A Challenge for Every State

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A Challenge for Every State

• Can we raise graduation requirements and
  graduation rates at the same time?
• Can we pursue a Dual Agenda of higher graduation
  standards and higher graduation rates
  simultaneously?

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High school graduation rates generally remain
steady or rise as states raise expectations
Sources Greene, Jay P. Leaving Boys Behind
Public High School Graduation Rates, Manhattan
Institute, Civic Report No. 48, April 2006
Greene, Jay P. Public High School Graduation and
College-Readiness Rates 19912002, Manhattan
Institute, Education Working Paper No. 8,
February 2005.
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San Jose, CA Unified School DistrictMany More
Grads Now Complete A-G
Source California Department of Education,
DataQuest Web site, http//data1.cde.ca.gov/dataqu
est/.
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Implementing A-G Did Not Lead to a Decrease in
Graduation Rates
Source California Department of Education,
DataQuest Web site, http//data1.cde.ca.gov/dataqu
est/.
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Moving Forward High Standards High Graduation
Rates

• Achieve, Inc. and Jobs for the Future
• Funded by the Carnegie Corporation of New York
• Conducted policy audits in Indiana,
  Massachusetts, and North Carolina in 2006-2007
• Interviewed senior policymakers and education
  leaders
• Convened focus groups
• Reviewed state laws, regulations and reports and
  promising practices in assessment/accountability
  emerging around the country
• Commissioned paper Identifying Potential
  Dropouts Key Lessons for Building an Early
  Warning Data System
• Robert Balfanz and colleagues, Johns Hopkins
  Studies in Indianapolis, Boston and rural
  counties in North Carolina to study key
  predictors of dropouts

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The Foundation for the Dual Agenda

• Align standards and courses of study with the
  demands of college and careers
• Collect and report 4-year and 5-year cohort
  graduation rates

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Achieve and JFF Framework Acknowledges Capacity
Needs

• Graduating students college and career-ready will
  require significant increases in teaching and
  learning capacity
• Achieve and JFFs pilot year framework focused on
  state policy levers data, accountability and new
  school options
• Next steps for research on the dual agenda should
  focus on building teacher capacity and providing
  student supports

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Three-Point Policy Framework for the Dual Agenda

• Reward and recognize schools that hold onto
  struggling students and graduate them college-
  and work-ready
• Intervene in persistently low performing schools
  based on low achievement and high dropout rates
• Open new schools and support strategic programs
  designed to improve college-ready graduation
  rates for low-income and struggling students

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Indiana A Three Point Dual Agenda Action Plan

• State accountability for graduation rates as well
  as high standards
• Significant interventions in high schools losing
  the most students
• Capacity to create and support education options
  that help youth succeed in school and transition
  to college

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Massachusetts A Four Point Dual Agenda Action
Plan

• Increase Number of Students Completing MassCore
  and Earning COM and COP
• Recognize and Reward Schools that Hold onto
  Struggling Students and Graduate All
  College-Ready
• Place a Priority on and Dedicate Resources to
  Intervention in Persistently Low-Performing
  Schools
• Open New Schools Designed to Improve
  College-Ready Graduation Rates for Low-Income and
  Struggling Students

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North Carolina A Framework for Next-Generation
High School Accountability Indicators

• Recognize and reward schools that help students
• Stay in school and graduate on time
• Successfully complete the North Carolina
  Future-Ready Core Course of Study
• Earn career-ready industry-recognized credentials
  and/or college credit
• Succeed in postsecondary education and careers

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Emerging Issues in the Three-Point Policy
Framework

• Reward and recognize schools that hold onto
  struggling students and graduate them college-
  and work-ready
• Incorporating cohort rates, early warning
  indicators
• Operationalizing college and career readiness
• Intervene in persistently low performing schools
  based on low achievement and high dropout rates
• Prioritizing resources and political will
  district role
• Open new schools and support strategic programs
  designed to improve college-ready graduation
  rates for low-income and struggling students
• Creating/stimulating new school developer
  capacity creating new pathways/options

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Emerging Issues in the Three-Point Policy
Framework

• Reward and recognize schools that hold onto
  struggling students and graduate them college-
  and work-ready
• Incorporating cohort rates, early warning
  indicators

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Incorporating Cohort Graduation Rates and Early
Warning Indicators

