Prsentation PowerPoint

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• African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses
• Afrikanske Monsun Multidisiplinære Analyser
• Afrikaanse Moesson Multidisciplinaire Analyse
• Analisi Multidisciplinare per il Monsone Africano
• Afrikanischer Monsun Multidisziplinäre Analysen
• Analisis Multidiciplinar de los Monzones
  Africanos
• Analyses Multidisciplinaires de la Mousson
  Africaine

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Variability in the West African Monsoon Matters!
Recognising the societal need to develop
strategies that reduce the socioeconomic impacts
of the variability of the WAM, AMMA will
facilitate the multidisciplinary research
required to provide improved predictions of the
WAM and its impacts.
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Variability in the WAM impacts the US!
Bonnie (05)
Charlie (05)
Frances (05)
Flooding in New Orleans due to Katrina
(courtesy NOAA)
Ivan (05)
courtesy A. Aiyyer
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The WAM is an ideal natural laboratory for
exploring the coupled atmosphere-land-ocean system
NDVI image for 21-31 August 2000, from Pathfinder
AVHRR, highlighting the marked meridional
gradients in surface conditions over tropical
North Africa and zonal symmetry.
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The WAM is an ideal natural laboratory for
exploring the coupled atmosphere-land-ocean system
Key features of the West African Monsoon Climate
System during Boreal summer
Heat Low
SAL
AEJ
ITCZ
Cold Tongue
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The WAM is an ideal natural laboratory for
exploring the coupled atmosphere-land-ocean system
AEJ
50oC
90oC
?
?e
?
?e
20oC
60oC
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Programmatic aspects

• During past decades, China and India have
  benefited immensely from collaboration with the
  developed nations in weather-climate research
  (e.g., numerical modeling field experiments)
• Africa has yet to benefit to a comparable degree
  leverage ongoing activities as a framework?
• International African Monsoon Multidisciplinary
  Analysis (AMMA) program is such a framework (
  West African region)
• U.S. presence in AMMA mainly a) DOE-ARM
  (deployment of a technologically advanced mobile
  observing system) b) NASA (hurricane genesis
  measurements downstream in E. Atlantic) IRI
  (global models)

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Selected science aspects

• Africa is an integral part of the Earths climate
  system but has been little studied, poorly
  understood compared to other regions of the world
• Africa is one of Earths 3 large-scale heat
  sources, along with Amazonia and the Indonesian
  Maritime Continent
• Africas convective weather systems and
  precipitation regimes are direly in need of
  quantification
• Africas monsoon system differs from the
  Asia-Australia monsoon and from monsoons of the
  Americas fundamental in regard to inter-annual
  issues at the weather-climate interface

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The WAM is an ideal natural laboratory for
exploring the coupled atmosphere-land-ocean system
Key weather systems in the West African and
Tropical Atlantic regions An ideal region to
study scale interactions in the WAM and tropical
cyclogenesis
SAL
AEWs
TC
MCSs
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Introduction
Overview of AMMA-International US contributions
to the AMMA field campaign AMMA-US
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1. AMMA International
To reach AMMA aims, need to coordinate
-Science (Challenge disciplines, scales)
-Implementation (Obs, Model,..) -Data archive
and sharing -Funding issues
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1. AMMA International

• To improve our understanding of the WAM and its
  influence on the
• physical, chemical biological environment
  regionally and globally.

