ARIN1000 History and Theory of Informatics

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ARIN1000History and Theory of Informatics

• Week 4
• The Computer Revolution

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There will be a world market for 6 computers in
the US and 3 in Britain. Post WWII prediction

• How did we get from this prediction to the
  multi-billion dollar computer industry we have
  today?

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Review of key ideas from last week
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Conceptual and Technological Breakthroughs

• Binary system should replace decimal system
  (Leibniz, Zuse)This meant that electric circuits
  (on-off representing zero and one) could be used
  to make calculations
• Gears, cogs and shafts --gt Electro-mechanical
  relay switching --gt Vacuum tubes (no moving
  parts) - electronic computer
• Stored programsComputers a universal machine
  that could be programmed to perform multiple
  tasks (Babbage, Turing, Ekert and Mauchly, von
  Neumann)

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Driving forces behind development of computer

• To relieve human drudgery in making calculations
• Military imperatives - e.g. firing tables, code
  breaking
• Bureaucratic imperatives - e.g. processing census
  information
• Scientific and economic imperatives - improved
  accuracy and speed of calculations, eg. In
  engineering and navigation

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This week

• Well be looking at
• Continuing role of the government and military in
  development of computing technologies
• Role of industry in development of computers for
  business and domestic markets
• Role of computer hobbyists and enthusiasts
• Technological breakthroughs (improved hardware -
  smaller, faster, cheaper)
• Improved user interfaces and human-computer
  interaction (e.g. programming languages, killer
  apps, GUI)

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Hardware improvements

• New developments in hardware replaced large and
  unwieldy vacuum tubes allowing computers to
  become smaller, cheaper, more reliable and much
  faster
• These technologies underpinned the personal
  computer revolution
• 1947 - the transistor - Bardeen, Brattain and
  Shockley Bell Labs
• 1959 - the integrated circuit (the microchip)
  Jack Kilby had first patent but a superior model
  designed by Robert Noyce. Used in calculators,
  watches traffic lights, cars etc

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Hardware improvements

• 1969 - the microprocessor - a general purpose
  programmable IC - a computer on a chipTed Hoff
  Intel
• Note Ongoing role of military funding
• small reliable computers needed for the space
  race and for guided missiles, submarines and
  aircraft during the Cold War.

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Improvement of Human-Computer interface

• Development of English based programming
  languages
• 1962 - Ivan Sutherland - Sketchpad -
• 1965 - Doug Engelbart - the mouse
• Early research by XEROX PARC Palo Alto Research
  Centre into graphical user interfaces
• Commercial development of the GUI and WySiWyG
  printing by Apple in the 70s and 80s culminating
  in the user friendly Apple Macintosh
• Microsoft's adoption of the GUI in its Windows OS
  and its domination of the world wide computer
  market

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Development of the computer industry

• 1951 - Eckert and Mauchly / Remington Rands
  UNIVAC
• 1950s and 60s IBMs early dominance of the market
  
• The interest of hobbyists in computers also
  created demand for a personal computer1975 -
  Altair 8800, the world's first PC Ed Roberts
• Hobbyists and enthusiasts go on to become leaders
  in the new computer industry (e.g. Steve Jobs and
  Steve Wozniak Apple, Bill Gates Microsoft)

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Development of the PC Computer Industry

• A brief history of Apple, IBM and Microsoft

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IBM/Microsoft v. Apple
Bill Gates
Steve Jobs
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Microsoft v. Apple

• 1975 - Microsoft started by Paul Allen and Bill
  Gates
• developed a version of the BASIC programming
  language for the first PC, the Altair 8800
• 1975 - Steve Jobs and Stephen Wozniak found Apple
  
• 1977 - Apple II computer launched - generated
  US2.7 million in sales
• 1980 - Apple is the leading personal computer
  company in the world

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Microsoft/IBM v. Apple

• 1980 - Gates makes a deal with IBM to supply
  their new operating system
• Gates buys the rights to what becomes the MS-DOS
  operating system from software engineer, Tim
  Patterson (Seattle Computer Products) for 50,000
• MS-DOS becomes the operating system for IBM PCs
  and PC clones
• 1981 - IBM launched the IBM PC which was to
  become the industry standard.

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1982 - Time Magazines "Man of the Year ...
the computer
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How did IBM/Microsoft win the lion's share of the
PC market?
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1. IBM sales teams

• IBMs existing sales networks were legendary
• IBM had strong reputation with business clients
• IBM used its reputation and sales teams to
  leverage uptake of the new IBM PC

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2. Open standards

• IBM computers used open architecture so other
  manufacturers could build compatible products -
  IBM PC clones
• Market competition ? lower prices ? increased
  consumer demand
• Apple had a superior product but its price was
  considerably higher
• Cf videotape history - In the early 80s JVC's
  VHS standard won out over Sony's superior BetaMax
  standard - JVC licensed other companies to make
  VHS VCRs ? lower prices and increased market
  saturation

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3. Software

• IBM PCs and clones had a greater variety of
  software available
• most software developers developed for the IBM PC
  clones because of their greater market
  saturation

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1984 - Apple Macintosh
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1984 - Apple Macintosh

