Were the 1994 Expos Just Lucky?

1
Were the 1994 Expos Just Lucky?

• Estimating the real skill level of a team
• Phil Birnbaum www.philbirnbaum.com

2
The W-L Record and Luck

• Imagine a .500 teams record as a series of 162
  coin tosses
• HeadsWin, TailsLoss
• Standard Deviation of wins 6.3 games
• In a 30-team league, 5 teams will be better than
  87-75
• 1.5 teams will be more extreme than 94-68 or
  68-94, just by chance

3
Statistical Evidence of Luck

• Suppose a team is lucky and wins more games than
  its talent. How does this happen?
• Can break down into five non-overlapping ways

4
Five Ways to be Lucky

• Hitters having unexpected career years
• Pitchers having unexpected career years
• Team scoring more runs than expected by their
  batting line
• Beating Runs Created estimate, perhaps by
  clutch hitting
• Team allowing fewer runs than expected by the
  oppositions batting line
• Getting out of jams while opposition chokes
• Team winning more games than expected by its Runs
  Scored/Runs Allowed
• Pythagorean Projection -- scoring runs in games
  where theyre most needed

5
Players Having Career Years

• Players can play over their heads
• Shows up in a players career stats as a career
  year
• Example Jim Clancy, 1982
• From 1980 to 1984, Component ERAs were 3.60,
  4.71, 3.36, 3.96, 4.05
• Estimate Clancy was 31 runs better than expected
  in 1982
• At 10 runs per win, the 1982 Jays were lucky by
  three games because of Clancys career year

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Players Having Career Years

• This is new research
• Algorithm to take the previous two years and next
  two years, and estimate what the player should
  have done in the middle year
• Rough idea average the four years, regress to
  the mean, and adjust for playing time
• Work in progress probably not too accurate, but
  good enough to distinguish lucky from unlucky in
  most cases
• Hopefully similar to examining each case by
  hand
• Algorithm available on request

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The 1994 Expos

• The 1994 Expos went 74-40. Were they lucky or
  unlucky? And by how much?
• Well go through the five steps.

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1994 Expos

• Hitters having career years
• Overall, the Expos hitters created 76 runs more
  than expected
• Moises Alou 25, Wil Cordero 18, Larry Walker
  16
• Mike Lansing 8 had the worst off-year

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1994 Expos

• Pitchers having career years
• Overall, the Expos pitchers were 49 runs better
  than expected
• Butch Henry 20, Jeff Fassero 10, Ken Hill 9
• Kirk Rueter 8 had the worst off-year

10
1994 Expos

• Expos undershot their runs created by total -29
  runs
• Expos opponents undershot their runs created by 3
  runs
• Expos overshot their Pythagorean Projection by
  2.85 wins, or 28 runs

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1994 Expos

• Add it all up
• 76 hitters career years
• 49 pitchers career years
• -29 runs created
• 3 opposition runs created
• 28 pythagorean projection
• Total 128 runs

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1994 Expos

• The Expos were lucky by 128 runs
• Thats 12.8 wins call it 13 wins
• Instead of 74-40, we estimate their real talent
  was 61-53

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1994 National League East

• Actual Luck Projected
• Expos 74-40 13 61-53
• Braves 68-46 1 67-47
• Mets 55-58 4 51-62
• Phillies 54-61 - 3 57-58
• Marlins 51-64 - 1 52-63

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Fun Stuff

• Which were the luckiest and unluckiest teams from
  1960-2001?
• Some results surprising to me for example, the
  unluckiest team

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The 1995 Toronto Blue Jays

• The 1995 Blue Jays
• Hitters were 72
• Pitchers were 50
• RC 43
• Opposition RC 6
• Pythagoras 24
• Total -196 runs in only 144 games
• The Jays were 56-88 should have been 76-68

