WINS Workshop Gordon Bell Microsoft Research

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WINS WorkshopGordon BellMicrosoft Research

• February 24-25, 1998
• Disclaimer The author is here to learn about
  WINS. As such any advice is offered with the
  hope that it may be useful in developing such an
  industry.

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Outline

• Cyberspace the big picture
• Moores Law Bells corollary on computer class
  formation because you may be creating a class
• System on a chip a basis for WINS
• WINS their apps

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Cyberspace top view
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Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace and
covered by a hierarchy of computers!
Body
Continent
Region/ Intranet
Cars phys. nets
Home buildings
Campus
World
Fractal Cyberspace a network of networks of
platforms
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Cyberization interface to all bits and process
information

• Coupling to all information and information
  processors
• Pure bits
• Bit tokens
• State places, things, and people
• State physical networks

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Cyberspace A spiraling quest in 3D real space
Computation
Cyberization
Communication
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Everything will be in Cyberspace

• Is this a challenge? Our goal? Our quest? or
  Fate?
• Cyberization enables new computing platforms
  thatrequire new networks to connect them
• Infrastructure supports the content
• Three evolutionary dimensions

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Moores Law Bells Corollary on Computer
Class Formation
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Gains if 20, 40, 60 / yearin Mops, Mbytes,
Gbytes/10
1.E21 1.E18 1.E15 1.E12 1.E 9 1.E6
1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
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Bells Evolution Of Computer Classes
Technology enables two evolutionary paths 1.
constant performance, decreasing cost 2.
constant price, increasing performance
Mini
1.26 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade 1/1.26 .8 1.6
4x/3 yrs --100x/decade 1/1.6 .62
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Bells law of computer class formation to cover
Cyberspace

• New computer platforms emerge based on chip
  density evolution
• Computer classes require new platforms, networks,
  and cyberization
• New apps and content develop around each new
  class
• Each class becomes a vertically disintegrated
  industry based on hardware and software standards
  AFTER IT FLAILS AROUND 5-10 YEARS

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Bells Nine Computer Price Tiers

• 1 embeddables e.g. greeting
  card
• 10 wrist watch wallet computers
• 100 pocket/ palm computers
• 1,000 portable computers
• 10,000 personal computers (desktop)
• 100,000 departmental computers
  (closet)
• 1,000,000 site computers (glass house)
• 10,000,000 regional computers (glass
  castle)
• 100,000,000 national centers

Super server costs more than 100,000Mainframe
costs more than 1 million an array of
processors, disks, tapes, comm ports
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Price, performance, and class of various goods
services
Computer price 10 x 10 class Computer
weight .05 x 10 class Car price 6K x 1.5
class Transportation artifact prices
k x 10 type (shoes,...cars,... trains,...
ICBMs) French Restaurants(t'95) f(ambiance,
location) x 25 x 1.5 stars
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Computer Classes
1OM
Scalables, built from PCs and SANS
1M

100K
VC
10K
1K
TVC
TC
100
10
Wallet
Home PC
Palm top
Mini-super
Super WS
Minicomputer
Mainframe
Video game
Desktop PC
PT program.
Large, Scalable
PDA/Camera
Prof. Workstation
Scalable Multi-
Notebook/Laptop
Supercomputer
Handhld game
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Platform, Interface, Network Computer Class
Enablers
The Computer Mainframe tube, core, drum, tape,
batch O/S direct gt batch
Mini Timesharing SSI-MSI, disk, timeshare
O/S terminals via commands POTS
PC/WS micro, floppy, disk, bit-map display,
mouse, distd O/S WIMP LAN
Web browser, telecomputer, tv computer PC,
scalable servers, Web, HTML Internet
Network Interface Platform
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Future Computer Classes
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A next generation based on Microsystems
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Predictable computers

• All kinds of not very interesting network
  (server-based) computers
• PC substitutes for internet access
• Telephone-based internet access
• Television set-based internet access
• Home Area Network
• Body Area Network (e.g. GTEs BAN) on body,
  Guardian Angel
• System-on-a-chip industry

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The Microsystems Industry

• customers building MicroSystems for embedded
  applications e.g. autos, PC radio, PDAs,
  telephones, set top boxes, videophones, person
  monitoring, room and home monitoring
• MicroSystems foundries
• existing computer system companies with large
  software investments
• custom design companies that supply "core" IP and
  take the systems responsibility
• Microsystems companies supplying a standard
  intra-chip architecture, complete with busses,
  processors, peripherals, memories, and much
  software!
• STANDARDS, STANDARDS, STANDARDS!