AIMS
(2) To provide the underpinning science that
relates variability of the WAM to issues of
health, water resources, food security
demography for West African nations and defining
and implementing relevant monitoring prediction
strategies.
(3)  To ensure that the multidisciplinary
research carried out in AMMA is effectively
integrated with prediction decision making
activity.
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IMPACTS
Water Resources
Land Surfaces
Ocean
Multi-disciplinary research
Public Health
Monsoon Dynamics
Food security
Socio-Economy
Aerosols Chemistry
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IGB
Endorses the Science Implementation Plans
Produces the Science Implementation Plans
Integrative Science
Obs implementation
ISSC
TT1 Radio soundings
WAM global climate (incl aerosol/chemistry
TT2a Surface Layer
TT2b Aerosol Radiation
Water cycle
TT3 Gourma site
TT4 Niamey site
Land surface-atmosphere- ocean feedbacks
ST3 Database
ST1 EOP/LOP
TT5 Ouémé site
TT6 Oceaic campaigns
Prediction of climate impacts
TT7 SOP-Dry season
High impact weather prediction
ST2 incl AOC
TT8 SOP-Monsoon season
AMMA National Pan Scientific Committees
TT9 SOP-Downstream
ARM
Links with International Programmes (WCRP, IGBP,
THORPEX, ..)
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International Scientific Steering Committee
Membership Ernest Afiesimama, Abel Afouda, Abou
Amani, Anton Beljaars, Bernard Bourles, Arona
Diedhiou, Andreas Fink, Amadou Gaye, Jim Haywood,
Paul Houser, Peter Lamb, Thierry Lebel,
Bob Molinari, Doug Parker, Jan Polcher, Joe
Prospero, Claire Reeves, Madeline
Thomson Co-Chairs Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Chris
Thorncroft ISSC responsible for Formulation
of well defined scientific objectives and a
coherent program, to address the three
overarching aims (see International Science
Plan) To coordinate integrative work through the
establishment of the 5 international WGs
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WG1 West African Monsoon and Global Climate
Co-chairs Arona Diedhiou (IRD, Niger), Serge
Janicot (LOCEAN, France) Peter Lamb (Univ.
Oklahoma, US)

• This WG is concerned with the 2-way interactions
  between the West African
• Monsoon the rest of the globe.
• Research areas under this theme include
• (i) Variability and predictability of the WAM
  (nature and role of teleconnections,
• intraseasonal variability including easterly
  waves, predictability issues and the role
• of the ocean, detection of global change),
• (ii) Monsoon processes (e.g. scale
  interactions, the seasonal cycle and monsoon
  onset),
• (iii) Global impacts of the WAM (e.g. on
  tropical cyclones, aerosol variability,
  atmospheric chemistry).
• n.b. includes aerosol-chemistry, modeling
  strategy evolving

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WG1 West African Monsoon and Global Climate

• Observed and modeled rainfall (with labels for
  onset and retreat) for Niamey based on
  area-average of 50 gauges and model simulated
  rainfall ( Lebel et al, 2000).

Time series (1941-2001) of average normalized
April-October rainfall departure for 20 stations
in the West African Soudano-Sahel zone (11-18N
and West of 10E) following methodology of Lamb
and Peppler, 1992).
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WG1 West African Monsoon and Global Climate

• Dominant pattern of precipitation error
• associated with dominant pattern of SST
  prediction error based on persistent SST
  anomalies (Goddard Mason ,Climate Dynamics,
  2002)

Coupled model systematic error in equatorial SST
simulation note systematic error in east-west
gradient in the tropical Atlantic
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WG2 Water Cycle
Co-leaders Amadou Gaye (Univ. Dakar, Senegal),
Paul Houser (George Mason, US) , Jean-Luc
Redelsperger (CNRM, France), France)

The efficiency of the processes controlling the
advection of atmospheric moisture, its
transformation into precipitation, and the
behaviour of rain water over land (e.g. run-off,
infiltration etc), is a crucial aspect of the
WAM. Analysis understanding of the water cycle
at regional-scale, mesoscale and local scale will
be carried out in the WG. Downscaling issues for
impact studies are key.
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A multiscale approach
Global
10
km
4

Regional
10
3
km
Mesoscale
10
km
2
Local
10
1
km
Year
Season
Day
Hour
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WG3a Land-surface-atmosphere feedbacks
Co-leaders Jan Polcher (LMD, France) Chris
Taylor (CEH, UK)

To provide increased knowledge understanding of
the feedbacks between the continental surface
the atmosphere ? to bring together the various
process studies (land and atmosphere) in order
to better understand the coupling at regional and
mesoscale
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WG3a Land-surface-atmosphere feedbacks

Koster et al, 2004
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WG3b Ocean-surface-atmosphere feedbacks
Leader Bernard Bourles et al