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Top Unlucky Teams

• 62 Mets 40-120 61-99 -21
• 79 As 54-108 74-88 -20
• 95 Blue Jays 56- 88 76-68 -20
• 87 Indians 61-101 81-81 -20
• 98 Mariners 76- 85 95-66 -20
• 69 Expos 52-110 66-96 -14

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Luckiest Teams

• The luckiest team, 1960-2001 was, by a very wide
  margin

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The 2001 Seattle Mariners

• The 2001 Seattle Mariners
• Hitters were 127
• Pitchers were 116
• RC -21
• Opposition RC 3
• Pythagoras 49
• Total 273 runs!
• The Mariners were 116-46 should have been 89-73
• That same year, the Angels were 11 games unlucky,
  and should have been 86-76
• The Angels finished 41 games behind Seattle
  should have been only 3 games
• 38 game difference from just luck!

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The Luckiest Teams

• 01 Mariners 116-46 89-73 27
• 98 Yankees 114-48 92-70 22
• 60 Pirates 95-59 76-78 19
• 92 As 96-66 77-85 19
• 85 Cardinals 101-61 83-79 18
• 62 Dodgers 102-63 84-81 18
• 94 Expos 74-40 61-53 13
• 93 Blue Jays 95-67 88-74 7

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The Best Teams

• Which were the best teams in terms of talent?
• That is, after all the luck was stripped out,
  which teams remained truly great?

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The Best Teams

• Only 3 teams from 1960-2001 had an expected
  talent of 100 games
• This seems too small, but makes sense for
  instance, there are many players who go 2-for-4,
  but none who are truly .500 hitters
• But 21 teams were expected 100-game losers

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The Best Teams

• 1969 Baltimore Orioles 102
• 1998 Atlanta Braves 102
• 1997 Atlanta Braves 100
• 1970 Baltimore Orioles 99
• 1974 Los Angeles Dodgers 98
• 1975 Cincinnati Reds 98
• 1992 Toronto Blue Jays 95
• 1982 Montreal Expos 92

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The Worst Teams

• 1965 New York Mets 54
• 1977 Toronto Blue Jays 54
• 1972 Texas Rangers 57
• 1969 San Diego Padres 57
• 1977 Seattle Mariners 57
• 1971 San Diego Padres 58
• 1964 New York Mets 58
• 1970 Montreal Expos 65

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Lucky and Unlucky Players

• Unusual seasons are not always luck can be
• Playing injured
• Cheating (Norm Cash)
• Sudden maturation
• Sudden loss of effectiveness (Steve Blass)
• Learning a new skill or new pitch
• For instance, consider the unluckiest player from
  1960-2001, who cost his team 6 games by playing
  below expectations

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Dave Stieb, 1986

• Component ERA
• 1984, 2.77
• 1985, 2.75
• 1986, 5.86
• 1987, 3.78
• 1988, 2.81
• Why did Stieb have a bad 1986?
• I couldnt find any evidence of injury. Could it
  really have been just bad luck?

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The Unluckiest Players

• 1986 Dave Stieb -60
• 1999 Jeff Fassero -56
• 1997 Albert Belle -53
• 1997 Scott Brosius -50
• 1973 Steve Blass -50
• 1980 Dennis Lamp -48
• 1962 Ron Santo -47
• 1997 Sammy Sosa -45
• 2000 Roy Halladay -41
• 1971 Carl Morton -38

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The Luckiest Players

• 1972 Steve Carlton 63
• 1980 Mike Norris 60
• 1961 Norm Cash 60
• 1963 Dick Ellsworth 58
• 1993 John Olerud 58
• 1996 Ed Correa 54
• 1970 Billy Grabarkewitz 54
• 1991 Cal Ripken 52
• 1978 Ross Grimsley 46
• 1970 Cito Gaston 46

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Slides/spreadsheets will be at

• www.philbirnbaum.com/luck.ppt
• www.philbirnbaum.com/luckall.xls
• www.philbirnbaum.com/players.xls