NOAANWSOS

1
Request for Delegation of Procurement
AuthorityNITRB/CITRB NEXRAD Product Improvement

• NOAA/NWS/OST
• January 2007

2
Purpose

• Requesting Delegation of Procurement Authority
  (DPA) of 34.7M for development, production, and
  deployment of the NEXRAD Dual Polarization
  Modification
• This is a new contract
• The maximum period of performance is 5 years
• One12-month base year and four 12-month option
  years
• The 158 NEXRAD Weather Radar systems warn the
  people of the United States of dangerous weather
  and its location
• The Dual Polarization modification improves the
  ability of NEXRAD to estimate precipitation
  amounts, detect size and location of hail and
  snow, and discriminate between weather and
  non-weather phenomena

3
Agenda

• Agenda
• Basis for Investment
• Acquisition Strategy
• Program Management
• Risk Management
• IT Security
• Enterprise Architecture Compliance
• Administrative/Departmental Goals and Initiatives

4
NEXRAD Product Improvement

• What?
• NEXRAD Product Improvement (NPI) Program contains
  the following projects
• Open Radar Product Generator (ORPG) (complete)
• Open Radar Data Acquisition (ORDA) (complete)
• Dual Polarization
• Science Evolution (on-going)
• Other Radar Data (TDWR, etc)

5
NEXRAD Product Improvement

• Why?
• Improve severe weather detection and warning
  capabilities, through transition of RD to
  operations
• Replace legacy components to improve reliability
  reduce operations and maintenance costs
• Enhance data distribution
• Who?
• Tri-agency program NWS, DOT (FAA) and DOD (Air
  Force)

6
Basis for Investment

• Specific NPI objectives include
• Increase lead time and accuracy for weather
  forecasts and warnings (tornados, severe
  thunderstorms, severe winter storms, and flash
  flood forecasts and warnings)
• Reduce the time required to transition advances
  in science and technology from research to the
  operational community.
• Dual Polarization promotes capacity development
  by capturing additional atmospheric data, useful
  not only for improved precipitation estimation
  and hydrometeor classification, but also for
  model input.

Performance improvement objectives align with
NOAA's Strategic Plan to serve society's needs
for water and weather information
7
Basis for Investment

• NPI Success Stories
• ORPG
• National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) led
  software rearchitecture/rehost under OST
  direction
• Crossed the boundary from concept exploration to
  development and implementation
• Radar Operations Center (ROC) implemented
  hardware and integrated ORPG with legacy
  components of NEXRAD
• Deployment complete 2002
• 17 new science algorithms implemented on ORPG
  through 2006
• ORDA
• NSSL completed POC in 2001
• Contractor developed, integrated production unit,
  and deployed 158 operational systems under OST
  direction
• ROC ran acceptance testing
• Deployment Complete 2006
• Dual Polarization (third major NPI project)
• NSSL and National Climactic and Atmospheric
  Research (NCAR) conducted basic research in1990s
• NSSL developed proof-of-concept in late 1990s
• NSSL conducted Joint Polarization Experiment
  (JPOLE) in 2001-2003 to evaluate operational
  benefits of Dual Polarization
• NEXRAD Program Management Committee (NPMC)
  accepted JPOLE validation of operational benefits
  and authorized planning for production
  development
• Acquisition in planning for deployment starting
  in 2009

8
NEXRAD Product Improvement
9
Dual Polarization

• Description
• Modify existing radar to gather additional
  atmospheric data in the vertical plane
• Outcomes
• Improve flash flood warnings
• Improve severe thunderstorm warnings
• Probability of hail detection improves from 88
  to 94
• Probability of false alarm goes from 39 to 8
• Improve winter weather products
• Improve snow estimation
• Detect rain-snow line
• Improve data quality
• Detect 99 of non-meteorological scatterers
• Support NCEP model initialization

10
Economic Benefit Analysis

• Utilized NEXRAD Technical Requirements for
  Precipitation Estimation and Accompanying
  Economic Benefits (Hudlow, et.al., 1985)
• Report related flash flood damage avoidance
  water management to accuracy of precip estimates
• Dual Pol Improves precipitation estimation
  accuracy
• Reduced estimation error by 73 (Zrnic, 2003)
• Applying The Hudlow Approach Resulted In
• Estimated annual benefit - 690M
• Analysis Supported by National Severe Storms
  Laboratory