• Stay in school and graduate on time
• 4-year cohort graduation rate
• 5-year cohort graduation rate
• Percentage of on-track 9th-graders who earn
  enough credits to be promoted to 10th grade
• Challenges Incorporating cohort grad rates (e.g.
  Indiana), increasing the weight given to the
  cohort grad rate (e.g. North Carolina), ensuring
  the targets are set high enough (e.g.
  Massachusetts), building early warning systems
  (all)

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What Longitudinal Cohort Studies of Dropouts
Tells Us

• While there is no single pathway that every
  dropout follows, there are common patterns,
  common crisis and common signposts, too. Dropouts
  differ not only in how they begin on the path to
  dropping out, but where they end it.
• Longitudinal studies consistently identify a
  certain set of general educational risk factors
  as highly predictive of dropping out. There might
  not be one single leading indicator that all
  dropouts exhibit first.
• The transition to middle school and high school
  is critically important. Many dropouts begin to
  show warning signs and downward trends in 6th
  grade or 9th grade. Dont wait until 9th grade to
  begin looking for warning signs!
• Transition-year failure begins very early.
  Powerful risk factors poor prior achievement
  and behavior can be observed during the 1st
  month of school.  
• School factors have an independent influence on
  whether incoming freshmen will graduate from high
  school or fall off track on the way to a diploma.

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Early Warning/On-Track Indicators
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Early Warning/On-Track Indicators
Source As cited, Diplomas Count. Education Week.
June 2006 Consortium of Chicago School Research,
2005.
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Emerging Issues in the Three-Point Policy
Framework

• Reward and recognize schools that hold onto
  struggling students and graduate them college-
  and work-ready
• Incorporating cohort rates, early warning
  indicators
• Operationalizing college and career readiness

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Operationalizing College and Career
ReadinessMultiple Performance Indicators

• North Carolina
• Successfully complete the Future-Ready Core
  Course of Study (new graduation requirements
  aligned with the demands of postsecondary
  education and careers)
• Percentage of students who earn the Future-Ready
  Core
• Percentage of students who perform at the
  proficient level or higher on the end-of-course
  exams in English, math, science, social studies
• Percentage of students who successfully complete
  the fourth year of mathematics aligned with
  entrance in community colleges and state
  four-year colleges and universities

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Operationalizing College and Career
ReadinessMultiple Performance Indicators

• Earn career-ready industry-recognized credentials
  and/or college credit
• Percentage of graduates who earn a minimum number
  of college credits before graduation (through AP,
  IB, Early College, Learn and Earn, dual
  enrollment, etc.)
• Percentage of recent graduates who earn an AA
  degree within 1 year
• Succeed in postsecondary education and careers
• Percentage of recent graduates who need
  postsecondary remediation
• Percentage of recent graduates who persist in
  postsecondary education
• Percentage of recent graduates who attain
  career-ready certificates, AA and BA degrees
• Percentage of recent graduates who enter the
  military or find meaningful, family-supporting
  employment within three years of graduation

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Operationalizing College and Career
ReadinessMultiple Performance Indicators

• Massachusetts
• College-and Work-Ready Indicators
• Completing the MassCore
• Earning Certificate of Mastery or Certificate of
  Occupational Proficiency
• Participating in Advanced Placement or
  International Baccalaureate courses and earning
  minimum scores on exams
• Earning college credits while in high school

• Graduation Indicators
• On-time promotion rates
• Percentage of students who enter ninth grade off
  track (or become off track early on) and who have
  by the end of ninth grade accumulated the course
  credits for promotion to the tenth grade
• Percent of first-time freshman who have on-time
  credit accumulation by the end of tenth grade
• Percent of dropouts who reenroll

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Five Challenges in Operationalizing Multiple
Indicators

• Invest in P-20 longitudinal data systems
• Determine what courses are needed for graduation
  and make these the basis for school
  accountability
• Incentivize voluntary core with scholarships/aid,
  college placement/entrance, communications
• Measurement Add quality EOCs to upper-level
  courses in the college- and work-ready course of
  study or measure certain key courses
• Select additional indicators carefully (e.g.
  industry-recognized credentials or earning
  college credits)

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1. Invest in P-20 Longitudinal Data Systems

• Add a unique student identifier
• to enable the accurate calculation of who dropped
  out, who transferred and who graduated within
  four or five years of entering 9th grade
• Match student records from early learning through
  K-12 and through higher education and the
  workforce
• Identify and develop early warning indicator
  systems

