Second, central banks earn interest on their assets, through which they fund themselves. ... Central banks do not hold common stock or risky assets. ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation
As previously discussed money supply directly affects interest rates and, thus, the cost of borrowing.
Due to the connection between interest rates, investment and saving, the money supply can act as an important gauge for the economy (see e.g. the IS-LM model).
However, money supply also affects inflation and we observe a certain trade-off between short-run output growth and medium-run inflation
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1. Overview
In the following, we will discuss the mechanism through which the actual money supply is set.
The players in the process of money creation are the central bank, commercial banks as well as their depositors and borrowers
The natural starting point for the discussion of money supply is a central banks balance sheet
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2. A central banks balance sheet
The Feds balance sheet e.g. is roughly organized as follows
Assets Liabilities
ltOther Items in the balance sheet (e.g. Gold) gt
Government Securities
Discount Loans
ltOther Items in the balance sheet gt
Currency in Circulation
Reserves
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2. A central banks balance sheet
1. Liabilities
The mentioned liabilities currency in circulation and reserves are also referred to as monetary liabilities.
Both are an important determinants of the monetary supply. If either one of them increases, the supply of money increases also, et v.v.
Together with the monetary liabilities of a countrys treasury (which, if at all, consists primarily of coins in developed nations), currency in circulation and reserves build the monetary base.
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2. A central banks balance sheet
1.1. Currency in Circulation
While currency (in particular banknotes) is technically a liability for a central bank, it can only be exchanged for the same currency at a central bank in most countries today.
In history currency used to be backed by real values such as Gold. Today the only reason why people accept these central bank IOUs in the first place is because they believe that they are accepted as means of payment.
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2. A central banks balance sheet
1.2. Reserves
Commercial bank-owned reserves are liabilities for a central bank, since a central bank is required to pay these on demand to commercial banks
As we have seen, these reserves consist of required and excess reserves and as we will see, an increase in reserves leads to an increase in the money supply. Reserves pay no interest to the banks in the U.S.
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2. A central banks balance sheet
2. Assets
Assets are important for two reasons
First, changes in a central banks assets lead to changes in reserves and, thus, changes in money supply
Second, central banks earn interest on their assets, through which they fund themselves. Any earnings in excess of their cost of operation is usually transferred to the national treasuries.
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2. A central banks balance sheet
2. 1. Government securities
Central banks do not hold common stock or risky assets. Instead the hold government bonds usually in form of short run (3 month) bonds.
Other than risk considerations central banks are usually expected not to buy extensive government debt as this results in inflationary pressures.
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2. A central banks balance sheet
2. 2. Discount loans
If central banks provide loans to the banking sector they show up as assets on their balance sheet.
In the U.S. the Fed earns the discount rate as return on these loans from commercial banks.
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3. Control of the monetary base
A central bank cannot control the entire supply of money to an economy. However, it can control the monetary base.
The monetary base B (also high-powered money) can be written as
Where C indicates currency and R indicates reserves.
A central bank has a variety of options to change the monetary base, which will be discussed in the following using a simplified balance sheet for the central bank and its trading partners.
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3. 1. Open market operations
The primary tool of monetary policy are open market operations
The purchase of a bond through a central bank is an open market purchase and the sale of a bond is an open market sale.
In principle, a central bank can purchase/sell bonds from the banking sector or from the non-bank public.
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3. 1. Open market operations
1. Open market purchase from a bank.
A central bank can e.g. buy a bond (lets say worth a 1,000) directly from a commercial bank in exchange for reserves
For the bank this indicates an increase in their reserves of 1,000 matched by a decrease of their securities of 1,000
For the central bank securities increase by 1,000 and so do its reserve liabilities.
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3. 1. Open market operations
1. Open market purchase from a bank.
Central Bank Assets Liabilities
Government Securities 1,000
Reserves 1,000
Commercial Bank Assets Liabilities
Reserves 1,000
Government Securities - ,1000
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3. 1. Open market operations
2. Open market purchase from the non-bank public
A central bank can e.g. buy a bond (again worth a 1,000) alternatively from other partners (such as traders) in exchange for lets say a check, which this partner deposits into his banks checking account.
Three parties balance sheets are affected in this instance, the central banks, the private banks and the private trading partners.