11
Acquisition Strategy

• Utilize GSA Federal Acquisition Services
  Millennia Lite
• Government-Wide Acquisition Contract
• Located in Oklahoma City Federal Building
• Compete Among pre-Qualified Vendors
• Provides
• Contracting Officer
• Contract administration support
• Legal support
• Electronic Contract Administration Tool
• NWS NEXRAD Product Improvement Retains Program
  Management/COR Responsibility

12
Contractor Project Tasks

• Provide overall program management activities for
  contract activity
• Must include Earned Value consistent with OMB
  Requirements
• Design, develop and produce the Dual Polarization
  modification for the WSR-88D fleet
• Document the design
• Deploy the Dual Polarization modification to the
  WSR-88D fleet
• Identify and address support requirements (Tech
  manuals, training (train-the-trainer, spares,
  test plans/procedures/reports, etc)

   
13
Project Structure

• Dual Polarization Contractor focus on RDA
• Coordination with Government development
  activities
• RDA-RPG Interface Control Document is the
  delimiter
• Government-supplied technical requirements
• WSR-88D System Specification updated for Dual
  Polarization
• Initial Design to be on Radar Operations Center
  Pedestal Test Facility
• Design Review and Decision
• Prototype Design to be on National Severe Storm
  Laboratorys Radar
• Design Review and Decision
• Production
• Complete Development and Test
• Hardware acquisition at completion of Systems
  Integration (2Q08)
• Deployment (Scheduled start FY09)

Earned Value Management System in compliance with
ANSI/EIA-748 is required
14
Proposal Evaluation Criteria

• Technical/Management Approach and Appropriateness
  to Project
• Past Performance/Experience and Relevance to
  Requirements
• Price
• Award based on Best Value

15
Evaluation Source Selection
16
Contract Type

• Performance-based Contract
• Design/Development Phase Time and Materials
• Hardware Procurement Phase Fixed Price
• Deployment Phase Time and Materials

17
II. Program Management
OST Director (Greg Mandt)
NWS Systems Manager(Dr. Frank Kelly)
Contracting Officer
Budget Officer
Program Manager (Greg Cate)
Implementation Team
DOD/DOC/DOT
COTR
NWS Systems Engineering Center (OST/SEC)
Radar Operations Center (ROC)
Prime Contractor
NCAR
NSSL
OST is the NWS lead for system improvements for
AWIPS, NEXRAD, ASOS
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Program Management
SCHEDULE
19
Program Management
ACQUISITION SCHEDULE
20
Cost Estimate
Amounts in 1000s
21
Alternatives
22
Risk Management

• Risk Management Plan developed for each project
• Derived from the Defense Systems Management
  Colleges, System Engineering Fundamentals Guide
• Each risk assigned an owner/priority/mitigation
  strategy
• Key IT-related Risks
• Adequate communications capacity on RDA-RPG link
  to support additional data Analysis in progress
• Adequate RDA processing capacity for additional
  signal processing- Analysis to be conducted by
  Development Contractor

23
Risk Management (Continued)

• 1. Cost of out-year projects (e.g. dual
  polarization) exceed initial Government estimates
  
• Probability Low (25)
• Impact Additional funding required to execute
  programs
• Mitigation
• Refine cost estimates as more technical
  information is developed
• Previous experience producing accurate estimates
• 2. Technical Issues more complex than originally
  envisioned
• Probability Low (25)
• Impact Increased schedule and cost
• Mitigation
• Planned two-stage prototyping
• Continue funding support by RD groups for
  consulting support
• Extensive test program

24
IT Security

• NOAA System ID NOAA-8214
• Rigorous Network Security
• Private IP Network with non-advertised routes
• Strong investment in IT security refresh
• Well defined and controlled system boundary
• Centralized firewall management
• CA Package will be a Contract Deliverable
• Security Control Testing to be conducted with the
  Radar Operations Center coincident with System
  Testing
• Strong SW/HW Configuration Management
• Align with OM processes security patching into
  Software Integration and deployment processes

25
Enterprise Architecture
Figure 6-8 of NOAA EA V1.6
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Architectural Compliance

