One View of an Exploding Universe:

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One View of an Exploding Universe The Future
ofIndependent Media Integrated Media
Association
February 23, 2006 Seattle, Washington Andrew
Blau
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The task is not so much to see what no one yet
has seen, but to think what nobody has yet
thought about that which everyone sees.

Schopenhauer
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What everybody sees The new ecology for
independent media

• PervasiveMedia will be part of every kind of
  experience
• NoisyMore media, everywhere, all the time means
  more competition for everyone, everywhere, all
  the time
• InvertedThe essential dynamic of how audiences
  connect with work will be inverted
• FragmentedAudiences are fragmenting and
  organizing in new configurations
• Financially ReorganizedHow independent work is
  funded will change

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The new ecology
Pervasive
Media is becoming a fully integrated part of
other types of experiences.
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The new ecology
Noisy
The amount of media being created is soaring and
will continue to grow.
Source http//www.tenbyten.org/10x10.html
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The new ecology
Noisy
The amount of media being created by hobbyists
and amateurs is soaring and will continue to grow.
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The new ecology
Noisy
The range of places and devices where people will
receive motion media is growing and will continue
to grow.
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The new ecology
Noisy
Competition for audience attention is only going
up.
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The new ecology
Noisy
Computer and video gaming are part of the media
mix for both entertainment and information
programming.
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The new ecology
Noisy
Consolidation among media companies will continue.
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The new ecology
Inverted
Broadband and cheap digital storage will change
how people consume media.
Speed and Compactness
Ubiquity and Capacity
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The new ecology
Inverted
People are finding media in surprising ways.
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The new ecology
Inverted
And they can look far and wide -- which is
remaking the market for media products and the
scale and scope of audiences.
Source http//www.newseum.org/todaysfrontpages/
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The new ecology
Inverted
What other relationships will also get turned
upside down?
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The new ecology
Fragmented
Only a few shows, projects, or products will
attract big or mass audiences -- but many works
attract some audience
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The new ecology
Fragmented
Media with a strong, well-defined political or
social point of view will increasingly attract
supportive audiences.
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The new ecology
Fragmented
The next generation of producers and consumers
will have different attitudes, tastes, and
assumptions than the ones that Boomers and
Gen-Xers have.
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The new ecology
Financially Reorganized
The traditional combination of government,
foundation, and corporate funding is pretty much
shot. The only area with some potential for
growth right now is wealthy individuals, and they
are all feeling besieged. Robert Marx Fan Fox
Leslie R. Samuels Foundation
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Financially Reorganized
We want the airwaves, baby! The Ramones
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Selected Implications

• The media landscape will be reshaped by the
  bottom-up energy of media created by amateurs and
  hobbyists.
• The economic prospects for any individual media
  work are more precarious even as the market
  expands.
• The traditional relationship between the
  noncommercial and commercial media systems is
  changing.
• The commercial/noncommercial distinction will
  mean less.
• The new ecology for independent media will have
  more options for what to fund and when to fund it.

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Mind the Gap
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(No Transcript)
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One important uncertainty media providers
Users Want a Media Experience Built Primarily
Around
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Another important uncertainty
Viewers will connect to their media choices
through
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Four possible worlds where we will have to work
New Intermediaries
A3 Anyone,
Anytime, Anyplace
All Media Are Local
Something Other than Geography
Geography
Viewers connect to their media choices through
Users Want a Media Experience
Primarily Built Around
Ruperts World
Déjà Vu Again
For more on this scenario project,see
www.ptv-agc.org
Traditional Intermediaries
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Every strategy is a bet on a possible future
A3
All Media Are Local
New Intermediaries
craigslist
Something Other than Geography
Geography
Viewers connect to their media choices through
Users Want a Media Experience
Primarily Built Around
Déjà Vu Again
Ruperts World
Traditional Intermediaries
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Questions for the rest of the conference

• What are the best opportunities to support
  independent work in any of these worlds?
• Are the traditional forms of support more or less
  likely to promote good results in these worlds?
• Will the interests of public broadcasters and
  independent media makers become more or less
  aligned?
• What would it take to adapt to this new ecology?
  What is standing in the way?

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One View of an Exploding UniverseThe Future
ofIndependent Mediawww.gbn.com/independentmedi
a
Andrew Blau blau_at_gbn.com
5900-X Hollis Street Emeryville, California USA
94608 Telephone [phone] web
http//www.gbn.com