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3. 1. Open market operations
2. Open market purchase from the non-bank public
First, the trading partners securities decrease by 1,000 while its checkable deposits increase by 1,000. Note that the checking account is an asset for the private trader
Trader Assets Liabilities
Checkable Deposits 1,000
Government Securities - ,1000
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3. 1. Open market operations
2. Open market purchase from the non-bank public
Second, the private bank processes the central banks check with the central bank increasing the private banks reserves, while at the same time its checkable deposit liabilities increase by 1,000
Commercial Bank Assets Liabilities
Government Securities ,1000
Reserves 1,000
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3. 1. Open market operations
2. Open market purchase from the non-bank public
Finally, the central banks securities and reserve liabilities increase by 1,000 just as before.
Central Bank Assets Liabilities
Government Securities ,1000
Reserves 1,000
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3. 1. Open market operations
2. Open market purchase from the non-bank public
The net effect of both of these procedures on the monetary base is the same
No additional currency has been issued, but reserves have increased by 1,000 in both instances.
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3. 1. Open market operations
2. Open market purchase from the non-bank public
A central bank technically could also buy securities from the private public in exchange for currency.
In this instances, reserves would be unaffected, but the currency in circulation would increase. This procedure is depicted below
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3. 1. Open market operations
2. Open market purchase from the non-bank public
Central Bank Assets Liabilities
Government Securities 1,000
Currency in circulation 1,000
Trader Assets Liabilities
Currency 1,000
Government Securities - ,1000
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3. 1. Open market operations
2. Open market purchase from the non-bank public
The net effect of both of this strategy on the monetary base is given by
Reserves remain unchanged, while currency in circulation increases by 1,000
Independently of which strategy is used, the monetary base increases by 1,000.
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3. 1. Open market operations
3. An open market sale
Open market sales can use the same three channels and are the exact reverse of each procedure.
Open market sales always decrease the monetary base.
Hard to predict in the case of sales and purchases is the effect on reserves, since a buyer or seller of securities might decide to use either currency or checkable accounts in the transaction.
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3. 1. Open market operations
4. Shifts between currency and checkable deposits
Independently of whether a seller (buyer) of a bond is initially compensated (initially pays) using cash or holdings in her/his checkable account, she/he can always shift funds from one asset to another.
In this case the systems reserve holdings are affected. Assume for example that a seller of a bond is initially compensated with currency, but then deposits these 1,000 in her/his checkable deposit.
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3. 1. Open market operations
4. Shifts between currency and checkable deposits
Trader Assets Liabilities
Checkable Deposits 1,000
Currency - 1,000
Commercial Bank Assets Liabilities
Reserves 1,000
Checkable Deposits ,1000
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3. 1. Open market operations
4. Shifts between currency and checkable deposits
Similarly if a seller of a bond is compensated in checkable deposits and then withdraws money from the private bank, overall reserves will decrease.
Thus, while the overall size of the monetary base does not change, its composition depends also on the publics withdrawal behavior.
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3. 2. Discount Loans
Other than open market operations a central banks lending to the private banking sector affects the monetary base. In the U.S. this lending is processed through the discount window.
Usually if a discount loan is provided to a bank, the Fed increases that private banks reserves (increasing the monetary base). As a matter of fact, discount loans are often granted so that banks can meet their reserve requirements over night.
If a discount loan is paid back, the monetary base decreases correspondingly.
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3.2. Discount loans
Central Bank Assets Liabilities
Discount Loans 1,000
Reserves 1,000
Commercial Bank Assets Liabilities
Reserves 1,000
Discount Loans 1,000
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3. 3. Other factors affecting the monetary base
A central bank does not necessarily have full control over the monetary base
In the U.S. so-called floats (i.e. temporary increases in reserves in the process of check-clearing at the Fed) and Treasury deposits at the Fed (i.e. shifts of treasury funds from commercial banks to deposits at the Fed which decrease the monetary base) are not fully under control of the Fed
Further certain foreign exchange interventions can affect the monetary base as well.
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4. Multiple Deposit Creation the role of private banks
For every unit of base money a central bank supplies to the private banking sector, the creation of checkable deposits on behalf of these banks multiplies this amount further increasing larger definitions of the money supply such as M2 or M3. This process is known as multiple deposit creation.
Lets first start with the central bank a single private bank. How does money creation on behalf of private banks work?