• Convergence on Achieving Enterprise Solutions
• NEXRAD Uses Enterprise Red Hat Linux support
  contract
• NEXRAD supports Climate, Weather and Water, and
  Transportation
• Reuse of existing assets
• NPI uses existing infrastructure as foundation
  for improvements evolutionary vs. replacement
• Shared use of NOAA-Net for Wide Area Network
  planned
• NEXRAD supports weather data requirements for
  multiple government agencies and the private
  sector
• Usage of Standards
• The design complies with NOAA and Federal
  Enterprise Architecture standards
• Compliant with statutory requirements
• Information Quality (Section 515)
• Computer Security Act/Government Information
  Security Act

27
Architectural Compliance

• Compliant with Federal Enterprise Architecture
  (FEA)
• Performance Reference Model (PRM)
• Linkage of Strategic Outcomes (Protection of
  Lives and Property, GPRA)
• Business Reference Model (BRM)
• Service Component Reference Model (SRM)
• Good re-use of system components
• Technical Reference Model (TRM)
• Data Reference Model (DRM)
• Key sensor providing data for weather
  observations/warnings
• Data source for radar products for NCDC
• Essential data source for weather models
• Support for Government/DOC/NOAA goals
• Use of Commercial Off the Self products
• Steps taken to address accessibility
• Information Quality Standard (Section 515)
• Quality, Objectivity, Utility, Integrity

28
Administration/Department Goals and Initiatives

• Presidents Management Agenda
• Budget and Performance Integration
• Investments tied to performance improvements
• Expanded E-Gov
• NEXRAD data is a critical source of data made
  available to the public via www.firstgov.gov
  under the Climate and Weather topic.
• Research and Development Investment Criteria
• NPI-funded research is directly coupled with
  planned future operational improvements.
• DOC Goal One Provide the information and tools
  to maximize U.S. competitiveness and enable
  economic growth for American industries, workers,
  and consumers
• NEXRAD is a critical sensor system to the NWS
  mission of providing weather and water data to
  industry, as well as saving lives and property

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NOAA Information Technology Review Board NEXRAD
Dual Polarization Modification DPA Review
DPA REVIEW FUNDING

• GOAL Weather and Water
• PROGRAM Science and Technology Infusion
• EXHIBIT 300 NOAA/NWS/OST NEXRAD Product
  Improvement
• TITLE OF ACQUISITION NEXRAD Dual Polarization
  Modification
• TYPE OF ACQUISITION (Competitive, Sole Source)
• Government-Wide Acquisition Contract
• GSA Millenia-Lite
• PROJECT MANAGER Gregory Cate
• CONTRACTING OFFICER C. Mark Ready (GSA)
• COTR Roger Hall

Note NOAA Funding Only
IT SECURITY, MILESTONES RISKS
CONTRACTING LANGUAGE
CA Name NEXRAD NPI ID Number 8214 Planned
CA 5/09 CA Sensitivity Level Moderate IPv6
Status Internal LAN connections only
Milestones Planned Dual Pol Contract Award
3Qtr07 Complete Deployment FY13 Risks/Barriers
Outyear funding, Dual Polarization Acquisition

• IT SECURITY
• FAR clause security processing requirement for
  contractor personnel
• EVMS
• Requirement for EVM reporting that meets ANSI /
  EIA-748
• PERFORMANCE BASED CONTRACTING
• This is a performance based contract.

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Backup
31
Basis for InvestmentDirect Public BenefitMay
2003 Midwest Tornado Outbreak

• 1090 Tornado warnings issued
• 4,867 Warnings were issued based on data from
  NEXRAD
• 2009 Severe Thunderstorm warnings issued
• 683 Flash Flood warnings issued
• 41 lives were lost
• About 395 tornados were identified using NEXRAD
  data in 19 states during outbreak
• President declared four states as disaster areas
  (Missouri, Kansas, Tennessee, and Oklahoma)
• Without AWIPS and NEXRAD the loss of life could
  have been as much as 20 times higher

Statistics from NWS Focus Newsletter, dated
5/12/03
From Christian Science Monitor article dated
5/12/03 up to 20x higher, based on a comparison
with April 1974 super tornado outbreak (148/330)
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Basis for InvestmentBenefits to the National
Economy

• One third of US economy (4.0 Trillion) is
  weather or climate sensitive
• Industries directly impacted by weather such as
  agriculture, construction, energy distribution
  and outdoor recreation, account for nearly 10 of
  GDP, or 1.2 Trillion
• It is estimated that NOAAs National Weather
  Service forecasts, warnings, and the associated
  emergency responses result in a 3 Billion
  savings in a typical hurricane season
• Installation of Doppler radar by the NWS reduced
  tornado fatalities by 45 and injuries by 40
• Between 1992 and 2004, the NWSs NEXRAD radar
  system prevented over 330 fatalities and 7800
  injuries from tornadoes, at a monetized benefit
  of over 3 billion, compared with a total capital
  and site acquisition and preparation cost of less
  than 1.7 billion (in 2004).

