Science and Society

1
Science and Society
2
Finding Explanations
"You know ... something happened a long time ago
They got together and swore a pact to the
Devil." "They said, 'We will serve you if you
get us free "And so, the Devil said, 'OK,
it's a deal.' And they kicked the ltenemygt out.
You know, lttheygt revolted and got themselves
free. But ever since, they have been cursed by
one thing after another."
3
Finding Explanations
"You know ... something happened a long time ago
in Haiti. They got together and swore a pact to
the Devil," Robertson said on the CBNs"700 Club"
Wednesday. "They said, 'We will serve you if
you get us free from the French.' True story."
That's right Robertson seems to suggest the
Haitians brought the earthquake on themselves, in
a deal with Satan. "And so, the Devil said,
'OK, it's a deal.' And they kicked the French
out," he went on. "You know, the Haitians
revolted and got themselves free. But ever since,
they have been cursed by one thing after
another."
4
Another Explanation
5
How Do We Choose?

• Can we prove correctness?
• What about falsifiability?

6
Science, the Public, and Public Policy
http//www.nytimes.com/2009/11/21/science/earth/21
climate.html?partnerrssemcrss
7
Judith Currys View
http//dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/27/a-cli
mate-scientist-on-climate-skeptics/
8
Is Climate Science Trustworthy?
http//views.washingtonpost.com/climate-change/201
0/01/is_climate_science_trustworthy/all.html?hpid
smartliving
9
New Smog Standards
http//www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/07/
smog-epa-reuglation
10
The Dawn of a New Day?
http//blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2009/01/
13/steven-chu-on-energy-policy-science-meets-polit
ics/
11
Obamas Inauguration Speech
http//www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/01/20/obama.polit
ics/
12
Bushs State of the Union Addresses
http//www.nytimes.com/ref/washington/20070123_STA
TEOFUNION.html
13
US Lead in Science?
The U.S. remains the world's science and
technology leader, but other countries are
gaining ground, the National Science Board said
Friday January 15, 2010 in its biennial report
on science and engineering.
14
(No Transcript)
15
(No Transcript)
16
More Data on Who Stays
http//online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527487049
05604575026800522011226.html
17
Two Main Thrusts

• Is there a problem?
• What does science bring to the table?

18
Where is Science Today?

• Scientific thinking isnt as common as we might
  like.
• Our government and our leaders dont value
  science as much as we might like.
• Scientists often shy away from immersing
  themselves in public debate.

19
Harris Poll November, 2007
Believe In Dont Believe In Not Sure 2005 Change
Believe In Dont Believe In Not Sure BelieveIn 2005-2007
God 82 8 10 82 -
Miracles 79 10 12 73 6
Heaven 75 12 14 70 5
Angels 74 12 14 68 6
Jesus is God or the Son of God 72 15 13 70 2
The resurrection of Jesus Christ 70 16 15 66 4
Survival of the soul after death 69 12 19 70 -1
Hell 62 22 16 59 3
The Devil 62 23 15 61 1
The Virgin birth (Jesus born of Mary) 60 22 18 58 2
Darwins theory of evolution 42 31 26 N/A N/A
Ghosts 41 35 24 40 1
Creationism 39 27 34 N/A N/A
UFOs 35 36 29 34 1
Witches 31 51 19 28 3
Astrology 29 46 25 25 4
Reincarnation that you were once another person 21 50 29 21 -
20
Evolution
21
Meet the Flintstones
The Texas Tribune, Feb. 17, 2010
http//www.texastribune.org/stories/2010/feb/17/me
et-flintstones/
22
What do Texans Think?
23
What Do Our Leaders Say?
The volatile issue of teaching creation science
in public schools popped up in the Alaska
governor's race this week when Republican Sarah
Palin said she thinks creationism should be
taught alongside evolution in the state's public
classrooms. Palin was answering a question from
the moderator near the conclusion of Wednesday
night's televised debate on KAKM Channel 7 when
she said, "Teach both. You know, don't be afraid
of information. Healthy debate is so important,
and it's so valuable in our schools. I am a
proponent of teaching both."
The Republican Party of Alaska platform says, in
its section on education "We support giving
Creation Science equal representation with other
theories of the origin of life. If evolution is
taught, it should be presented as only a theory."
Anchorage Daily News, October 27, 2006
http//dwb.adn.com/news/politics/elections/story/8
347904p-8243554c.html
24
What is a Theory, Anyway?
25
What is a Theory, Anyway?

