Impact of Global Economic Crisis

1
Impact of Global Economic Crisis on Some
Economic and Financial Egyptian Indicators
2
Monthly indicators

• CPI and PPI reflect the global economic and
  financial crises impacts specially PPI which show
  a negative sign as a result of crude oil price
  deterioration . On the other hand CPI reflects
  the government efforts to lower inflation rate
  from the highest level 23.6 in Aug. 2008 to
  13.5 Feb. 2009

3
Monthly indicators (cont.)

• Growth rate of liquidity reflects that
  conservative actions taken by Central Bank of
  Egypt helped to contain the effect of the first
  wave of the global crises . From Oct. 2008
  ,domestic liquidity growth rate reached around
  15 and declined to 9.5 in Jan. 2009.
• Change in the Egyptian Exchange index (CASE
  30) reflect the recognized effect of global
  crises as the index shows lowest level in Feb.
  2009 due to the decline of foreign investment in
  Egypt as investors tried to support their
  financial position in their home countries.

4
Monthly Indicators
Source CAPMAS
Price Indices Inflation Rate For Both CPI PPI
5
Reverse Trend of Inflation of PPI
Monthly Indicators
Source CAPMAS
6
Growth Rate of M0 M1 M2
Monthly Indicators
Source CBE

7
Change of the Egyptian Exchange Index (CASE 30)
Monthly Indicators
Source Egyptian Exchange
8
Quarterly indicators

• Quarterly indicators reflect the impact of global
  crises on some component of balance of payments
  as follows
• -Trade balance fell to its record deficit in 2nd
  quarter of 2008/2009 of 9 compared with pervious
  one.
• -Exports proceeds declined about 33 in2nd
  quarter compared to 1st quarter of 2008/2009

9
Quarterly indicators (cont.)

• petroleum exports dropped sharply 54.5 from 1st
  to 2nd quarter of 2008/2009
• Net portfolio investment in Egypt declined to the
  lowest level in second quarter 2008/2009 compared
  with 4th quarter 2007/2008 (from -22.9 to
  -3902.4 US mn) due to decrease of the foreign
  investments.
• Overall balance reversed from 459 US mn to
  -1005.8 US mn

10
Balance of Payments
Source CBE
Quarterly Indicators
11
Balance of Payments (contd.)
Quarterly Indicators
Source CBE
12
Balance of Payments (contd.)
Quarterly Indicators
Source CBE
13
Balance of Payments (contd.)
Quarterly Indicators
Source CBE
14
Annual indicators

• Annual growth rate of GDP is expected to decline
  from around 7.0 ( average of the last tree years
  )to about 4.8 in 2008/2009
• The growth rate of some key sectors showed a
  decrease during 2008/2009 . restaurants hotel
  sector declined sharply to 0.6 in 2008/2009
  compared with 15.6 in 2007/2008

15
Some Basic Macroeconomic Indicators
Annual Indicators
Source MOP
16
Some Basic Macroeconomic Indicators
Annual Indicators
Source MOP