Forecasting What its really all about

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ForecastingWhat its really all about

• By Laurie Lofgren
• Vice President Planning Forecasting Warnaco
  Intimate Apparel

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Warnaco Strong Brands
Swimwear
Intimate Apparel
Sportswear
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Warnaco Diverse Customers
Department Stores
Specialty Retailers
Chain Stores
Mass Merchants
Membership Clubs
International
Europe
Canada
Mexico
Asia
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Main Focus

• Tools
• Process Disciplines
• SOP
• Collaboration
• Continuous Improvement

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Tools

• Build the foundation
• System is the enabler
• Information Visibility

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Core Systems
Opportunity for Warnaco
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System POS Analysis Why Invest?

• Increase Visibility
• Increase Sales
• Increase ROI

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POS Analysis 1

• Independent Store Account Imbalance by door
  grade

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POS Analysis 2

• Key Department Store Retailer 1 vs. Retailer
  2 differing results by account

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POS Analysis 3

• Dept vs. Chain Store Fashion Color sell thru

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System Demand PlanningWhy invest?
Pyramid based on Consumer Spending

• Reduce Inventory
• Improve Service
• Increase Collaboration

Collect ALL Relevant Information
Provides Flexibility Easy To Use
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DSFM View 1
Historical Bookings
Seasonality Curve
Account Forecast
Retail Inventory
System Adjusted Forecast
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DSFM View 2
POS Based System Forecast
POS History
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DSFM View 3
MTD Shipments Orders
Current Open Bulk Orders
Historical Cancellations
Historical Shipments
Historical Door Distribution
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DSFM View 4
Historical Forecast
Forecast Accuracy
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DSFM View 5
Customer Forecast Unit Receipt Plan
?
?
?
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System Inventory PlanningWhy invest?
Daily Forecast Updates

• Reduce Inventory
• Improve Service
• Collaboration
• (Capacity Planning)

Automatic PO Generation
Exception Reporting
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• Reporting Systems Provide Visibility

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Emphasize Reporting
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A successful implementation.

• Clear Business Plan
• Detailed Project Plan
• Allocate the Resources
• Prioritize Execute
• Training Training
• Continuous Refinement

DSFM
DSRP
Sales Planning
DS Stores
SOP
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Process Disciplines

• Achieve results
• SOP a must

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SOPWhat does it mean at Warnaco?

• Formalized Structured Process
• Occurs on a Monthly basis
• Synchronize all Plans
• Cross functional ownership

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SOP ProcessDemand Planning Must Dos

• Utilize Forecast Accuracy
• Collaboration with key accounts
• Reconcile demand production
• Synchronize all plans
• Monthly Demand Meetings

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SOP Process Collaboration Communication

• Synchronize Reconcile
• Replenishment OTB Demand Plan
  Financial
• Production Capacity Inventory
  
• Joint Ownership Smart Decision Making
• General Mgmt Sales Marketing
  Operations
• Involvement at all levels

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SOP Disciplines Warnaco USIA

• Standard Operating procedures
• Cut to Order - New Fashion
• Opps Confirm New Doors Model Builds
• Critical Principles
• One Number Forecast
• All Demand is Forecasted
• Supply Demand

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SOPWhy is Warnaco doing this?

• Ensure Ongoing Improvements
• Establish Best Practices
• Informed Decision Making
• Increase teamwork

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Success Stories for Warnaco USIA in 2006!

• Improved Service
• Increased Inventory Turn
• Reduced SLOBs
• Increased Sales

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Whats Next for Demand Planning at Warnaco?

• System Roll Out Europe
• Expand Account Collaboration
• Advanced utilization POS
• Roll out Best Practices
• Evolve SOP

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Main Focus

• Tools
• Process Disciplines
• Collaboration
• Continuous Improvement

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Q A