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4. Multiple Deposit Creation the role of private banks
1. Since checkable deposits are unaffected by this transaction, required reserves do not increase and the bank has an additional 1,000 dollars at its disposal, which it has no interest in keeping, since it provides no return.
2. Lets, thus , assume, the bank lends these funds out to the private sector and deposits this loan in the borrowers checking account
Commercial Bank A Assets Liabilities
Reserves 1,000
Government Securities - ,1000
Loans ,1000
Checkable Deposits 1,000
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4. Multiple Deposit Creation the role of private banks
3. Since checkable deposits can be used as means of transactions, the creation of checkable deposits has added to the money supply as defined in M2 and M3 in addition to the increase in the monetary base.
Why is the initial infusion of reserves needed for the bank to be able to give out such a loan?
At the current state, the bank in our example still has excess reserves of 1,000 at its disposal. However, these reserves are not going to stay with the bank for long The borrower will either withdraw them or write checks against them to pay off whatever he originally obtained the loan for. Thus, a bank cannot give out loans fully safely in excess of their free reserves.
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4. Multiple Deposit Creation the role of private banks
4. Checkable deposits can be traded against deposits within a bank but at larger they are traded against checkable deposits in other banks, so that this is a good point to introduce another bank.
Lets assume that the borrower who obtained his loan from bank A in the above example buys a machine and transfers these funds from the checking account in bank A to the sellers account in Bank B.
Lets for simplicity assume, that Bank B beforehand had no excess reserves and is obliged to hold 10 (i.e. 100) of each dollar its checkable deposits.
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4. Multiple Deposit Creation the role of private banks
Bank B apparently has no incentive to hold reserves in addition to the required reserves. Thus, it can loan out 900 to borrowers and put them into their checkable deposits
Commercial Bank B Assets Liabilities
Reserves 1,000
Checkable Deposits 1,000
Commercial Bank B Assets Liabilities
Required Reserves 1,000
Loans 900
Checkable Deposits 1,900
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4. Multiple Deposit Creation the role of private banks
As in the case of bank A borrowers will make use of the funds the obtain from these loans and the corresponding funds (900) will be withdrawn from bank B. Lets say these end up in the checking deposits of bank C
Again bank C is required to hold 10 of these 900 (i.e. 90) as required reserves. The remaining 810 can again be given out as loan to somebody, etc.
These process could go on (mathematically forever). The below table summarizes this procedure of multiple deposit creation for an initial infusion of 1,000 worth of reserves and a required reserve ratio of 10.
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4. Multiple Deposit Creation the role of private banks
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4. Multiple Deposit Creation the role of private banks
Thus, an in initial increase in bank reserves leads to a much higher increase in deposits, since banks only have to hold a certain fraction of their checkable deposits as reserve requirements (note that this effect is independent of whether a bank makes a loan or buys a security)
This phenomenon is called the simple deposit multiplier, which is given by
Where D stands for deposits, R stands for reserves and r is the reserve requirement ratio.
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4. Multiple Deposit Creation the role of private banks
In our example the change in reserves sparked by the central banks open market purchase was 1,000.
The required reserve ratio was equal to 10, so that deposits increased by a factor of 10, or by 10,000
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4. Multiple Deposit Creation the role of private banks
Proof of the simple deposit multiplier (a more formal proof can be obtained from the limiting behavior of a so-called geometric series)
We assumed that banks hold no excess reserves, so that the total amount1 of required reserves RR will be equal to the actual reserves R held by banks
RRR lt1.gt
We further know, that the amount of required reserves is the fraction of total checkable deposits in the banking system
RRrD lt2.gt
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4. Multiple Deposit Creation the role of private banks
By substitution of lt2.gt in lt1.gt, it follows that
Now, if we assume r to be a constant, we can express changes in both sides by (this is technically equal to the total differential of this equation)
q.e.d.
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5. Critique of this simple model
The simple model suggests that a central bank is in perfect control over the money supply through open market policy, discount loans and reserve requirements.
However, the actual procedure is less mechanical than suggested by the model. If at any point proceeds from loans or securities are kept in cash instead of being deposited or if excess reserves are not fully used to buy loans or securities, the process stops, which makes the multiplier much less predictable
Both are plausible scenarios and a central bank, hence, is not the only player in determing the actual money supply. Banks, borrowers and depositors behavior matter as well - as we will see in the following