To provide increased knowledge understanding of
the feedbacks between the ocean surface the
atmosphere ? to bring together the various
process studies (ocean and atmosphere) in order
to better understand the coupling at regional
scales
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WG4 Prediction of climate impacts
Co-leaders Abou Amani (AGHRYMET, Niger), Andy
Morse (Univ. Liverpool, UK), Madeleine Thompson
(IRI, US) (IRI, US)

One of the 3 major aims of AMMA To provide the
underpinning science that relates climate
variability to issues of health, water resources,
food security demography for West African
nations and defining relevant monitoring and
prediction strategies. AMMA will ensure strong
linkages between the work taking place on impacts
and that taking place on observed variability and
predictability of the WAM.
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WG4 Prediction of climate impacts
Example Meningitis epidemics in Mali
Semaine de démarrage de lépidémie
January
Semaine du maximum du cycle saisonnier
(hiver) (Position du FIT la plus basse en
latitude)
Prediction ? Alert Systems
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WG5 High impact weather prediction and
predictability
CORE Membership E. Afiesimama (NIMET), S. Jones
(Un. Karlsuhe, Ger), D. Parsons (NCAR, US),
F.Rabier (Meteo-France),C. Thorncroft (SUNY, US),
Z. Toth (NCEP), US)

To improve our knowledge understanding of high
impact weather over Africa, including its impact
on the tropical Atlantic and Europe. Key
timescale of interest is 1-15 days
Can we predict dry/wet spells 15-days in
advance? Do such dry spells influence downstream
tropical cyclone activity?
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WG5 High impact weather prediction and
predictability

• Major Ongoing Activities
• Tailoring and evaluation of forecast products
  for users in tropical regions
• e.g. dry run 22nd August 2nd September 2005
  SOP 2006
• Impact of additional observations
• ECMWF, Meteo-France, NCEP, NRL, UK Met Office
  and others
• Targeting in tropical regions
• e.g. especially associated with driftsonde

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International Coordination Implementation Group
Co-chairs Thierry Lebel (IRD-Niger) Doug
Parker (Un Leeds UK) ICIG is responsible for
implementation of the AMMA field program
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10 years of observation and research
Long term Observations (LOP)
WA
Ocean
Regional
Enhanced Period (EOP)
E