• Gravity

26
What is a Theory, Anyway?

• Gravity
• Heliocentric cosmology

27
What is a Theory, Anyway?

• Gravity
• Heliocentric cosmology

c 150 Ptolemy published his theory 1543
Copernicus published De revolutionibus orbium
coelestium 1616 The Catholic church condemned
it 1633 Galileo convicted of heresy for
"following the position of Copernicus, which is
contrary to the true sense and authority of Holy
Scripture," 1835 Original version of De
revolutionibus dropped from prohibited list
28
What is a Theory, Anyway?

• Gravity
• Heliocentric cosmology
• Plate tectonics

29
What is a Theory, Anyway?

• Gravity
• Heliocentric cosmology
• Plate tectonics

Mid 1800s Geosyncline theory
1912 Continental drift Late 1960s
Plate tectonics
30
What is a Theory, Anyway?

• Gravity
• Heliocentric cosmology
• Plate tectonics
• Big bang

31
What is a Theory, Anyway?

• Gravity
• Heliocentric cosmology
• Plate tectonics
• Big bang
• Evolution

32
Evolution
On the Origin of Species, 1859
The Voyage of the Beagle, 1831-1836
33
The Galapagos Islands
34
The Galapagos Islands
35
The Galapagos Islands
36
The Galapagos Islands
37
The Galapagos Islands
38
The Galapagos Islands
39
The Galapagos Islands
40
The Galapagos Islands
41
The Galapagos Islands
42
The Galapagos Islands
43
The Galapagos Islands
44
The Galapagos Islands
45
Important Question 1
Why do so many people say, Evolution is only a
theory But they do not say, Gravity is only a
theory Or Heliocentricity is only a
theory Or Relativity is only a theory
46
Important Question 2
What price do we pay if we cave and allow schools
to teach, in science classes

• That evolution is just a theory
• That creationism is a reasonable alternative

47
Important Question 2
What prices do we pay if we cave and allow
schools to teach, in science classes

• That evolution is just a theory
• That creationism is a reasonable alternative

This issue is thus way bigger than just, How
did species come to be as they are? It is at
the core of science as an activity.
48
Kenneth Miller on Evolution
The idea that there is design in nature is
very appealing. People want to believe that life
isnt purposeless and random. Thats why the
intelligent design movement wins the emotional
battle for adherents despite its utter lack of
scientific support.To fight back, scientists
need to reclaim the language of design and the
sense of purpose and value inherent in a
scientific understanding of nature.
49
And, From the Other Side
http//www.creationevidence.org/
50
Texas Board of Education
One take on what happened last year
http//www.evolutionnews.org/2009/01/recap_texas_b
oard_of_education.html
The final vote
http//www.cnn.com/2009/US/03/27/texas.education.e
volution/index.html
51
Sticking Head in Sand
Gallup Polls results
52
Why Dont People Just Do Experiments?
Dan Ariely on our buggy moral code
http//www.ted.com/talks/dan_ariely_on_our_buggy_m
oral_code.html
53
Its Easy to Make Mistakes
And not just because there are things we want to
have be true. There are also

• Logical mistakes
• Statistical mistakes

54
Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

• In research hospitals, a higher percentage of
  patients die than in community hospitals.
• ? Therefore, you should avoid going to a research
  hospital.

55
Correlation vs. Causality
Every Summer Olympics year is a leap year.
56
Correlation vs. Causality
Every Summer Olympics year is a leap year. Every
Summer Olympics year is a US Presidential
election year.
57
Correlation vs. Causality

Girls who watch soap operas are more likely to
have eating disorders.
58
Correlation vs. Causality
only children eldest but
not only only or eldest
59
Correlation vs. Causality
Norwegian data using only single births. Out of
580,198 live births, there were 36,776
6.3 only children 211,386 36.4 eldest but
not only 248,162 42.8 only or eldest
Intelligence test scores and birth order among
young Norwegian men (conscripts) analyzed within
and between families, Tor Bjerkedal, Petter
Kristensen, Geir A. Skjeret and John I. Brevik,
Intelligence (35) 5, Sept Oct, 2007, 503-514.
60
Correlation vs. Causality
So what may be going on?
http//www.indiana.edu/intell/birthOrder.shtml
61
Using Statistics
Which is more likely

• Fred has lung cancer.
• Fred is a heavy smoker and he has lung cancer.

