Incumbent Presidents and Political Business Cycles

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Incumbent Presidents andPolitical Business
Cycles
Nixon v. McGovern 1972
Carter v. Reagan 1980
Reagan v. Mondale 1984

• ECON 331 Intermediate Macroeconomics
• Library Instruction Session
• Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2007

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Did the incumbent president engage in a political
business cycle?

• 1972
• Nixon vs. McGovern
• 1980
• Reagan vs. Carter
• 1984
• Reagan vs. Mondale

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Data that might confirm your conclusion

• Compare statistics from the period covering
  the first term in office through one year after
  the election.
• GDP
• Inflation rates
• Real disposable income
• Unemployment rates
• Money supply
• Government transfer payments
• Tax rates
• Budget deficit

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Data Resources Historical Statistics of the
United States Earliest Times to the PresentRef.
HA202 .H57 2006 (1st flr. Reference)

• Federal Income Taxes
• Vol. 5 Governance and International Relations
• Table Ea773-826 Federal income tax rates, by
  income group average rates 1968-2000 (p. 5-116)

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Data Resources Historical Statistics of the
United States Earliest Times to the PresentRef.
HA202 .H57 2006 (1st flr. Reference)

• Budget Deficit
• Vol. 5 Governance and International Relations
• Table Ea679-682 Federal government finances
  expenditure, and debt 1940-1999 OMB

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Data Resources Budget of the United States
Governmenthttp//www.whitehouse.gov/

• Under In Focus at the left, look under Your
  Government, and click Office of Management and
  Budget.
• At the left, under Presidents Budget select FY
  2008 Budget.
• Scroll down to Historical Tables, Budget of the
  United States Government, Fiscal Year 2008.
  You might want to read the Historical Trends
  section.

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Budget of the United States Governmenthttp//www
.whitehouse.gov/

• Budget Deficit
• Section 1 Overview of Federal Government
  Finances
• Table 1.3 - Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and
  Surpluses or Deficits (-) in Current Dollars.
  Constant (FY200) U.S. , and as of GDP 1940
  2012.

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Data Resources Statistical Abstract of the
United Stateshttp//www.census.gov/compendia/stat
ab/ or 4th floor Gov Docs. 3.134 year

• Transfer Payments
• Under Summary Statistics at the right, select
  Historical Statistics.
• Government Transfer Payments to Individuals
  Summary, 1948-2001.
• Federal Government Receipts and Outlays.
  1900-2003
• (Source U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
  Regional Accounts Data, Annual State Personal
  Income)

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Statistical Abstract of the United
Stateshttp//www.census.gov/compendia/statab/
or 4th floor Gov Docs. 3.134 year

• To access previous editions
• Select Earlier Editions of the abstract from the
  menu at the top.
• Select the date range (1951-1994).
• Select the desired year.
• Click the Pages tab at the left of the PDF.
• Use the contents menu at the left to access
  various sections.

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Statistical Abstract of the United
Stateshttp//www.census.gov/compendia/statab/

• Transfer Payments
• Section 13 Social Insurance and Human Services
• Figure 13.2 Social Welfare Expenditures under
  Public Programs 1970-1982.
• No. 593 Social Welfare Expenditures under Public
  Programs 1960-1983
• No. 595 Social Welfare Expenditures under Public
  Programs as Percent of GNP and Total Government
  Outlays 1960 1982

(e.g. from 1986 Statistical Abstract)
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Statistical Abstract of the United
Stateshttp//www.census.gov/compendia/statab/

• Transfer Payments
• Section 13 Social Insurance and Human Services
• No. 596 Social Welfare Expenditures under Public
  Programs, Total and Per Capita, in Actual and
  1982 Dollars, 1960 to 1982

(e.g. from 1986 Statistical Abstract)
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Statistical Abstract of the United
Stateshttp//www.census.gov/compendia/statab/

• Transfer Payments and Income TaxesSection 15
  Income, Expenditures, and Wealth
• No. 721 Relation of GNP, National Income, and
  Personal Income 1970-1984

(e.g. from 1986 Statistical Abstract)
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Statistical Abstract of the United
Stateshttp//www.census.gov/compendia/statab/

• Transfer Payments, Income Taxes, Budget Deficit
• Section 11 Federal Government Finances and
  Employment
• Fig. 11.2 Budget Receipts and Outlays, (1986-
  p.46)
• No. 491 Federal Budget Summary 1940-1985
• No. 492 Federal Budget Receipts, Outlays, and
  Debt 1965-1985. (p. 47 of 127.)
• No. 493 Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays
  by Function 1970-1985.

