Employment, Income and Population Change in Curry County

1
Employment, Income and Population Change in Curry
County

• May 6, 2009
• Mallory Rahe
• Extension Community Economist
• Oregon State University

2
Understanding EmploymentCompared to its
neighbors Curry Co. has a smaller employment base
Curry county employment stood at 11,672 in 2005
and contracted slightly to 11,620 jobs in 2007
3
Curry county has grown faster than the national
average but trails Oregon state average
employment growth over the period 1969-2007
Employment growth rates in Curry County by decade
show that from 2000 2007 the county has had a
higher employment growth than both the state and
national averages
4
Understanding employment change during different
business cycles the following five slides use
shift-share analysis to look at Curry Countys
employment by industry
2005-2007
0.4 decline
5
Rapid growth from 1971-1978 Local industries
added more jobs than the national average
employment growth, manufacturing and construction
were two exceptions Employment growth in
Services and Retail trade accounted for 45
percent (842 of the 1,891) jobs that were added.
The two industries grew 3 times and 2 times as
fast as the national average respectively

• Government jobs- federal civilian positions and
  state and local government -added another 446
  jobs to the county
• Curry farm jobs were expanding as the national
  farm sector was employing fewer people. Together
  with strong employment growth in the Agricultural
  services, forestry, fishing, and related
  activities added an additional 396 jobs.

6
Growth slows in Curry County from
1978-1991 Local growth is driven solely by
national growth, Curry had an unfavorable mix of
employment- more jobs were held in industries
that were declining nationally. Growth was
further slowed as local industries added fewer
jobs than the national averages

• The county loses 585 manufacturing jobs,
  nationally the manufacturing sector is employing
  fewer people during this period, but employment
  falls faster locally
• The service industry adds 994 jobs and increases
  its share of employment in the county from 14.7
  to 23.6
• Construction jobs in the county nearly double,
  locally the industry grows over 4 times faster
  than the national average and now represents 7.2
  of local employment
• Farm employment also declines in the county as
  95 farm jobs are lost during this period

7
1991-1999 period of moderate growth
Local growth is spurred by strong national
growth, Curry had a favorable mix of employment-
more jobs were held in growing industries than
declining industries. Growth was slowed as local
industries added fewer jobs than the national
averages

• Services, Retail Trade, and Agriculture service,
  Forestry and Fishing industries added the most
  jobs in the county
• Retail trade, Services, Construction add fewer
  jobs at a slower pace than the national average
  in these industries
• Manufacturing, Transportation and Public
  Utilities lose jobs locally while these
  industries added employment nationally
• The county loses 117 Federal Civilian jobs

8
2001-2005 produce 2.2 annual employment growth
rates Larger shares of Curry countys employment
are found in industries that are growing
nationally ½ of the jobs were added during this
period as Currys industries grew faster than
their respective national averages

• Construction industry grows three times as fast
  as national average, this industry added 306
  jobs, the most of any reported industry
• Accommodation and Food Services added 175 jobs
  and grew at a rate almost twice the national
  average in this industry
• Real Estate, Rental and Leasing industry grew
  slower than the national average but still added
  an additional 118 jobs locally

9
2005-2007 slight decline in total
employment Manufacturing and Other services add
jobs while most industries reduce employment The
three industries (construction real estate,
rentals, and leasing accommodation and food
services) that added the most jobs from 2001-2005
slowed during the next two years and did not meet
the national average growth rates
10
The job ratio has been increasing, as Curry
county grows job creation has outpaced population
increases
Historically Curry has always had a lower job
ration than the state or nation. Part of this
difference reflects the countys older
population. The recent rise in the employment
to population ratio represents growth in both
full and part-time jobs alike.
11
Understanding Population Curry county in a
period of stable population growth, slower than
the state average
Curry countys population has at times grown
faster than the state average. Since 1995 the
county has been in a period of slower population
growth. Population peaked at 22,082 persons in
2005.
12
Curry County had a 1.8 population growth due to
people moving into the county. Like its
immediate neighbors the countys changing age
structure resulted in more deaths than births.
Map prepared by Mallory Rahe, Oregon State
University Extension, data source US Census July
1, 2008 population estimates
Oregon State averaged 10.8 growth from 2000 to
2008
13
Understanding Income Curry County has increased
total personal income and per capita income over
time
Curry countys total personal income base was
678,933 million (current dollars) in 2007.
The countys per capita income was 31,214
(current dollars) or 81 percent of the national
average and 89 percent of the state average.
Real Total Personal Income in the county has
increased 15.5 percent from 2000-2007. These
increases have been similar to the statewide
increases. Curry countys percent of the
statewide total personal income is 0.52 a number
almost identical to the countys share of the
statewide total in 1969. Real Per Capita Income
has increased 12.1 from 2000-2007, this growth
has allowed Curry county to come 4.6 percentage
points closer to reaching the statewide average.
14
Proprietors earn 15 of all county earnings.
Private industry contributes 78 of all county
earnings
Note Proprietors income reflects business
profit and includes adjustments for the
depreciation of inventory valuation, capital
consumption, and the wage and salary of the
proprietor are also deducted. Farm proprietors
income can be very volatile and showing negative
income is not uncommon. Private earnings and farm
earnings also include the respective amounts of
proprietor earnings in each category. Source
Regional Economic Information System, BEA, Table
CA05N, Data for 2001 and 2005 use 2002 NAICS
codes, 2007 data uses the 2007 updated NAICS.
15
Contributions to private earnings by industry
show the importance of manufacturing, retail
trade, and construction
2001 2005 2007
Contributions by industry as a share of all
private industries has remained relatively
stable In 2001, wood product manufacturing
represented 13 of all private earnings in the
county, data suppression prevents understanding
how this number has changed
Note Blanks reveal data suppression by Bureau of
Economic Analysis to protect firm
confidentiality Source Regional Economic
Information System, BEA, Table CA05N. Data for
2001 and 2005 use 2002 NAICS codes, 2007 data
uses the 2007 updated NAICS.
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Additional Data Slides

• The following slides include additional data
  drawn from http//www.pnreap.org/Oregon/
• Bureau of Labor Statistics
• Bureau of Economic Analysis

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Note Proprietors income reflects business
profit and includes adjustments for the
depreciation of inventory valuation, capital
consumption, and the wage and salary of the
proprietor are also deducted. Farm proprietors
income can be very volatile and showing negative
income is not uncommon. Private earnings and farm
earnings also include the respective amounts of
proprietor earnings in each category. Source
Regional Economic Information System, BEA, Table
CA05N, Data for 2001 and 2005 use 2002 NAICS
codes, 2007 data uses the 2007 updated NAICS.