Health Care and the Presidential Election

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Health Care and the Presidential Election

• Claudia Deane
• Assoc. Dir., Public Opinion Media Research
• Kaiser Family Foundation
• March 14, 2008

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Americans Feelings about Their Health Care
The Back-story in 3 Slides
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Majorities Satisfied with Own Situation
Among those with health care coverage, percent
who
Sources ABC News Poll (Jul. 1994, Nov. 1995,
Aug. 1997), ABC News/Washington Post Poll (Oct.
2003), ABC News/Kaiser Family Foundation/USA
Today Poll (Sept. 2006)
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But Insecure about Costs, Losing Coverage
Percent saying they are VERY worried about the
following
Source Kaiser Family Foundation Health Poll
Report
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And ¼ Have Problems Paying Medical Bills
In the past 12 months, did you or another family
member in your household have any problems paying
medical bills, or not?
Health insurance status among the 25 who
reported problems paying medical bills
No
Uninsured
Insured
Yes
Source ABC News/Kaiser Family Foundation/USA
Today Health in America Survey (conducted
September 7-12, 2006)
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Looking Back Health Care as a Voting Issue
National Exit Polls
2004
2006
Moral values
Corruption/ethics
Economy/Jobs
Economy
Terrorism
Terrorism
Iraq
Traditional values
Health care
Iraq
Taxes
Illegal immigration
Saddam Hussein verdict
Education
Source 2004 Presidential 2006 Congressional
election exit polls by Edison/Mitofsky for the
National Election Pool
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Election 08 Health Care Breaking Through?
Thinking about the campaign for the presidential
election in 2008, what two issues would you most
like to hear the presidential candidates talk
about? (open-ended)
Economy
Iraq
Health care
Immigration
Education/Schools
Terrorism/National Security
Note Adds up to more than 100 due to multiple
responses. Responses based on registered
voters. Source Kaiser Health Tracking Poll
Election 2008 (conducted February 7-16, 2008)
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Issue Landscape Changing Rapidly
Thinking about the campaign for the presidential
election in 2008, what two issues would you most
like to hear the presidential candidates talk
about? (open-ended, top 4 responses shown)
Note Adds up to more than 100 due to multiple
responses. Source Kaiser Health Tracking Poll
Election 2008
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Interest in Health Care by Party ID
Thinking about the campaign for the presidential
election in 2008, what two issues would you most
like to hear the presidential candidates talk
about? (open-ended)
Republicans
Democrats
Independents
Economy
Iraq
Health care
Immigration
Education/Schools
Terrorism/National Security
Note Adds up to more than 100 due to multiple
responses. Responses based on registered
voters. Source Kaiser Health Tracking Poll
Election 2008 (conducted February 7-16, 2008)
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Issue Priorities the Younger Generation
Economy
General Public
Iraq
18-29 year olds
Health Care
Immigration
Education
Note Results reflect combined response to two
questions, one about the issues that will drive
vote choice, and one about what issues candidates
should discuss. Source Kaiser Health Tracking
Poll Election 2008 (conducted February 7 16,
2008)
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Party ID by Age
Ages 18-29
Total General Population
Other/None/ Dont know/ Ref.
Republicans
Republicans
Democrats
Independents
Democrats
Independents
Other/None/ Dont know/ Refused
Source Kaiser Health Tracking Poll Election
2008 (conducted February 7 16, 2008)
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Priority of Health Care Over Time
Percent naming health care one of two most
important issues for government to address
Nov. 2007 24
Note "Don't know" responses were included in the
base when percentages were calculated.
Source NBC/Wall Street Journal Harris Polls
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Major Plan? Minor Plan? No Plan?
Thinking ahead to the presidential election in
2008, which ONE of the following three things
would you like to see in a health care reform
proposal from a candidate?
A new health plan that would make a major effort
to provide insurance for nearly all of the
uninsured but would involve a substantial
increase in spending
General Public
18-29 year olds
A new health plan that is more limited and would
cover only some uninsured groups, but would
involve less spending
A health plan that would keep things basically as
they are
Source Kaiser Health Tracking Poll Election
2008 (conducted February 7 16, 2008)
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Cost vs. Coverage
Which ONE of the following health care issues
would you most like to hear the presidential
candidates talk about?
Reducing the costs of health care and health
insurance
Expanding health insurance coverage for the
uninsured
Total
Improving the quality of careand reducing
medical errors
Republicans
Democrats
Independents
Reducing spending on government programs like
Medicare and Medicaid
Source Kaiser Health Tracking Poll Election
2008 (conducted February 7 16, 2008)
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Cost vs. Coverage
Which ONE of the following health care issues
would you most like to hear the presidential
candidates talk about?
Reducing the costs of health care and health
insurance
Expanding health insurance coverage for the
uninsured
General Public
18-29 year olds
Improving the quality of careand reducing
medical errors
Reducing spending on government programs like
Medicare and Medicaid
Source Kaiser Health Tracking Poll Election
2008 (conducted February 7 16, 2008)
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Though Public May Support Coverage Goal
Do you favor or oppose the federal government
doing more to help provide health insurance for
more Americans?
Favor
Oppose
Dont know/ Refused
Source KFF/HSPH The Publics Health Care Agenda
for the New Congress and Presidential Campaign
(conducted November 9-19, 2006)
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No Agreement on Best Solution
When forced to choose Percent who say MOST
preferred option
Percent who FAVOR
Tax credits for businesses
Expanding state government programs such as
Medicaid
Expanding Medicare to people under age 65
Tax credits for uninsured individuals
Requiring businesses to offer insurance to
employees
National single-payer plan
Source Kaiser Family Foundation/Harvard Health
Care Agenda for the New Congress Survey November,
2004
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Mixed Views of Health Insurance Mandates
Requiring individuals to purchase insurance role
for employers, the government and insurance
companies
Requiring individuals to purchase insurance
Requiring parents to cover their children
Support
Support
Support
Oppose
Oppose
Oppose
Source NPR/KFF/HSPH The Public on Requiring
Individuals to Have Health Insurance (Feb. 14-24,
2008)
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Health Care and the Candidates
Thinking about all of the candidates for
president in 2008, regardless of political party
or who you intend to vote for, which candidate
BEST represents your own views on health care?
(open-ended)
And still thinking about all of the candidates
for president, regardless of political party and
whether or not you agree with their views, which
candidate to you think is placing the BIGGEST
EMPHASIS on health care issues? (open-ended)
General Public
Dont know/ None
18-29 year olds
Hillary Clinton
Barack Obama
John McCain
Mike Huckabee
Source Kaiser Health Tracking Poll Election
2008 (conducted February 7-16, 2008)
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Issues Are Only One Part of What Determines Votes
Overall, which of the following will be MOST
important when you decide who to vote for?
Perceptions of the candidates leadership
abilities, character, values, and experience
The candidates stands on the issues
Both (Vol)
Dont know/ Refused
Note Responses based on registered
voters Source Kaiser Health Tracking Poll
Election 2008 (conducted February 7-16, 2008)
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www.health08.org
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Places to Turn

