The AIACC Project Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change

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The AIACC ProjectAssessments of Impacts and
Adaptations to Climate Change

• Neil Leary, AIACC Science Director
• 2nd AIACC Regional Workshop
• for Asia and Pacific Islands
• Manila, 2-5 November 2004

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Background

• GEF enabling project
• climate change focal area
• Geographic scope Global
• Project period 2001-2005
• Implementing Agency UNEP
• Executing Agencies START TWAS
• Collaboration between IPCC, UNEP, START, and TWAS

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Funding

• GEF Grant 7.5 million
• Developing country
• partner co-financing 1.8 million
• USAID 300 thousand
• CIDA 100 thousand
• USEPA 50 thousand
• Rockefeller Foundation 40 thousand
• Total project cost 9.79 million

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AIACC Objectives

• Build scientific and technical capacity to
  support National Communications and developing
  country participation in intl science
• Advance scientific understanding of climate
  change impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation
  opportunities
• Link science and policy communities for
  adaptation planning

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Means for achieving objectives

• Implement regional VA assessments
• Learning-By-Doing capacity building
• Supplement by technical support, mentoring,
  training, and networking
• Engage stakeholders
• Work with National Communications
• Synthesis
• Workshops, publications, science stakeholder
  meetings

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Topics of Regional Assessments(Number of
projects addressing each topic noted in
parentheses)

• Agriculture/food security (14)
• Water resources (13)
• Land use (7)
• Rural livelihoods (5)
• Coastal zones (5)
• Biodiversity (3)
• Aquatic ecosystems, fisheries (3)
• Human health (2)
• Extreme events (2)
• Tourism (1)

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AIACC Regional Studies in Asia
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AIACC Regional Studies in Small Island States
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AIACC Accomplishments (1)

• Contributing to goals of UNFCCC
• Established strong ties to 2nd National
  Communications
• Contributed to NAPA guidelines workshops
• Adding to UNFCCC VA methods/tools database
• Participated in UNFCCC expert meetings on
  adaptation
• Contributed to UNDPs Adaptation Policy Framework

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AIACC Accomplishments (2)

• Advancing knowledge methods
• 15 papers published in peer-reviewed journals
• 7 papers published in AIACC Working Papers
• 20 more in review
• Advanced methods for
• climate scenario generation
• vulnerability indicators
• livelihood approaches
• integrated assessment modeling
• benefit/cost analysis of adaptation
• Contributing to UNFCCCs database of VA methods
  and tools

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AIACC Accomplishments (3)

• Contributing to international science
• IPCC 4th Assessment Report
• Contributed to outline plans for IPCC AR4
• 33(!) AIACC investigators chosen to be authors of
  IPCC AR4
• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
• 2 projects contributing to MEA reports
• Global Environmental Change Food Security
  (GECAFS)
• Presentations in international science meetings

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AIACC Accomplishments (4)

• Building capacity
• Capacity for scientific/technical VA assessment
• gt200 scientists and gt60 students in 46 developing
  countries have benefited from learning-by-doing
  and training activities
• Capacity to engage with stakeholders and
  formulate adaptation strategies and policies
• Have established networks that link science
  stakeholder institutions from 62 countries
• Stakeholder knowledge awareness
• Numerous local workshops with stakeholders
• South-south capacity transfers
• AIACC participants have conducted several
  successful south-south capacity transfer
  activities

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Upcoming AIACC Activities

• Completion of regional assessments by early 2005
• More peer-reviewed publications, technical
  reports
• Synthesis of AIACC regional studies in 2005 2
  books planned
• Outreach to stakeholders, national communications
• Planning for follow-on to AIACC

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AIACC Synthesis of common lessons

• Two themes selected for synthesis in 2005
• Vulnerability
• Adapatation
• Book to be written on each theme
• Case study papers from regional assessments
  synthesis paper
• Synthesis meetings to prepare the papers
• Vulnerability March2005, Bellagio, Italy
• Adaptation June 2005, Venue TBD

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Follow-up to AIACC

• Build on the accomplishments of AIACC
• Apply what we have learned to adaptation planning
  and measures
• Broaden and deepen capacity building
• Add to our scientific and technical knowledge to
  improve decision making
• Sustain enhance networks weve established

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New Projects

• Adaptation pilot projects
• Medium size regional projects
• Asia-Pacific Africa Latin America and Caribbean
• New regional assessments
• Policy-focused, participatory assessments
• Technical assistance, capacity building delivered
  by distributed networks in South

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Thank you

• www.aiaccproject.org

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Preliminary Lessons (1)

• Stakeholder participation in assessment is
  critical for generating and communicating
  knowledge that gets used
• Targeted to decision making needs
• Integrate knowledge, experiences of practitioners
• Credibility with affected groups, decision makers
• Requires set of skills most researchers dont
  have
• Relationships important
• Relationships being established between science
  and stakeholder institutions one of the more
  important legacies of AIACC project

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Preliminary lessons (2)

• Experience of coping with and managing climate
  risks is rich source of information from which to
  learn about
• System sensitivities, resilience and capacities
• Determinants of vulnerability
• Strategies to cope, adapt

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Preliminary Lessons (3)

• Important to look at multiple scales
• Sub-units within a region, community etc have
  varying degrees and types of vulnerability,
  capacities to respond
• Cross-scale interactions important
• Focusing on single scale may lead to
• misdiagnosed capacities, vulnerabilities,
  thresholds
• prescription of ineffective adaptations

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Preliminary Lessons (4)

• Important to look at multiple futures
• Socioeconomic as well as climate futures
• Socioeconomic drivers probably more important
  drivers of vulnerability than climate
• Multiple scenarios needed to investigate
  implications of different possible futures for
  vulnerability and adaptation

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Preliminary Lessons (5)

• Best method for constructing climate change
  scenarios depends on assessment objectives
• Regional climate modeling not always needed nor
  best
• Fidelity to GCM derived climate scenarios not
  critically important for investigation of
  vulnerabilities
• Guided sensitivity analyses important first step

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Preliminary Lessons (6)

• Livelihoods is useful concept for vulnerability
  assessment
• Changes in climate other stresses restrict or
  expand livelihood opportunities
• People adapt their livelihood strategies in
  response to changing opportunities
• Consequences for their well-being will depend on
  how effective these adaptations are
• Livelihoods integrate consequences of multiple
  stresses on human well-being
• Vulnerabilities vary for different livelihood
  groups