(e.g. from 1986 Statistical Abstract)
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Statistical Abstract of the United
Stateshttp//www.census.gov/compendia/statab/

• Transfer Payments, Income Taxes, Budget Deficit
• Section 11 Federal Government Finances and
  Employment
• No. 517 Federal Individual Income Tax
  Effective (Average) and Marginal Tax Rates, for
  Selected Income Groups, 1954-1985

(e.g. from 1986 Statistical Abstract)
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Data ResourcesBureau of Economic Analysis
http//www.bea.gov/

• Transfer Payments
• Select All National Accounts Information.
• Under Personal Income and Outlays, select
  Interactive Tables National Income and Product
  Accounts Tables.
• Choose a table from a list of All NIPA Tables.
• Suggested tables
• 3.12. Government Social Benefits (A)

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Data ResourcesVital Statistics on the
Presidency Washington to ClintonRef. JK518.R34
1996 (1st floor Reference)

• Budget Deficit Taxes
• Fig. 7.2 Budget deficit, Eisenhower to Clinton

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You also needStudies of economic policy agenda

• Performance of the economy during the first term
• Recession? ? Cause ? Response
• What spending programs were enacted?
• Who benefited?
• Who was hurt?

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What to look for(from Tufte, Chapter 1)

• Policies that are easy to start up quickly and
  benefit a lot of voters
• Increase in Real Disposable Income
• Increase in transfer payments
• Tax cuts
• Postponements in tax increases

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What to look for(from Tufte, Chapter 1)

• Effects on the administration of short-run
  stimulation attempts
• Inflationary pressure
• Destabilization
• Disruption of government programs
• Political attacks
• Necessity of forgoing stimulation at other times

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Economic policy/agenda resourcesPrint
Reference overviews

• The Presidents A Reference History
• Ref E176.1 .P918
• The Readers Companion to the American Presidency
• Ref E176.1 .R295 2000
• The American PresidentsRef E176.1 .A6563 2000
• Check the bibliographical references!

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Economic policy/agenda resources Economic
Report of the President SUDOC PR
39.9year(varies with each administration)
http//fraser.stlouisfed.org
/publications/ERP/ (1960-1980)

• Current and foreseeable trends
• Numerical goals
• Employment
• Production
• Real income
• Federal budget outlays
• Employment objectives
• Program for carrying out objectives

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Economic Report of the President SUDOC PR
39.9year(varies with each administration)
http//fraser.stlouisfed.org
/publications/ERP/ (1960-1980)

• Many graphs, charts, and tables
• Annual Report to the Council of Economic Advisers
• Chapter 1 Progress Problems
• Chapter 2. Reducing Economics
• Chapter 3. The Economic Outlook
• Appendix A Report to the President on the
  Activities of the Council of Economic Advisers
• Appendix B Statistical Tables Relating to
  Income, Employment, and Production

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Annual Report of the Council of Economic
Advisers(part of the Economic Report of the
President)

• Performance Policy
• Inflation control
• Outlook and policy
• Effective use of resources

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Economic policy/agenda resources Public Papers
of the Presidents of the United States SUDOC
AE2.114year / http//quod.lib.umich.edu/p/ppotp
us/

• Papers and speeches issued by the Office of the
  Press Secretary
• Topical index in the back of each volume
• Using the website http//quod.lib.umich.edu/p/ppo
  tpus/
• Select Browse the papers.
• Alphabetical Index at the top of the page is by
  the presidents first names Richard, Jimmy,
  Ronald.

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Economic policy/agenda resourcesThe Cumulated
Indexes to the Public Papers of the Presidents of
the United States

• , Jimmy Carter, 1977-1981Ref. J82 .E44 1983
• , Richard M. Nixon, 1969-1974 Ref. J82 .E2 1977
• e.g. Economic stabilization program ?
• Taxation, 1971 264, 280, 287

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Economic policy/agenda resourcesPro and Con
Primary Documents

• Presidents from Reagan Through Clinton,
  1981-2001 Debating the Issues in Pro and Con
  Primary Documents Ref. E176.1 .P922 2002
• Presidents from Nixon Through Carter, 1969-1981
  Debating the Issues in Pro and Con Primary
  Documents (Obtained through E-ZBorrow. See Sue
  Nelson or the Reference Librarian on duty.)