• www.kff.org/kaiserpolls
• www.health08.org
• www.kaiseredu.org/tutorials_index.aspPublicOpinio
  n1
• www.newsu.org/polling
• www.aapor.org
• www.ncpp.org
• www.washingtonpost.com/polls
• www.abcnews.go.com/pollingunit
• www.pewresearch.org
• www.pollster.com

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Growth of Cell Phones
15 unreachable
Tripled in 3 years
Phoneless Adults
Source Blumberg, Stephen J. and Julian V. Luke.
Wireless Substitution Early Release of
Estimates, National Health Interview Survey, CDC.
Jan Jun 07
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So Who Are We Leaving Out?
Among each age
Among each living arrangement
Roommates
Adult living alone
Adult with children
Rent
Own home
Source Blumberg, Stephen J. and Julian V. Luke.
Wireless Substitution Early Release of
Estimates, National Health Interview Survey, CDC.
Jan Jun 07
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Coverage Bias for 18-29 Year Olds?
Political Views
Landline
Cell Only
Registered to vote
52
49
32
35
Republican/lean Republican
Democrat/lean Democrat
52
59
61
65
Thought a lot/some about campaign
55
52
Dissatisfied with the state of the nation
Source Pew Research Center The Impact of
Cell-Onlys on Public Opinion Polling.
Thursday, Jan 31, 2008