Outline

1
Outline

• A short history lesson
• Polling in Iraq
• What they really think about the current
  situation

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Basic Facts

• 26.7m population
• Occupied by Britain during WW1
• Arab 75-80, Kurdish 15-20, Turkoman, Assyrian
  or other 5
• 52.5 increase in consumer prices June 05-06.
• Economy dominated by oil bringing 95 of its
  ForEx earnings.
• GDP per capita c.1,700pa
• But what does it look like today?

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Multi National Forces remain 132,000 US
troops alone with numbers showing no signs of
deteriorating
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• Security is a daily issue
• Last month in Baghdad alone 1,600 citizens died
• Average violent citizen deaths per day
• 20 per day in 2003
• 31 per day in 2004
• 36 per day in 2005
• SOURCE www.iraqbodycount.org

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Sectarian Division Dictates Opinion.Kurds
generally happy Shiias content Sunnis unhappy
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But its not all bad.There is FREEDOM
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And Iraqis can now VOTE.And travel, read a
wider range of newspapers, listen and watch
satellite TV and radio. They can even respond to
opinion polls about their Government.
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Its a far cry from the old days
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Polling Today in Iraq Why Do It?

• A voice for the real Iraqi post-invasion
• Read a book about polling while bombs were
  dropping and carried out first ever poll amongst
  residents of Baghdad
• Who needs polling today in Iraq?
• Army
• Governments
• Those communicating with Iraqis
• Media
• NGOs e.g. election monitors, political parties
• An ever increasing range of brands mobiles,
  generators, cigarettes, FMCG etc.

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Polling Today in Iraq How Do You Do It?

• Two languages, F2F
• Five regions to consider
• Need flexible approach sampling points change,
  questions become difficult to ask
• Multi-stage random probability sampling

Weighted Kurdish Capital 5.5
North 34.2 Baghdad 23.9
Central 13.2 Mid
Shia 7.3
South 15.9
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Advantages of Polling in Iraq

• Amazing response ratesPoll Date Total
  Contacts Effective Response Response RateNov
  03 1167 1167 100June 04 1320 1083 82Nov
  04 1458 1270 83June 05 2200 1998 91Nov
  05 5000 4431 87May 06 8000 7984 91
• In the early days it was answering sensitive
  questions such as doctrine, attitude towards
  local and national institutions and leaders
• Highly educated interviewer fieldforce

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Drawbacks of Polling in Iraq

• Security to interviewers, supervisors and
  management
• Recently had three interviewers captured,
  tortured and two beheaded
• The need for interviewing permits which means
  countless backhanders
• Suspicion and rumour mill which mean people are
  becoming frightened to reveal their doctrine,
  youngsters living in their house etc.
• Very complex sampling procedure.

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What Iraqis really think about the current
situation
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Country Direction - Volatile




RIGHT DIRECTION
WRONG DIRECTION
Dont Know
March2005
July2005
September2005
November2005
November 2004
March 2006
July2005
June2004
Q . Do you feel that Iraq is generally heading in
the right direction or the wrong direction?
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Country Direction UK Comparison Flat




Q . Do you feel that teh UK is generally heading
in the right direction or the wrong direction?
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Country Direction Historical Comparison




Source - CEEB 1991- Iraq June 2004
IRAQ
Q . Do you feel that XX is generally heading in
the right direction or the wrong direction?
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Security The 1 Concern




July2005
Sept2005
November2005
March2006
June2006
Q . Do you think the security situation has
gotten better, worse or stayed the same over the
last three months?
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Security The 1 Concern




Dial 130
Only 5 in Baghdad say that their neighbourhood
security is excellent/good.
85 Northern Arabs
77 amongst Kurds
Excellent
Good
Fair
Poor
DK/NA
Q . How would you describe security conditions in
your neighbourhood today?June 06 n2,849
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Im not at all pleased with this service when out
of 15 lines, eight are down. Weve tried to
repair them, but I still dont know if they are
working
Police officers answering the phones also say
that half the calls are from people who want to
insult them.
Iraqs Interior Minister Bayan Jabr Solagh March
4th 2006
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The Death of Al-Zarqawi

• Just under one in two Iraqi adults believe
  that the death of Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi will lead
  to an improvement in the security situation.
• However, regionally there were massive
  significant differences 84 of Northern Arabs
  felt that it would make no difference while 71
  of the Shia dominated South felt that it would.
• Al-Zarqawi was not the only outside influence
  that causes chaos and concern within Iraq.
• In March 2006 IIACSS found that 51 of Iraqis
  felt that IRAN currently exercises a lot/some
  influence over Iraqi politics and government
  Only 20 felt they had no influence and this
  from a country that fought an eight years war
  during the 1980s
• Attitudes towards the role of religious leaders
  within politics are also changing more and more
  now see them as hindering an independent and
  prosperous Iraq and also think Iraq would be a
  better place if religion and politics are
  separated.

Q. Do you believe that the death of Abu Musab
Al-Zarqawi will lead to an improvement in the
security situation in Iraq? Base All (n2849)
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Approval Ratings




SOURCE
FOX/Opinion Dynamics12th 13th Sept
Approve
40
Disapprove
49
DK
10
ORB13th 15th Sept
Approve
34
Disapprove
58
DK
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ORB / IIACSS5th 12th Sept
Approve DisapproveBaghdad 19 40Kurds 24 21
Sunni (North) 10 58Central 50 13South 49 1
6
Approve
31
Disapprove
31
DK
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Q . Do you approve or disapprove of the way XX is
handling his job as Prime Minister / President?"
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Attitudes Towards Troops

• Majority want them out the infidels, the
  occupiers.
• February 2004 ABC poll found that 78 rejected
  violence against US and British forces. By
  October 2005 45 believed that attacks against
  these troops can be justified.
• Back in 2004 51 opposed their presence and
  only 15 wanted them to leave immediately. In
  2003 48 called the troops occupying forces
  this year the figure is 92.
• However, significantly more now want them to
  leave but within six months rather than
  immediately.
• Despite all the troubles more still prefer life
  now to that under Saddam Hussein.

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Thank You! Shukran!