PTS House 50 Liverpool Street London EC2M 7PR

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World class. Local knowledge.
Telecoms industry update and future trends
Roger Hutchinson Regional Director
PTS House 50 Liverpool Street London EC2M
7PR T 020 7539 6200 F 020 7539 6300 E
info_at_pts-consulting.co.uk www.pts-consulting.co.
uk
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Presentation Agenda

• Industry Environment
• Technology Environment
• The Bigger Picture
• Issues and Concerns
• Predictions

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Industry Environment

• Improcom acquired by PTS Consulting a 23m
  turnover, 300 consulting firm with UK offices in
  London, Birmingham, Manchester and Lutterworth.
  Worldwide offices in NY, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Dubai,
  Dublin and Singapore
• Manufacturer consolidation e.g. Alcatel-Lucent,
  Nokia-Siemens, Sony-Ericsson
• Fixed-Mobile Convergence will be big but
  WiFi-GSM handover and one bill still
  problematic
• Wireless Cities being launched in response to
  Govts Digital Challenge

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Industry Environment

• Mobile Applications taking off e.g. now 6m
  Blackberry devices in use Mobile vendors
  looking to increase ARPU through data and video
• Consolidation in internet-VoIP market e.g. eBays
  4bn acquisition of Skype
• BT has connected customers in Wick (nr Cardiff)
  to its 21CN NGN. Other S.Wales cities to follow
  by mid-2007
• BT 21CN - By 2009, broadband dialtone will be
  instantly available to most BT customers in the
  UK

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Industry Environment

• BT is planning to review its support for legacy
  services e.g. KiloStream and MegaStream between
  now and 2010
• BT predict the end of per minute billing by
  2010
• Hosted IP-PBX market set to grow analysts
  (Gartner) predicting 15-30 market share by
  2008
• Hybrid and pure IP-PBXs now regarded as mature
  technologies graph follows

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IP-PBXs are now mainstream
Source Gartner Dataquest
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Industry Environment

• Convergence is whatever you want it to be
  networks vendors solution ecosystems
  applications fixed-mobile billing
• Growth of Web2.0 apps Social Computing e.g.
  MySpace YouTube Blogging
• Managed Services, Outsourcing and Off-shoring all
  growing being won by Telcos, Systems
  Integrators and BPO vendors

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Industry Environment - Service Based Pricing
Models

• Content Value Content Pricing
• Managed Service user / port / service / SLA
  basis?
• No longer linked to bandwidth, minutes or
  point-to-point services
• Connectivity billing per user or per device
  type
• Single bill with cost centres and user level
  access to detail

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Industry Environment - Service Based Pricing
Models

• Customer Supplier Relationship (as always)
• Service In Money Out Relationship (as always)
• Output Based Requirements Specification?
• Technology Agnostic?
• SLA Connectivity Metrics availability, data
  throughput

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Technology Environment

• WiMax IEEE802.16 will be big according to
  those making the technology
• Wibree predicted to replace Bluetooth Wibree
  uses a fraction of the power
• Dual-mode WiFi/GSM (or 3G) phones now available
  needed for FMC
• 10Gbit/s Ethernet now 100Gbit/s Ethernet on the
  way

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Technology Environment

• Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) enables
  standards-based convergence - but, being SIP
  doesnt guarantee that it will work
• Broadband being enhanced to provide QoS needed
  for video e.g. BT Vision
• Microsoft Office will include telephony services
  embedded into applications such as Word and
  Excel. MS Exchange getting Voicemail soon
• Unified Communications, e.g. BT Communicator,
  becoming more widespread in use

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Technology Environment

• Instant Messaging gaining some traction in the
  business world
• IP Trunking gradually replacing ISDN and
  Analogue PBX exchange lines
• RFID is everywhere.

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The Bigger Picture

• Clash of Titans Mobile Operators Cable
  Companies and Telcos battle it out to offer the
  same services to the same customer base
• Fixed Mobile Substitution We use the simplest
  device not the cheapest
• Mobile Fixed Expansion Vendors attack each
  others space
• Triple / Quad Play Broadband, TV, Telephone,
  Mobile phone
• Component sales VS Total solution sale
• Complex solutions fewer vendors.

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Issues and Concerns - General

• Enterprises typically say that their main
  concerns are
• Out-of-control costs
• Convergence unsure of what it means
• Security physical and electronic
• Mobility everything that is not fixed to the
  desk
• Instability of the vendor marketplace
• Poor Account Management
• Business Continuity and DR Avian Flu
• Maintaining ICT skill levels and staff retention
• Increasing Speed of Change RoI never actually
  delivered
• Managing ICT for complex virtual business
  models.

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Issues and Concerns - General

• Demand for electronic devices and data centres is
  creating an energy-guzzling environmentally
  unfriendly situation
• IP devices are switched on 24/7 e.g. VoIP phones
  _at_ 7watts each one Uni calculated a 70k pa
  power bill for IPT
• Public WiFi is insecure and easy to spoof by
  hackers
• Mobile roaming charges are extortionate

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Issues and Concerns - General

• Managing and securing confidential business
  data on mobile devices is not easy
• Bewildering choice of comms routes mobile txt
  msg MMS deskphone voicemail IM desktop VoIP
  Email Fax Post wide choice adds to confusion,
  complexity and costs

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Issues and Concerns - NGNs

• No definitions for an NGN
• Low level of awareness about NGNs
• NGNs are driven by Telcos lower their cost
  base end-users have flat bills telephony
  becomes free but, cost of migration and
  support for legacy comms unclear and business
  benefits are unclear
• New services available via NGNs are unclear they
  will only be valuable to us if we can save money
  or make money by using them
• NGNs will reduce our choice and put more eggs
  into one basket is this progress?

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Issues and Concerns - NGNs

• Ofcom has two main concerns about NGNs
• Reduces competition and,
• NGN interconnect will introduce new traffic
  bottlenecks which charging models will need to
  address.
• What about QoS management and maintaining SLAs
  between NGNs?
• Number Portability between NGNs?
• New forms of misuse and abuse of services?
• Main concerns focus on unknown (therefore risky?)
  migration from legacy and continuing support for
  legacy service once NGNs are here.

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Predictions

• Even greater consolidation of manufacturers and
  sales channels as they vie for the same space
  and deliver ever more complex service-based
  solutions
• ICT skills shortage already becoming apparent
  IT pay up 15 on average last year
• Hosted IP Telephony will grow ideally suited to
  fragmented / nomadic / homeworker environment
• Increasing availability of free VoIP calls on
  mobile phones (using WiFi)

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Predictions

• Mobile devices will no longer focus on the main
  application e.g. phone, but will sell
  multi-function capabilities
• Mobile devices will have built-in GPS as standard
  within 3 years
• End-users will increasingly expect to use their
  own personal devices including games consoles -
  for work applications
• Flexible Working (part-time / flexi-time) will
  drive many telecoms developments

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Predictions

• Social Computing, e.g. MySpace / YouTube, will be
  used for business purposes
• Younger generation will expect consumer
  applications to be used within the business world
  (when they arrive in it)
• IP everywhere by 2020 predicted by many.

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• Thank you
• Any Questions?