Source Economic Statistics for NOAA fifth
edition, dated April 2006, Office of the NOAA
Chief Economist (http//www.economics.noaa.gov/)
33
Improvement in data quality

• Polarimetric classification algorithm identifies
  and filters out about 99 of non-meteorological
  echo if signal-to-noise ratio exceeds 10 dB
• Polarimetric radar substantial reduces biases
  of radar reflectivity factor due to radar
  calibration errors, partial beam blockage, and
  attenuation in heavy rain and hail.
• The quality of Doppler wind measurements in
  clear air will be improved using unique
  capability of the polarimetric radar to
  discriminate between passive tracers of wind and
  turbulence in clear atmosphere (mostly insects)
  and the scatterers that contaminate the retrieved
  wind profiles (mostly birds)

INSECTS
BIRDS
Composite plot of Z, ZDR,?hv, and results of
classification at El 0.5 on 24 August 2002,
0734 UTC. AP ground clutter / anomalous
propagation BS biological scatterers RA - rain
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Polarimetric rainfall estimation
Hourly gage accumulations versus their estimates
obtained with conventional and polarimetric
algorithms.
The bias in areal rain rates estimated from radar
using conventional and polarimetric algorithms
Spring hail cases
Cold season stratiform rain

• JPOLE Data
• 108 Oklahoma Mesonet and 42 ARS Micronet gages
• 24 rain events (50 hours of observations) .
• Results
• Polarimetric rainfall algorithm RMS error of
  1-hour accumulation reduced by factor of 1.8 for
  point and 3.7 for areal rainfall estimates with
  respect to legacy algorithm.
• Most significant improvement achieved in areal
  rainfall estimation and in heavy precipitation
  (often mixed with hail).
• Polarimetric method less affected by radar
  calibration errors, beam blockage, attenuation,
  drop size distribution variations, and presence
  of hail than the conventional method.

35
Polarimetric Hail Detection

• 2003 Storm Intercept Verification
• Provided more accurate verification data (hail/no
  hail) for 60 storms
• Hail Detection Statistics
• Conventional POD88 FAR39
  CSI0.56
• Polarimetric POD94 FAR8
  CSI0.86
• Method of Detection
• Conventional Hail probability founded on
  physically-based empirical relationships
• Polarimetric Classification of hail founded on
  measured polarimetric characteristics of
  hydrometeors
• Location of Hail
• Conventional Probability of hail applies to any
  location within a storm cell depicted by the SCIT
  algorithm
• Polarimetric Specific location of hail within
  the storm cell is identified

Note Currently no hail size discrimination
performed by polarimetric algorithm
36
Discrimination between rain and snow
Snow
Freezing rain
Rain
Delineation between rain (orange) and snow
(green) at the 0.5 PPI radar scan in the case of
freezing rain on 4 December 2002 (0302 UTC).
Numbers indicate surface temperatures (F).

• Polarimetric classification algorithm allows
  detection of bright band and delineation of rain
  and snow
• Freezing rain can be identified if polarimetric
  data are used in combination with surface
  temperatures
• Discrimination between rain and snow at the
  lowest elevation scan is necessary to correctly
  estimate amounts of precipitation (liquid or
  frozen)
• Can A statement about icing identification for
  aircraft operations be made?

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Dual Polarization Tornado Signature

• Description Radar Return from Tornado Debris
• Utility Help with Tornado Warnings
• Prevent missed tornadoes
• Accurate Severe Weather Updates, pinpoint
  tornado location
• Limitations Not Seen with All Tornadoes
• Seen with strong (F3) violent (F4) tornadoes
• Seen with only a few weak (F0/F1) tornadoes
• Max detection range not yet known
• Further Work More Data Collection/Analysis
• Need more data to define max detection range
• Need to find wind strength for debris lofting
• Need more data for tornadic bow echoes
• Tornado precursor signature may exist within
  developing hook echo precip distribution more
  data collection/analysis needed