A Look at Todays Higher Education Trends:

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A Look at Todays Higher Education Trends

• How will they impact the University?

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Why is Scanning so Important?
Strategic planning rests upon analysis of the
points of interaction between the University and
the external environments in which it functions.
An understanding of environmental conditions
provides a realistic context for the formulation
of internal goals and strategies.
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As strategic planning adds a special emphasis on
identifying those forces external to the
organization that can affect the attainment of
its goals,
assessment of the environment becomes an
important aspect of organizational planning.
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• Now A Greater emphasis on
• Need to recognize uncertainty
• Necessity to consider a range of possible
  conditions rather than a single future.

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Understand the external environment and the
interconnections of its various
sectors.Translate this understanding into the
institution's planning and decision-making
processes.
Environmental Scanning Assists Decision-makers
to
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• Trend Analysis
• Important to identify critical emerging trends
  and derive their implications
• 2. Construct plans (scenarios) to take advantage
  of the opportunities they offer, and/or
• 3. Ameliorate their consequences if they may
  negatively impact higher education.

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• We are being bombarded by tumultuous forces for
  change as we go into the 21st Century
• Virtual classrooms
• Global communications
• Global economies
• Telecourses
• Distance learning
• Corporate classrooms
• Increased competition among social agencies for
  scarce resources
• Pressure for institutional mergers
• State-wide program review

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Powerful Change Forces in Higher Education in
Recent Years

• A rapid increase in competition.
• Colleges and Universities within and beyond
  countries and from private providers
• A significant decrease in funding from government
  sources.
• Shifts in perception Education not really a
  public good but a private benefit, and that it is
  not really an investment but a cost.
• Greater government scrutiny.
• Performance assessments increasing

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Powerful Change Forces in Higher Education in
Recent Years

• A growing consumer rights movement.
• The rapid spread of communications and
  information technology into every aspect of our
  lives.
• Whereas universities and colleges once held a
  monopoly on high-quality, up-to-date knowledge,
  this is now available (for a price) on the
  internet from all manner of providers.

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Changing Demographics of the American Population
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Diversity(Race, Ethnicity, Gender,
Nationality)

• Colleges and Universities are expected to be
  leaders and examples of diversity
• Institutions expected to disseminate tolerance
  and understanding of societal differences by
  creating a campus model i.e University of
  Michigan Affirmative Action Case, Yale
  orientation program
• Increased Scholarships and Grants on campus
• Increased programs in order to support a diverse
  student body
• Pre-college programming targeted at increasing
  students from underrepresented groups attendance
  and retention at colleges and universities

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Latino/Hispanic Population in America

• 42 million Latinos in America
• Grows by 5,000 per day
• Since 1980, the number of Hispanics enrolled in
  colleges has more than tripled, to nearly 1.5
  million outpacing the rate of Hispanic population
  growth
• Hispanics' share of all bachelor's degrees
  awarded has risen from about 2.3 percent to about
  6.2 percent (Since 1980)

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RI Diversity

• Rhode Island has highest percentage among the
  states of its population who are immigrants to
  America.
• Providence, with the largest school district in
  the state, has 83 of its students coming from
  ethnic minority backgrounds.

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RI Latino Population 1990 - 2000
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Latino Population in RI

• 9.4 of overall RI population largest minority
  group in RI (African Americans 4, Asian 2.5)
• Grew 11 over the course of 12 years (1990
  2002) largest growth in all of New England
• Expected to continue to grow at unprecedented
  rates

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RI College Enrollment as Related to Minority
Attendees
Source Rhode Island Board of Governors of Higher
Education
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Rhode Island Population (Men)
Source US Census Bureau
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Rhode Island Population (Women)
Source US Census Bureau
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High School Graduation Rates

• Total number of high school graduates
• Increased 3 between 87-88 and 2000-01
• Projected to increase 11 between 2000-01 and
  2012-13
• Public high school graduates
• Increased 3 between 87-88 and 2000-01
• Projected to increase 11 between 2000-01 and
  2012-13
• Private high school graduates
• Increased 4 between 87-88 and 2000-01
• Projected to increase 18 between 2000-01 and
  2012-13

