a-Phone wasnt
detrimental to the public phone network.
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The Carterfone
During the 1940s, Tom Carter invented a device
called the Carterfone that allowed people on
mobile radios to communicate with people on
regular telephones.
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1968 The Most Significant Ruling in Telecom
History
The FCC ruled in favour of the Carterfone in
1968, ushering in a new era in
telecommunications
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Without the Carterfone decision, the general
public wouldnt have been able to connect their
computers and modems to the network, and it is
likely that the Internet wouldnt have been able
to develop
Federal Communications Commission, 1999
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What Can We Learn from Harry Tuttle and Thomas
Carter?
Dont stifle innovation - support it and fund it
in every way possible.
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Anything Is Possible!
At eight years, the Web is the same age color
TV was when it turned profitable in 1962. And
when color sets really got TV rolling, we all
know what happened New industries sprouted from
it that were a complete and utter surprise.
BusinessWeek, May 12, 2003
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Innovation and Economic Strength Depend
on High-Speed Networking
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(No Transcript)
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Our economic future is inextricably linked to
our ability to come up with more technological
breakthroughs that equal the Internet in
magnitude. It was a succession of innovations
-- including electricity, telephones, radio,
automobiles, and antiboitics, that
revolutionized life in the first half of the
20th century.
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By contrast, the drought of economically
significant innovations in the 1970s helped pull
down growth. It is no coincidence that the rise
of the Internet in the 1990s coincided with the
biggest rise in household incomes, and the
biggest drop in poverty, in 30 years. Going
forward, such technology-driven growth is
essential if we are not to drown in our
problems.
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In Conclusion...
We are more limited by our imaginations than we
are the technology.

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Contacting Me

• By Telephone [phone]
• By Fax [phone]
• By E-Mail rickb_at_rickbroadhead.com
• Web Site http//www.rickbroadhead.com