A Changing United States

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A Changing United States

• The demographic and social context within which
  PC(USA) operates in 2002

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• Presented October 24, 2002 to the
• Task Force on Peace, Unity, and Purity
• of the Presbyterian Church (USA)

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Barbara Everitt Bryant

• Research Scientist,
• University of Michigan Business School
• Director, Bureau of the Census 1989 - 1993

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Sources

• U.S. Bureau of the Census (2000 and earlier
  decennial censuses and Current Population
  Surveys) http//www.census.gov
• Presbyterian Panel PC(USA) Research Services
  (2001 and 2002)
• Putnam, Robert D. Bowling Alone (New York Simon
  Schuster, 2000)

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• The United States is growing about 1.3 per year,
  which means PC(USA) is not matching the nation.
• In 210 years (1790 to 2000), the U.S. grew from a
  population of 3.9 million to 281.4 million.
• The population estimate for the United States on
  Oct 21, 2002 was 288,327,461 (www.census.gov)

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Population Growth 1790 - 2000
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Population growth is very unevenly spread
geographically
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100 Years of Population Shifts
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Reapportionment 1990 2000
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Population growth is greater in metropolitan than
in rural areas, particularly in the suburbs
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Growth and Share
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Nine Metropolitan Areas of 5 Million or More

• NY-NJ-LI-CT-PA (21.2)
• LA-Riverside-Orange CA (16.4)
• Chicago-Gary-Kenosha IL-IN-WI(9.2)
• Washington-Baltimore DC-MD-VA-WV (7.6)
• San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose CA (7.0)

• Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City PA-NJ-DE-MD
  (6.2)
• Boston-Worcester-Lawrence MA-NH-ME-CT (5.8)
• Detroit-AA-Flint MI (5.5)
• Dallas-Ft Worth TX (5.2)

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An increasingly diverse population
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Our population is aging
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Median Age of the Population
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Increased median age is more because of aging of
Baby Boom (born 1946-64) than because of
increasing longevity
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Generations

• GI Generation--WWII veterans
• Baby Boom--Children of WWII veterans born
  1946-64, now 38-57 at the peak of their careers.
  About 30 of the population
• Generation X--Much smaller than Boomers, now
  young adults
• Generation Y--Children of the Boomers
  immigrants. Now teenagers and in 20s.
  Multi-ethnic. About 20 of population.

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Immigrants keep the nation younger. Median age

• 38.5 Whites
• 35.3 TOTAL POPULATION
• 32.3 Asians
• 30.5 African Americans
• 28.5 American Indians
• 26.6 Hispanics

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Foreign-born

• 1970 5
• 1990 8
• 2000 11

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Language other than English spoken at home

• 1990 13.8
• 2000 17.0

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Illegal immigrants now estimated as 7-8 million
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Mobility Lived 5 Years Ago

• 1990 Different house 47
• Different county 9
• 2000 Different house 43
• Different county 18

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Household Structure
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Families With Children
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Education(Persons 25 and over)
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Labor Force Participation
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Drive alone to get to work (employed only)

• 1980 64
• 1990 73
• 2000 76

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Social Capital

• Social capital is the way people relate to each
  other and their communities through
  organizations, volunteer activities, informal
  interactions.
• Social capital is declining. Later generations
  are not as involved as GI Generation was.

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Why the decline?

• Growth of TV, then VCR/DVD
• Growth of spectator sports
• Increase of women in the labor force
• Job pressures
• Family pressures
• Mobility

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Church Attendance Correlates with Measures of
Social Capital

• Voting
• Volunteering
• Giving donations
• Participation in civic activities

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Member v Pastor Differences from the Presbyterian
Panel
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Which is more important to you? (February 2002)
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Which would you prefer? A congregation where
(February 2002)
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The General Assembly sent to presbyteries for
their vote an amendment to the PC(USA)
constitution to permit each presbytery to ordain,
at its discretion, sexually-active gays and
lesbians as ministers. Do you want your
presbytery to approve or reject this amendment?
(August 2001)
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The General Assembly sent to presbyteries for
their vote an amendment to the PC(USA)
constitution to permit each presbytery to ordain,
at its discretion, sexually-active gays and
lesbians as ministers. Do you want your
presbytery to approve or reject this amendment?
(August 2001)
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Do you want your Presbytery to approve or reject
an amendment to permit each presbytery to ordain,
at its discretion, sexually-active gay and
lesbians as ministers? ( REJECTAugust 2001)

• 51 All Pastors
• 57 Male Pastors
• 25 Female PastorsBig difference!!

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Looking towards 2050 (February 2002)
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Observations

• Presbyterian membership is not growing at rate of
  nation, even considering many new immigrants come
  from Catholic backgrounds
• Presbyterian membership losses are in line with
  the decline in social capital

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Observations, contd

• PC(USA) needs to reach out to non-white residents
  and immigrants.
• Younger adults, often reached through their
  children, are the source of growth.

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Presbyterians are nearly equally divided between
those who want a big tent church that tolerates
diversity of beliefs and practices and those who
want a strict church that requires more uniformity
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PC(USA) is not alone. The national electorate is
also nearly evenly divided along
liberal/conservative lines
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PC(USA) must put its energy into activities,
messages, and missions that appeal to both groups
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This may change with time

• Those more open to tolerance of diversity and
  ordination of homosexuals are among
• Women
• Younger members
• Highly educated
• Female Pastors

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Pastors are more open to tolerance of diversity
and different views than their congregations...
but they are more apt to be pessimistic about the
future of PC(USA)
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A Changing United States

• The demographic and social context within which
  PC(USA) operates in 2002