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InstitutionalEnrollment
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Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions

• Total Enrollment in Degree Granting Institutions
  increased 17 from 1988 to 2000
• Between 2000 and 2013, total enrollment is
  expected to increase approximately 19

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Enrollment at Degree-Granting Institutions

• Enrollment Between 2000 2013
• By Age
• Increase 22 for students who are 18-24 years old
• Increase 2 for students who are 35 years
• Public vs. Private
• 18 in public institutions
• 20 in private institutions
• By Sex of Student
• Increase 15 for men
• Increase 21 for women
• By Attendance Status
• Increase 22 for full-time students
• Increase 13 for part-time students
• By Level
• Increase 18 for undergraduates
• Increase 19 for graduate students
• Increase 27 for first-professional students

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Enrollment in Degree Granting Institutions
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Enrollment in Degree Granting Institutions
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Shift from an Industrial to a Technologically
Driven, Knowledge-Based Economy
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Technology

• Changing rapidly and exponentially
• Environment of increasing disruptions with
  introduction of new technologies
• Consumers demanding cutting edge technology in
  and outside the classroom
• Demand for real time answers to questions Any
  Time, Any Place
• Online course registration financial aid
  registration as well as residential life issues
  - moving from e-mail, e-commerce and e-campus to
  e-everything
• Long term reduction in cost to the university
  (however, initial investment usually high)
• Corporations demand for knowledge workers that
  are technologically savvy

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The Change in Expectations of Higher Education
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Changing Learning Environments Expectations

• Interdisciplinary learning becoming more
  widespread and essential
• Distance Learning is used as a means of
  increasing access and revenue streams
• Experiential education as a means to supplement
  traditional classroom learning

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Changing Learning Environments Expectations

• Public partnerships reductions in loan amounts
  for certain jobs grants and scholarships
• Public and Private partnerships with universities
  in order to form a mutual benefit to the
  university, agency, and community
• Transition to wired classrooms to use multi media
  learning tools

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Changing Learning Environments Expectations

• Increased emphasis on assessment and learning
  outcomes.
• Quality assurance in the 21st century will rest
  on
• Accredited institutional capacity
• Educational and organizational effectiveness
• Demonstrated results in the form of better
  learning
• Conceptions of quality wont be founded on
  tradition, but on evidence-based results-oriented
  standards.
• Standards for quality will build UP from learning
  outcomes for every student and around the
  institutions capacity and effectiveness to add
  value to a learners life through education.

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Changing Market Structure of Higher Education

• Subject to external forces that impact other
  industries in America including the economy
• Competitive forces include new players in the
  higher education marketplace proprietary
  institutions professional schools
• Distance Learning Institutions University of
  Phoenix defying the original brick and mortar
  vision of a college
• Compete for better students and faculty
• Competition for private grants in order to
  further their research mission and support their
  faculty

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Changing Market Structure of Higher Education

• Focus on core competencies of colleges and
  universities in order to create a brand name
• Competitive forces force higher education to
  search for ways to improve their service delivery
  in order to remain competitive in the market
  place
• Higher Education must respond to demands society
  projects and their own customers in order to
  transform itself into an all-inclusive entity
  that provides superior services and learning to
  students, parents, and in turn, future employers

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Public Higher Education Financing
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Federal vs. State Spending in Higher Education

• Federal
• Grants
• Loans guarantees and subsidies
• Tax benefits for students and parents
• Contribute 12 of current fund revenues of
  colleges and universities

• State
• Bulk of operating support
• Contribute well over 20 of current fund revenues
  of colleges and universities

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Reduction in Public Higher Education Financing

• Decline in state and federal appropriations
• Funds used for different social programs social
  security (aging baby boomers), the prison system,
  homeland security
• Shift from direct funding (appropriations) to
  indirect funding (tax credits)
• Tuition increasing at an average of 10 at public
  universities approximately twice that of
  inflation

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Reduction in Public Higher Education Financing

• Longest term of sustained high tuition increases
  in the history of higher education
• Reduction in state support for universities and
  reduced income from endowments and from donors to
  both private and public universities coupled with
  congressional and state legislative pressures to
  cut operating costs
• Moving toward a revenue-driven, market-responsive
  restructuring of higher education.