0
0
S O P
10
3
Meso


WET
DRY
Local
2006 2007 2008
2002
2005
SOP0_a3 ?
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EOP Maps
From the continental to the local scale
Niamey
AMMA
Ron Brown Cruises and Meteor
EGEE Cruises
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(No Transcript)
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International Governing Board (IGB)
Co-Chairs Eric Brun (Meteo-France) and Alan
Thorpe (NERC) Membership G. Amanatidis (EU), J.
Boulegue (IRD) , W. Ferrel (DOE), A.
Guiteye(Director Operational Dept ASECNA), J.
Kaye (NASA), A.
Kignaman-Soro (ACMAD/D Representative PIREM),
J. Laver
(NOAA-NCEP), A. Ndiaye (WMO), N. Papineau (INSU
CNRS) To approve the structure and
implementation of AMMA particularly with respect
to the necessary financial and technical support.
To identify and mobilize national
international resources to support AMMA
activities. The first meeting took place on
December 20 via video-conference  
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Support Teams
AMMA International has also established a number
of support teams for the project. Three of these
are concerned with the field program and the data
center. The fourth (ST4) is concerned with
Capacity Building and Training. There are a
number of efforts going forward under the
auspices of ST4 that require coordination
(coordination is currently weak). This includes
some support from IRD (France), a GEF proposal in
West Africa, and calls for proposals from DFID
(UK). There is an urgent need for stronger
coordination of the various activities. The first
meeting took place on December 20 via
video-conference  
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International AMMA Webpages
International AMMA webpages have been developed
to aid communication http//www.amma-internati
onal.org Unique entrance to all AMMA
sites
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AMMA is definitively International
More than 500 Researchers from around 30
countries in Africa, Europe USA Algeria,
Belgium, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cap
Verde, Chad, Congo, Denmark, France, Germany,
Ghana, Italy, Ivory Coast, Mali, Morocco,
Netherlands, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Spain,
Togo, UK, US
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Founding Agencies
Regional African Centers
Agencies supporting AMMA
With the participation of
University of Cologne, Deutsches Zentrum für
Luft-und Raumfharte, University of Leeds, Centre
for Ecology and Hydrology, University of
Copenhagen, MEDIAS-France, University of
Burgundy, Université Paris 12 - Val de Marne,
Université Paul Sabatier, Centre de coopération
Internationale gen Recherche Agronomique pour le
Développement, University of Bremen,
Forschunggszentrum Kalsruhe, Leibniz-Institut für
Meereswissenschaften, Ludwig-Maximilianns-Universi
taet Muenchen, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Unive
rsität Bonn, Univerrsity of East Anglia,
University of Liverpool, University of York,
University of Leicester, University of
Manchester, Chancellor, Masters and Scholars of
University of Cambridge, Consiglio Nazionale
delle Ricerche - Institute of Atmospheric
Sciences and Climate, Enea per Nuove Technologie,
l'Energia e l'Ambiente, Consiglio Nazionale delle
Ricerche -Institute of Biometeorology ,
Universita' di Perugia, Universidad de Castilla-
La Mancha, Universitad Complutense de Madrid,
Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, Université
catholique de Louvain, European Ceeentre for
Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Centre Régional
AGRHYMET, Centre de Reecherche Médicale et
Sanitaire, Ecole Inter-Etats d'Ingénieurs de
l'Equipement JRural, African Centre of
Meteorological Application for development,
Vaisala OYJ, Ocean Scientific International Ltd,
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute,
Agence pour la Sécurité de la Navigation Aérienne
en Afrique et Madagascar, Kalsrhue University,
Universite d Abomey-Calavi, Universite de Dakar,
Universite de Niamey, Directions de la
Meteorologie et de l Hydrologie du Benin, Burkina
Faso, Cote dÍvoire, Ghana, Guinee, Mali, Niger,
Senegal, Togo
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AMMA-US Background

An AMMA-US proposal was prepared in December 2003
(see AMMA-US website)Due to lack of funding the
original AMMA-US proposal could not be funded as
one individual proposals were prepared to
address various parts of the program. Some of
these as well as additional proposals have been
successful, resulting in a significant US
contribution to AMMA field program.
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US contributions to AMMA field program in 06
ARM mobile facility (DOE) MIT-radar
(NASA) Surface obs. malaria studies (NOAA)
SALEX NOAA P3 and G-IV Targeted Missions and
Dropsonde flights with G-IV
NASA-AMMA Targeted Missions with DC-8,
Ground-based obs. (N-Pol TOGA radars, soundings)
Driftsonde/THORPEX (NCAR/NSF/NOAA CNES, France)
ZEUS lightning detection network
Surface-based research radars
US-GCOS Hydrogen generator at Dakar
Ronald H. Brown Cruises ship-based obs (NOAA),
supported by multi-year sustained obs (see next
slide)
Climate Transect
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Long-term observations in the tropical Atlantic

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AMMA-US Rationale and aims of workshop

It is estimated that in terms of field
observations alone in 2006, the US is
contributing 14M!!!!!. BUT there is a lack of
support for analysis of this data! There are
other significant US contributions to AMMA
activities including in particular NCEP (e.g.
forecast support including training via Africa
Desk, real-time data impact studies) GLOBE Indi
vidual PIs (funded through normal routes)
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AMMA-US Coordination
As a result of a recent workshop a structure is
being created to coordinate US contributions to
AMMA. This structure mirrors as much as possible
the international Working Group structure. We
are establishing the following 3 working
groups WG1 West African Monsoon and Global
Climate Kerry Cook, Pete Lamb, Bob Molinari WG2
Water Cycle Paul Houser WG3 Surface-atmosphere
feedbacks Fatih Eltahir (land), Erica Key
(ocean) The US also has important contributions
to international WG4 (e.g. IRI) and WG5 (e.g.
NAMMA, and individual PIs and groups working on
prediction and predictability issues including
NCEP, NRL, Univ. Miami).