American Statistical Association (ASA) Committee on Energy Statistics

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American Statistical Association (ASA)
Committee on Energy Statistics

• Guy F. Caruso, Administrator
• Energy Information Administration (EIA)
• Washington, DC
• October 20, 2005

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Since the Last Meeting

• Increased activity due to Hurricanes Katrina and
  Rita
• Released Winter Fuels Outlook for 2005-2006
• New Regional Short-Term Energy Outlook
• Modifications to the National Energy Modeling
  System (NEMS)
• Monthly survey of natural gas production
  (EIA-914) available on the Web
• EIA now under a continuing resolution and
  awaiting news about the budget
• External Review Team now active
• EIA making progress with the development of the
  new Home Page

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Increased Activity Due to Hurricanes

• Number of requests for forecasted data
• Interest from financial institutions using EIA
  data
• References to EIA data from the Media
• Number of testimonies before Congress
• Daily Reports of impact available on the Web

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Hurricanes Katrina and Rita Shut In Significant
Gulf Crude Oil Production
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Hurricanes Katrina and Rita Shut In Significant
Gulf Natural Gas Production
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Hurricanes Katrina and Rita Initially Shut Down
Most Gulf Refinery Capacity
Projections
000 bbl/d
c/gal
Retail Gasoline Price
Retail Diesel Price
Shut In Capacity
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Outlook for Winter 2005-2006

• Crude oil prices
• 64.50/barrel
• Spot West Texas Intermediate
• Gasoline prices
• 2.56/gallon
• U. S. Average Regular Retail, All Formulations
• Natural gas
• 15.95/mcf
• U.S. Average Residential Delivered Price

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New Regional Short-Term Energy Outlook

• The August 2005 STEO included regional
  projections for
• Heating oil, propane, and gasoline prices
• Demand and prices for natural gas and
  electricity
• Independent Expert Reviews on released models may
  be complete by spring 2006
• There will be a presentation by Margot Anderson
  on STEO Performance Measures

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Natural Gas Heating Bills Are Projected to Rise
by Between 32 and 61
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Winter Heating Oil Expenditures Are Projected to
Increase by Over 30
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Modifications to the National Energy Modeling
System

• Extending NEMS projection period from 2025 to
  2030
• Incorporated impact of selected provisions from
  the recently passed Energy Policy Act of 2005
• Updated industrial sector technology files to
  reflect the 2002 Manufacturing Energy Consumption
  Survey (MECS)

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Natural Gas Production Survey

• EIA-914 monthly survey data now available on the
  Web (January 2005 through July 2005)
• Beginning January 2005, CO2 removed from Texas
  production data
• Preston McDowney will present an update on the
  simulation study

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EIAs FY 2006 Budget

• EIA is currently under a continuing resolution
• EIA requests 85.9M for FY06
• Increase of 2.1M from FY05
• 369 FTE Ceiling

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In FY06, EIA

• Projects Web site usage to exceed 25 million user
  sessions
• Will print only four multi-fuel periodic
  reports  the Annual Energy Outlook, the Annual
  Energy Review, the Monthly Energy Review, and the
  International Energy Outlook
• Will continue to offer a Print-on-demand service
• Continues to encourage small business
  participation to meet DOEs small business goal

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External Review Team

• Team members are
• Kathy Cooper
• Denny Ellerman (Chair)
• Jay Hakes
• Paul Joskow
• Phil Sharp
• Met on July 20, 2005
• Will meet again November 21 and 22
• Expected to report in the spring

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Development of the New Home Page

• Extensive usability testing
• Feedback from ASA committee was extremely helpful
• Now in testing within EIA
• Immediate concerns are
• Functioning links
• No fatal errors
• Planning to go live by November 30

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