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Public 4-Year Degree-Granting Institutions
Expenditures in 2001- 02 dollars

• Total Expenditures (99-00 to 2012-2013)
• Increase 43 (188 Billion) Middle Alternative
• Increase 35 (178 Billion) Low Alternative
• Increase 49 (196 Billion) High Alternative
• Per Student
• Increase 16 (30,800) in Middle Alternatives
• Increase 12 (29,900) in Low Alternatives
• Increase 16 (31,000) in High Alternatives
• Educational and General Expenditures
• Increase 38 Overall (From 99 billion to 135
  billion)
• Increase 12 per student in FTE enrollment
  (20,000 to 22,300)

Each of the projections (Middle, Low, High)
are based on different assumptions for state and
local governments per capita. Middle Alternative
projections had revenues increase between 2.0 and
8.9 Low Alternative is based upon on a per
capita increase of between .2 and 4.5, High
Alternative is based on a per capita increase of
between 1.9 and 10.7 increase
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2003-2004 Average Public College Tuition
Taken from The Chronicle of Higher Education
2003 Almanac
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Public College Tuition
Taken from The Chronicle of Higher Education
2003 Almanac
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Increasing Influence of Public Policy
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Political Agenda

• Competition with the Bush Administrations No
  Child Left Behind Act
• Increased spending on homeland security measures
  both in the federal budget as well as for on
  campus compatibility to new federal security
  regulations
• Competition with other government programs. i.e.
  aging population prison system, etc
• Current presidential race has had/will have major
  impact on the educational initiatives at the
  federal level including funding, financial aid
  structure, etc.

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Current Educational Initiatives and their
Potential Impact on the Institution of Higher
Education

• No Child Left Behind
• Increase the number of qualified candidates for
  college coupled with increase in number of high
  school graduates in general capacity issue
• Increase in tuition increases public institution
  enrollments

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Increasing Expectations for University Assistance
in Addressing National, State, Regional Needs
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Earned Degrees Conferred (Projections 2000-01 to
2012-13)

• Associates degrees
• Increase 21 overall
• Increase 7 for men
• Increase 30 for women
• Bachelors degrees
• Increase 21 overall
• Increase 16 for men
• Increase 25 for women
• First-professional degrees
• Increase 20 overall
• Increase 16 for men
• Increase 26 for women

• Masters degrees
• Increase 19 overall
• Increase 17 for men
• Increase 20 for women
• Doctors degrees
• Increase 5 overall
• Decrease .1 for men
• Increase 12 for women

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State and National Needs Increasingly Dictate
Higher Education Agenda

• Increasing expectations for higher education to
  contribute to workforce development for the
  knowledge economy.
• Demand will be for just in time learning and
  customized just for you learning.
• Changing needs of the population for more
  education, for more people, more often.

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References

• Society for College and University Planning
  July 22, 2003 James Duderstadt, Professor
  Emeritus, University of Michigan
• National Center for Education Statistics,
  Projections of Education Statistics to 2013,
  32nd Edition, October 2003
• Same Classroom, Different Price Chronicle of
  Higher Education, 9/19/03
• Boomers, Gen-X-ers, Millenials. Understanding
  New Students EDUCAUSE, July/August 2003
• Smith, Peter. Curricular Transformation Why we
  need it.How to Support it.Change,
  January/February 2004
• Scott, Geoff. Effective Change Management in
  Higher Education, Educause Review,
  November/December 2003, V. 38, Number 6
• United States Census Bureau
• Morrison, James Environmental Scanning
• Pritchett, M.S. (1990) Environmental Scanning in
  Support of Planning and decisionmaking Case
  studies at Selected Institutions of Higher
  Education
• The College Board