• Apple's "1984" advertising campaign targeted what
  it perceived as IBMs increasing domination of
  the PC market - invited customers to strike back
  at Big Blue
• Apple Macintosh incorporated the first true GUI
  (graphical user interface) derived from research
  at Xerox PARC used a mouse to manipulate (point,
  click, drag) icons on the desktop
• Espoused principles of "user-friendliness
• WySiWyG interface - prints what is seen on the
  screen

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Microsoft v. Apple

• 1985 - Microsoft copies the Apple GUI - Windows
  software is developed to overlay MS-DOS and
  provide a more user-friendly interface
• In 1985, Apple and Microsoft entered into an
  agreement that granted Microsoft a license to use
  the windows and icons of the Macintosh's GUI in
  the development of Windows 1.0. In exchange,
  Microsoft agreed to develop software for the
  Macintosh platform
• 1987 - Windows 2.0 launched - even closer to
  Macintosh GUI
• 1990 - Windows 3.0 launched - massively popular

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Microsoft v. Apple

• Apple accused Microsoft of stealing the look and
  feel of the Windows interface from the Apple
  Mac
• 1988 - Apple takes Microsoft to court
• 1994 - Apple loses final appeal (largely due to
  the 1985 agreement)

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By 1993

• PC compatible over 85 of market (NB only
  15 made by IBM)
• Apple 8.5 of market
• Others 6.5 of market(Unix, mainframes and
  minicomputers, OS/2)

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OS Market share in 2004

• Microsoft Windows 91.4
• Win XP 46.8
• Win 2000 32.2
• Win 98 9.4
• Win NT 2.6
• Win 95 0.4
• Apple 2.4
• Linux 2.6
• Other 3.6
• Sourcehttp//www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_
  stats.asp

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And the winner is ...

• Microsoft was the big winner here (Wintel
  computers with Intel processors and Windows
  operating systems).
• IBM created an open system in terms of hardware
  that allowed Microsoft's operating system (a
  closed system) to achieve a near monopoly
• Apple's famous 1984 advertising campaign where
  they identify Big Blue (IBM) and the enemy in
  fact missed the mark - it was Bill Gates and
  Microsoft that they should have been worried
  about

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Apple Microsoft Postscript

• 1997 - Microsoft invests 150 million in Apple
  and develops Microsoft Office and Internet
  Explorer for the Mac. Apple agrees to make
  Internet Explorer the default browser on all
  Macs.
• NB. In 1997 Steve Jobs returns to Apple (after
  leaving in 1985)

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Microsoft market dominanceadvantages

• Microsoft's Windows operating system and software
  provides a consistent market standard
• user familiarity - people like what they know
• skills can be transferred if an employee moves
  from one company to another

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Microsoft market dominancedisadvantages

• Microsoft's monopoly power means that
• There is less competition in the operating system
  and software markets
• Microsoft can use it monopolistic power to defeat
  competitors (another example is the browser wars
  where Microsoft defeated the early martket leader
  Netscape)
• Less innovation in the market (?)

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Tutorial discussion - future technologies

• The future of the human-computer interface
• The future of computing technologies
• What will the future computer look like?

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Improvement of Human-Computer interface

• Future Interfaces - Negroponte
• My dream for the interface is that computers
  will be more like people
• Human centred computer design, computers
  designed to interact like humans rather than
  forcing humans to adapt to the computer
• multi-modal interfaces incorporating speech and
  natural language
• agent-based systems e.g. The Knowledge Navigator

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References

• ARIN 1000 Reader
• Time-Life Books, (1989) Evolution of the
  Microchip, and A Golden Age of
  Entrepreneurship, in Understanding Computers
  Computer Basics, Alexandria Virginia.
• Floridi, L. (1999) excerpt from The Digital
  Workshop, in Philosophy and Computing, London
  Routledge.
• Negroponte, N. (1995) Being Digital, Rydalmere,
  NSW, Hodder and Stoughton. Chapter 7 Where
  People and Bits Meet pp.89-102.
• Other
• The Dream Machine, BBC videorecording - episode
  2 Inventing the Future and episode 3 The
  Paperback Computer

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References

• In Fisher Special Reserve
• Castells, M. (2000), The Rise of the Network
  Society (2nd Edition) Oxford Blackwell. Chapter
  1 The Information Technology Revolution
• Ceruzzi, P, (1998) A History of Modern Computing,
  Cambridge MIT.
• Lubar, S. (1993) Information Computers, and
  Information Software, in Infoculture, New
  York Houghton Mifflin.
• New Genies in the Age of Automation,
  Masterpieces of Miniaturisation, and Anatomy
  of a Lightning Logician, in Time-Life Books,
  (1989) Understanding Computers Computer Basics,
  Alexandria Virginia.

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References

• Online
• http//www.fenwick.com/pub/Archives/apple_v_micros
  oft_microscope.htm4
• http//law.richmond.edu/jolt/v1i1/myers.html
• http//www.microsoft.com/windows/WinHistoryIntro.m
  spx
• http//www.otterbein.edu/home/fac/dvdjstck/CSC100/
  Notes/Lecture11.htm
• http//www.websidestory.com
• http//www.computerhope.com/history/196080.htm