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IP companies that are fab-less and chip-less that
supplying designs

• ECAD companies that synthesize logic and provide
  design services (e.g. Cadence, Synopsis)
• circuit wizards who design fast or low power
  memories (e.g. VLSI Libraries), analog for audio
  (also a DSP application), radio and TV tuners,
  radios, GPS, and especially
• processors from RISC to DSP and multimedia
• apps that require software and algorithm
  understanding (e.g. protocols, MPEG)
• old style proprietary interface companies e.g.
  RAMbus with proprietary circuits and signaling
  standards
• microelectormechanical systems (MEMS) components
  are the KEY!

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WINS What would an industry look like?
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The dimensions

• Wireless-ness (signal cable free)
• Powerlessness how many batteries
• Networks
• Platform vs peripheral
• Processing, memory, storage
• New transducers speech, glasses
• Sensors and actuators
• Standards, standards, standards

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Wireless we have plenty of bandwidth provided
we use it right

• Power vs distance trade-off
• Short distance implies more aggregate B/W
• minutes or seconds/event HDTV

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Sensors, actuators/emitters, sensor-actuators

• Medical P, T (body), blood gas, ECG
• Mobile location (GPS, compass), ambient (P,T),
  acceleration,
• Personal A/V (and eyes) including IR, body
  head position (6 degrees),
• Speech and glasses
• Radar, sonar, beacons,
• Spectrum, chemical, etc. analyzers

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Platform or a peripheral?

• Will this network be an entity unto itself?
• How does it couple into Cyberspace?
• How is the network coupled to computers?

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"Standards" Types
x

• industry i.e. de facto one company - IBM, Wintel
• wanna be de facto - ABM
• proprietary VendorIX - n-UNIX dialect platforms
• trade-mark UNIX ATT gtNovellgt??
• PR standards - OSF COSE 1170
• OPEN, de jour, or faux proprietary ?
  standards
• implicit cross-platform proprietary databases
  apps
• explicit cross-platform development environments
  
• de jure gov't internl (CCITT, IEEE, ITU, OSI,
  POSIX, )
• government mandated - ADA, DES, OSI, VHDL
• cross-industry forum - ATM, JPEG MPEG
• consortia - Xopen, OSF, OMG
• company centered consortia - Java, Sparc,
  Poweropen
• chaotic - Internet MOSAIC

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Some apps
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Why we need wireless
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Evolving umbilicals connectingcomputers
components network
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Storing all weve read, heard, seen
Human data-types /hr /day
(/4yr) /lifetime read text, few pictures 200 K
2 -10 M/G 60-300 G speech text _at_120wpm 43 K
0.5 M/G 15 G speech _at_1KBps 3.6 M 40 M/G 1.2
T video-like 50Kb/s POTS 22 M .25 G/T 25
T video 200Kb/s VHS-lite 90 M 1 G/T 100 T
video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G 20 G/T 1 P
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Memex
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Guardianintercom,records what we read, see,
and hear protects us fromourselves and others
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Not shown ECG GPS
Libretto, .5mm
PCS Pilot
Compass altimeter
Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera Swiss Army Knife
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A device that would have saved me from a heart
attack
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Where am I, exactly? And will I live to enjoy
next meal?

• Photo of GPS
• Watch and ekg

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For openers audio, pix, T, P, ECG, 1 GB
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Steve ManninCyberspace
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CMU wearable computers
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Moores law is less important than MEMS
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BAN, PAN or whatever for people networks

• Temperature monitoring with the flu
• Saved me from a heart attack
• Where is the person, exactly a baby sitter
• Lets interact ala Barney

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MedtronicsImplantedCardioplasticstimulatorcard
io- recorder
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4 Experts Predict BionicsWired, February 1997

• Hi-Fi Cochlear Implants 2005
• Bionic Limbs 2013
• Artificial Vision 2040
• Bionic Person (unlikely)

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Health Number one market need must be open!
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Your husband just died, heres his black box
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People surrogates
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Mobile videophone
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Honda Robot
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