62
The Shell Game
You make one guess. I then turn over a shell
with no pea. Should you stick with your guess or
change your mind?
63
Our Government Isnt Always on Our Side

• Sometimes the problem may be just not enough
  money.
• Other times, there is outright interference.
• Conflating science with public policy.

64
The Role of Government Regulators

• What should be/is the role of government
  regulators?
• What does science have to do with regulation?

http//www.tnr.com/article/politics/the-quiet-revo
lution?page0,0
65
Not Enough Money

• U.S. Government Scientists Absentees at AIDS 2008

66
Outright Interference

• Government Scientists Accuse Bush Administration
  of Interfering, Misleading on Climate Change
• Suggesting a Link between Abortion and Breast
  Cancer
• National Institute on Drug Abuse Subjects
  Scientific Appointees to Litmus Test

67
Conflating Science with Public Policy

• These are science issues
• Is this drug safe?
• Is this species endangered?
• Is this chemical toxic?
• Does this educational strategy work?
• These are public policy issues
• Will the use of this drug offend some
  constituency?
• Should we develop this land?
• Should we force this company to clean up this
  land?
• What do we want to teach our children?

68
Before the Money
John Snow (1813 - 1858)
http//www.ph.ucla.edu/epi/snow.html
69
Money Talks

• Manufacturing Uncertainty

http//www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/michae
ls1
Doubt is our product.

• Legislating Sound Science

http//www.defendingscience.org/upload/BabaETAL.pd
f
70
The Funding Effect
http//www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic
le/2008/07/14/AR2008071402145.html
71
But Good Science May Rule
http//www.cmu.edu/homepage/health/2009/winter/jus
t-drive.shtml
72
The Origins of Government Funding of Science
Vannevar Bushs Memex machine, described in the
essay, As We May Think in 1945.
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vannevar_Bush
73
Science The Endless Frontier

• Vannevar Bushs response (1945) to a request from
  President Roosevelt to answers to several
  science/public policy questions
• Tech transfer of war results
• Organizing efforts to fight disease
• How can government aid research by others?
• How to develop tech talent
• It has been basic United States policy that
  Government should foster the opening of new
  frontiers.

http//www.nsf.gov/about/history/vbush1945.htm
74
Government-Funded Big Wins
Can you think of any?
75
Government-Funded Big Wins

• The Internet
• Speech recognition (Dragon)
• Human genome

76
(No Transcript)
77
(No Transcript)
78
(No Transcript)
79
Global Expenditures
80
Perspective
U.S. Population 306,000,000
81
Perspective
U.S. Population 308,749,762
(2/24/10) per person NSF FY 2009 budget
6,490,000,000 21.02
82
Perspective
U.S. Population 306,000,000 per
person NSF FY 2008 budget 6,490,000,000
21.02 Iraq War total (to 2008)
600,000,000,000 per year
100,000,000,000 326.80
83
What Does Science Bring to the Table?
84
What Does Science Bring to the Table?

• Facts and expertise
• Methods of reasoning
• Rational argument
• Scientific method

85
One Example
Goals Prevent HIV infection and teenage
pregnancy Question Which educational policy is
more effective

• Abstinence only.
• Comprehensive sex education.

How to answer the question

• What feels right.
• Collect the facts.

http//www.guttmacher.org/media/evidencecheck/2010
/02/03/EvidenceCheck-Jemmott-Study.pdf
86
Scientists Can Take Action
A Letter Groups Across Political Spectrum Urge
Congress to Include Federal Scientists in Pending
Whistleblower Bill
http//www.ncac.org/Protect_Science_Whistleblowers
.cfm