Opinion on Foreign Policy

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Opinion on Foreign Policy

• GOVT311 Lecture 19

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Muellers Propositions (a post-Sept 11 analysis)

• The public generally pays little attention to
  international affairs
• True in the post-Vietnam era. Following WW II,
  through Korea and Vietnam, around 50 of people
  listed foreign affairs as the most important
  problem. After the end of Vietnam, concern about
  foreign affairs tends to spike only in response
  to specific events, such as Iran hostages and the
  Gulf War.

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Muellers Propositions (a post-Sept 11 analysis)

• Public Opinion responds to events and leaders,
  not the media
• The impact of televised pictures on foreign
  policy is exaggerated
• The media reacts to public opinion on foreign
  policy, but cannot make a news story out of
  something out of nothing.
• There is some evidence of gatekeeping authority,
  in that stories that are left out of the news
  have no chance for the public to consider as
  important (famine in Ethiopia).

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Muellers Propositions (a post-Sept 11 analysis)

• Americans place high value on the lives of
  Americans, and little on foreigners
• ABC News Poll (Nov. 13-17, N1,030, MoE /- 3)
• "Would you favor or oppose having U.S. forces
  take military action against Iraq to force Saddam
  Hussein from power?
• Favor 64 Oppose 29 No Opinion 7
• "Would you support or oppose a U.S. invasion of
  Iraq with ground troops?
• Support 56 Oppose 39 No Opinion 6

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Muellers Propositions (a post-Sept 11 analysis)

• The U.S. public is not increasingly
  isolationalist, the pubic is simply not willing
  to lose American lives in areas with no national
  interest
• Somalia loss of one life sent the U.S. packing
  from a country with little strategic interest to
  the U.S.

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Muellers Propositions (a post-Sept 11 analysis)

• 6. Foreign policy has become less important in
  judging the performance of the president
• Tear this page out of the book. Until Sept. 11,
  this was true, but weve entered into a new
  period of American politics where foreign policy
  rivials domestic politics.

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Muellers Propositions (a post-Sept 11 analysis)

• 7. There is little long-term gain in successful
  international ventures
• The jury is still out on this one. Sept. 11 was
  fundamentally different than other events since
  the U.S. took a direct attack, like Pearl Harbor.
  Leading up to Pearl Harbor, a sizeable
  percentage of people said we should not go to war
  with Japan. During WW II, the country rallied
  behind FDR, but at the close of the war, Truman
  quickly lost the rally effect. Will the same
  happen to Bush? History would seem to say yes,
  though there may never be a true end to the war
  on terrorism.

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Muellers Propositions (a post-Sept 11 analysis)

• There is little long-term loss in support from
  international failures, as long as the failure
  does not become massively expensive
• As long as American soldiers do not die, American
  peacekeepers can remain indefinitely (we still
  have peacekeepers in Bosnia).
• Danger is that peacekeepers could be killed or
  held hostage

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Muellers Propositions (a post-Sept 11 analysis)

• International events tend to linger in the public
  mind in a haphazard manner.
• Not clear evidence provided is Iraq, which has
  certainly reemerged in the minds of the public