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2. Determine What Courses Count for Graduation
and School Accountability

• In Indiana, students in the class of 2011 are
  placed in the Core 40 diploma option, but schools
  are held accountable for performance on the 10th
  grade GQE. Our recommendations to ensure schools
  are incentivized for the right goals
• Fully develop and fund EOC assessments throughout
  grades 9-12 to ensure that Core 40 standards
  raise achievement and readiness
• Make Core 40 success rates, ECA achievement rates
  and high school graduation rates primary
  indicators in accountability

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3. Incentivize Voluntary Core Curriculum

• In Massachusetts, the MassCore will be a
  voluntary option for local districts to
  implement. Our recommendations to incentivize
  participation
• Communicate widely to students, educators, and
  the public about the MassCore and the Certificate
  of Mastery (COM) and the Certificate of
  Occupational Proficiency (COP).
• Create incentives for students and districts to
  pursue the MassCore, COM, and COP by phasing in
  aligned higher education admissions requirements
  providing scholarships for low-income students
  completing MassCore and waiving placement tests
  for students who earn the COM and/or COP.

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4. Measure the Core Courses with High-Quality
Assessments

• In North Carolina, existing EOCs do not match the
  Future-Ready Core and are not strong enough. Our
  recommendations to increase quality
• Add EOCs in upper-level English, World History
  and integrated math sequence, adjustment in
  science may be warranted
• Consider modularizing the EOC tests
• Add more rigorous multiple choice items
• Include open-ended and constructive response
  items
• Incorporate performance assessments throughout
  the year
• Support high quality formative assessments

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5. Select Additional Indicators Carefully

• Students should earn college credits while in
  high school
• Determine the optimal number of college credits
  to reward schools whose students earn these
  credits
• Examine data on the effects of earning college
  credits while in high school on college entrance
  and completion
• For purposes of school accountability, select and
  reward the subset of rigorous industry-recognized
  credentials that prepare students for
  family-supporting careers
• Review the career and technical education courses
  of study and their relationship to rigorous
  industry-recognized credentials

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Emerging Issues in the Three-Point Policy
Framework

• Intervene in persistently low performing schools
  based on low achievement and high dropout rates
• Prioritizing resources and political will
  district role

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Prioritizing Resources and Public Will to
Intervene to Turn Around Low-Performing High
Schools

• Few states have taken action to intervene in
  chronically low-performing high schools
• Our recommendations
• Identify the most pressing group of high schools
  losing the most students/low performance and
  take immediate action
• To increase effectiveness, states should partner
  with/consider role for school districts

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Turn Around Efforts Need to Accelerate

• Delegate authority to state and district
  education leaders to intervene
• Place the priority for action on the subset of
  high schools failing to meet both graduation and
  performance benchmarks
• Provide adequate resources and funding to support
  the states efforts to turn around all
  low-performing high schools
• Compress the timeline for improvement, target
  redesign strategies based on school needs,
  require alternative management and governance for
  schools that fail to make progress, and include
  school closure as an option

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Emerging Issues in the Three-Point Policy
Framework

• Open new schools and support strategic programs
  designed to improve college-ready graduation
  rates for low-income and struggling students
• Creating/stimulating new school developer
  capacity creating new pathways and options

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Creating New School Developer Capacity and
Creating Pathways to Graduation for Struggling
Students

• Incremental approaches may not help us realize
  big goals.
• States need to ensure a sufficient supply of new
  schools to help students meet higher standards.
  Our recommendations
• Conduct data analysis to clarify scope of demand
  for new options and best approaches to increase
  supply
• Create a public/private school innovation fund to
  support the spread of instructional practices and
  school models with track records of success
  improving outcomes for struggling students.
• Open early college high schools and use other
  forms of dual enrollment as a strategy to
  increase college readiness and postsecondary
  success for underrepresented youth.
• Allow adjusted cohort rates for second chance
  schools designed for overage, under-credited
  students and returning dropouts.

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Open New Schools Designed to Improve
College-Ready Graduation Rates for Low-Income
Struggling Students
Currently 130 ECHSs in 23 states, enrolling
16,000 students
Source Vargas, Joel. 2006. Creating and
Sustaining Early College High Schools State
Policies that Support 9-14 Education. The State
Education Standard.Washington, DC National
Association of State Boards of Education.
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