An Example of How to Use Theory

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An Example of How to Use Theory

• What's happening to
• crime trends, and why?

Dr. Matthew Robinson Appalachian State University
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What is happening to crime?

• Up?
• Down?
• Unchanged?

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Declining Crime Trends
http//ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/house2.htm
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Declining Crime Trends
http//ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/viort.htm
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Declining Crime Trends
http//ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/hmrt.htm
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Why?

• Possible reasons???

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Police

• Do more police lower the crime rate?
• Yes, number of police has some effect on crime
  rates
• Exhaustive study presented to Congress (1997)
  found more police in large cities reduces crime
  by modest amount
• Some specific police techniques work

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Why Arent Police More Effective?

• Approximately 2.86 cops per 1,000 people (and
  50-80 serious criminals)
• Only 40 of 100 serious crimes even known to
  police
• Likelihood of getting caught for serious crime
  only 10
• Takes 5 officers to cover 24 hour shift
• (adding 50,000 more cops in 90s 10,000 around
  the clock cops)
• Risk of getting caught still small!

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Prison

• Do more prisons and prisoners lower the crime
  rate?
• Yes, more prisoners lowers the crime rate
• Studies show mass increase in imprisonment led to
  25 reduction in violent crime in 1990s
• Not because of more severe punishment

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Prison

• What matters is CERTAINTY of punishment
• As illustrated, likelihood of getting caught is
  small!
• For this reason, capital punishment is also not a
  deterrent
• If prison is rare, it should not deter

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Prison

• Prison does not deter but it does incapacitate
  offenders
• If you lock up enough of them, your should reduce
  crime

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Growth in Imprisonment
http//ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/corrtyp.htm
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Prison

• Imprisonment boom (1973-present) is unprecedented
  in US history
• Only half of inmates are violent
• If we lock up enough violent offenders, we should
  expect declines in violent crime
• Is reduction in violent crime declines worth the
  cost?
• Cost is 50 billion annually!

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Stabilization of crack markets

• Crack cocaine hit big city streets in 1980s
• Media created moral panic over crack in 1986
• Increase of murder in 1980s blamed on crack use
• Actually attributable to unstable crack markets
• As dealers competed for right to sell crack, they
  argued (with guns)
• Major increase in murder!

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Murder Rate
The crack war
http//www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/hmrt.htm
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Stabilization of crack markets

• What made murder go up also made it come down!
• Crack markets became stable!
• But how?
• Evolution!
• (Survival of the fittest)
• Led to major decrease in murder!
• An analysis of demographics shows this to be the
  case

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Stabilization of crack markets

• Fastest declines among young black males

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Stabilization of crack markets

• Fastest declines in arguments and felonies

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Stabilization of crack markets

• Fastest declines in handguns

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Stabilization of crack markets

• Less young black males
• Having less arguments and committing less
  felonies
• With less handguns
• Equals less murder
• Due to crack markets becoming stable
• (supported by longitudinal analyses)

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Young Black Males
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Stabilization of crack markets

• Some dealers decided profits were not worth the
  risk (death, prison)
• Also, as old dealers were replaced, they were
  less violent because they were better dealers
  (evolution).
• Demand for crack just as high as in 1980s

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Demographics

• Less 15-25 year olds in society equals less
  crime!
• 15-24 year olds made up 18.7 of US population in
  1980 this fell to 13.7 in 1995.
• Aging population less crime
• Criminologists believe the aging population was a
  major factor in crime declines.

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An Aging Population

• This increase could explain property AND violent
  crime declines.

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Economics

• Economy improved in in 1990s
• GDP grew by 30 in 1990s
• Less poverty, less child poverty, less economic
  strain
• Such economic factors are related to violent
  crime (including murder)

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Economics
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Abortion

• Logical to assert that abortion reduced some
  street crime
• Predicted by criminological theory!
• Facts of crime say it is committed by
• Young males (15-25 years old)
• Children not attached to or supervised by their
  parents
• Adolescents not committed to school, involved in
  legitimate activities.

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Abortion

• Abortion more common among
• Young
• Unmarried and
• Poor.
• Children born to these women more likely to have
  been raised in households characterized by
  poverty, single teenage parent, strain/stress,
  and bad parenting.
• These things are risk factors for street crime.

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Abortion

• So, 15-25 years after legal abortion, should be
  less children born to young, unmarried, and poor
  mothers.
• And, less crime should be result.
• Because less children living in homes with a lot
  of risk factors.

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Trends in US abortions (CDC)
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Abortion
6th cohort would have hit crime peak
Abortion legalized
1st cohort would have hit crime peak
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Abortion
4th cohort would have hit crime peak
1st cohort would have hit crime peak
Abortion legalized
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Abortion

• 21 years after abortion legal, violent crime
  declined
• 18 years after abortion legal, murder declined
• Crime peak is 15-25 years old, and 18-21 years
  after abortion, violence started to decline
• Several studies show it is true
• (in US, Canada, Australia)
• State specific analysis in US also supports it

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Who Said it???

• I do know that its true that if you wanted to
  reduce crime, you could, if that were your sole
  purpose, you could abort every black baby in this
  country, and your crime rate would go down.
• This would be an impossible, ridiculous and
  morally reprehensible thing to do, but your crime
  rate would go down.

Bill Bennett, former Secretary of Education and
Drug Czar
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Conclusions

• Crime down to mostly NON criminal justice
  factors!
• Economic improvement
• Aging population
• More police, prisons, and stabilization of crack
  markets had some effect on crime
• Legalized abortion also played a role