Weak signals, future sign and signification process

1
Weak signals, future sign and signification
process

• Elina Hiltunen,
• Futurist, Strategic Foresightning Manager,Nokia,
  Corporate Strategy

2
A weak signal definition (Kuusi et al, 2000,
based on a delphoi Sudy)

• The most supported weak future signal
• A weak future signal is an early warning of
  change, which typically becomes stronger by
  combining with other signals. The significance of
  a weak future signal is determined by the
  objectives of its recipient, and finding it
  typically requires systematic searching. A weak
  future signal requires i) support, ii) critical
  mass, iii) growth of its influence space, and
  dedicated actors, i.e. the champions, in order
  to become a strong future signal, or to prevent
  itself from becoming a strong negative signal. A
  weak future signal is usually recognised by
  pioneers or special groups not by acknowledged
  experts.

Kuusi, O., Hiltunen, E. and Linturi, H. (2000)
Heikot tulevaisuussignaalit Delfoi tutkimus
(Weak signals- a Delphi study). Futura, Vol. 2.,
78-92.
3
Antidefinition for weak signal

• An anti-definition of weak future signal
• It is crucial for the credibility of a weak
  future signal that it comes from acknowledged
  experts, and those experts are also most able to
  recognize weak signals. A weak future signal is
  not dependent on an interpreter, i.e. it is an
  objective phenomenon. The weak future signal
  anticipates processes that have radical impacts
  on future and it typically includes a sign, which
  needs to be seized immediately. An important weak
  future signal strengthens by itself over time,
  since it is an early warning of a general rising
  trend.

Kuusi, O., Hiltunen, E. and Linturi, H. (2000)
Heikot tulevaisuussignaalit Delfoi tutkimus
(Weak signals- a Delphi study). Futura, Vol. 2.,
78-92.
4
Moijanen, 2003, criticized the previous study
5
M. Moijanen, Heikot signaalit tulevaisuuden
tutkimuksessa (Weak signals in futures studies),
Futura, Vol 4, (2003) 38-60.
6
What are Weak Signals?????

• What are differences between weak signals and
  wild cards?
• Are weak signals just signs of emerging issue or
  are they emerging issues by themselves?
• How to define the weakness of a signal?
• Is it possible that a weak signal is interpreted
  as strong and weak at the same time by different
  actors?
• How is the change happening and how are weak
  signals related to it?

7
Weak Signals and Wild Cards- relation
Elina Hiltunen, Was It a Wild Card or just our
Blindness to Gradual Change? Journal of Future
Studies, Nov. 2006, 11 (2), 61-74.
8
HM selling used clothes in some of their
stores- A weak signals or not??
only few cases (about 2 of the stores) - A big
news story in the main Finnish news paper? many
people know
9
A Sign by Peirce
Sourcehttp//www.gypsymoth.ento.vt.edu/sharov/bi
osem/txt/origsign.html
10
Elina, Hiltunen, The Future Sign and Its Three
Dimensions, Futures
11
Weak signal sign or emerging issue?
A Strong sign
signal
The amount of Information, Visibility of
signals
Strengthening of a sign
interpretation
Understanding of the meaning of the issue for
the future
A Weak sign
issue
The number/ percentage of cases
12
Distance from the origin strength of the sign
13
Weak signal Objective or subjective??
14
Future oriented signification process (i.e. weak
signals in process of change)
Exosign signal in outside the world
(objective) Primary exosign first Exosignal Secon
dary exosign Exosign that was interpreted Endosig
n signal in our mind (includes interpretation),
subjective
Kuusi and Hiltunen, 2007
15
What are Weak Signals?????

• What are differences between weak signals and
  wild cards? Wild cards big events, weak signals
  small signs
• Are weak signals just signs of emerging issue or
  are they emerging issues by themselves? Signs of
  emerging issues
• How to define the weakness of a signal? By
  defining the info available on emerging issues
  (little information weak signal, much
  information strong signal)
• Is it possible that a weak signal is interpreted
  as strong and weak at the same time by different
  actors? Signals are objective, but observation is
  many times limited
• How is the change happening and how are weak
  signals related to it? signification process
  explains this

16
What is the role of weak signals in
organizational futures learning process?
Organizational Learning- combining the models of
Barr et al., 1992, March and Olen, 1979, Nonaka
and Takeuchi, 1995
17
International study for Futuristsabout good
sources for weak signals
Scan the Scanners
N118
Read more here Elina Hiltunen, Where Do Future
Oriented People Find Weak Signals? FFRC eBook
2/2007. Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku
School of Economics. 40 s. ISBN
978-951-564-452-7., available online
18
the Futures Window- tool for disseminating weak
signals in organizations
Elina Hiltunen, The Futures Window A Medium for
Presenting Visual Weak Signals to Trigger
Employees Futures Thinking in Organizations,
HSE Publications, working paper- w-423, 2007,
available online
19
(No Transcript)
20
A visual weak signal
21
Pilot 1.
In my opinion, it is important to to think in a
futures oriented way in my work.
The Futures Window could be a useful activator
of futures thinking in my own work.
It should be possible for all employees to send
images to the Futures Window.
In VTT there could be Futures Windows for
example in canteens and coffee rooms.
Futures Window gave me new ideas about the
future.
The Futures Window gave me new ideas about the
possibilities of the technology area that I am
working with in the future.
FD fully disagree, SD somehow disagree,
SAsomehow agree, FA fully agree, ? cannot say
22
Images that stuck to peoples mind
23
(No Transcript)
24
My academic articles/ papers

• Elina Hiltunen, Was It a Wild Card or just our
  Blindness to Gradual Change? Journal of Future
  Studies, Nov. 2006, 11 (2), 61-74.
• Elina, Hiltunen, The Future Sign and Its Three
  Dimensions, Futures, In Press, Accepted
  Manuscript, Available online 1 September 2007
• Osmo Kuusi and Elina Hiltunen, The Signification
  Process of the Future Sign, FFRC eBooks 4/2007.
  Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of
  Economics. 24 p. ISBN 978-951-564-510-4.
• Elina Hiltunen, Good Sources for Weak Signals A
  Global Study of Where Futurists Look For Weak
  Signals, Journal of Future Studies, May 2008,
  12(4)21-44.
• Elina Hiltunen, The Futures Window A Medium for
  Presenting Visual Weak Signals to Trigger
  Employees Futures Thinking in Organizations, HSE
  Publications, working paper- w-423, 2007