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What do others (experts) say?
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Economic policy/agenda resources General
Collection books

• Search Snowden Librarys Online catalog and
  WorldCat for info on
• Presidential administrations
• Elections
• Economic policies

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Search strategy
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Searching the Online catalog and WorldCat
Plurals Truncation

• Suggested keywords
• Presidents last name AND
• administration OR presidency
• economic policy OR fiscal policy OR fiscal policy
• economics
• policies
• incumbent
• political business cycle OR business cycle
• election

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Searching the Online catalog and WorldCat

• Suggested subject headings
• Nixon, Richard M. (Richard Milhous), 1913-1994. 
• Carter, Jimmy, 1924-
• Reagan, Ronald.
• United States -- Politics and government --
  1977-1981.
• Presidents -- United States -- Election -- 1976  
• Business cycles -- Political aspects -- United
  States.
• United States -- Economic policy -- 1961-1971.
• United States -- Economic conditions --
  1971-1981.

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Browsing Snowden Librarys Bookshelves

• E 851 860 Nixon
• E 868 875 Carter
• E 875 879 Reagan
• HB 3711 3840 Business cycles
• HC U.S. Economic Policy
• JK 526 year Presidential elections

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EconLit
Plurals Truncation Phrases no necessary

• Ask the reference librarian to log in for you.
• Indexes Working papers (e.g. NBER)
• Studies of Particular Policy Episodes -- E650 as
  Subject phrase. AND Presidents name as Keyword.
• political business cycle AND united
  states1968-2008

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Economic policy/agenda resourcesArticles -
Subscription Databases

• Business Source Premiere
• Includes American Economic Review, Applied
  Financial Economics, Journal of Economic Issues,
  and the Journal of the History of Economic
  Thought.

Phrases Truncation
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Business Source Premiere database

• Topic an administrations economic policies
• Try a combined search of BSP with other EBSCO
  databases Academic Search Premiere and History
  Reference Center.
• Keyword search.
• Narrow results using the Narrow by Subject links
  at the left.
• Select Refine Search tab and limit to Academic
  Journals.

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Business Source Premiere database

• Topics political business cycles during the time
  of the administration
• Browse Thesaurus for business cycles.
• Add.
• Browse Thesaurus for politics.
• Click Business politics, and Add to search
  using and.
• Search
• Refine to Academic Journals and 1976-2008.

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JSTOR database
Phrases

• Topic
• an administrations economic policies
• political business cycles during the time of the
  administration
• Enter Keywords.
• Limit by
• Type Article
• Date Range
• Article Language
• Discipline(s) and/or Journal(s)
• Business
• Economics
• History
• Political Science
• Public Policy Administration

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JSTOR database (cont.)

• Look at Article Information and read Abstract.
• Click on Title to look at how many pages discuss
  this topic.
• Look at Articles that discuss this article.
• Evaluate relevance, and download if desired.

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Sage Premiere database
Two consecutive words in a box are a phrase.

• American Politics Research, The American Review
  of Public Administration, The ANNALS of the
  American Academy of Political and Social Science,
  Review of Radical Political Economics,
  Comparative Political Studies, American Politics
  Research
• Enter Keywords.
• Search.
• Evaluate relevance of articles by reading
  Abstracts.
• Open PDF and Download, if desired.
• If not available full-text, request from ILL.
• Look at Citing Articles in Google Scholar.

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National Journal Groups Policy Central

• About NJ (Quotes from their website)
• As the leading weekly on the policy-making
  process, National Journal is widely read in all
  branches of government, in businesses and in the
  policy community.
• Professionals choose National Journal for the
  beneath-the-surface coverage of the issues,
  people and organizations that shape our nation's
  policy.

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National Journal Groups Policy Central
Phrases Truncation

• Select Advanced Search at the right.
• Construct Keyword search using operators AND and
  OR.
• Pull down to Advanced (Boolean).
• Select Sort results by relevance.
• Submit search.
• Scroll down results list.
• Copy and paste the article into a Word document.

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Thank you for your attention.

• Please visit the Reference desk or contact
• Sue Nelson
• 321-4352 nelson_at_lycoming.edu

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