IHDP Industrial Transformation

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IHDP Industrial Transformation opening to a
debate on Sustainable urbanization? What
Europe may learn from Asia Peter J.
Marcotullio UNU-IAS 7 March 2007
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Outline of the presentation

• A brief note on popular themes of contemporary
  Asian urban development
• Looking through a glass darklysome differences
  between what we see now and what we have
  experienced previously (theory and evidence from
  2 case studies)
• Challenges and opportunities examples of
  environmentally practices in developing countries
  of Asia to learn from and some important
  challenges for the future

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Contemporary urban development

• Jessica Marshall, 2005 Mega-city, mega mess,
  Nature 437pp. 312,
• On the streets of this city, you can pick your
  poison. Clouds of black and blue-white smoke
  billow from the exhaust pipes of buses and
  motorcycles. Thirteen rivers flow northwards to
  Jakarta Bay, each a slurry of human waste and
  garbage. Scavengers pick through the citys
  rubbish looking for recyclable plastic and
  cardboard. What they cant sell they
  burn-batteries, rubber shoes and all. Rising
  smoke from burning garbage wafts between the
  citys skyscrapers.

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Clouds of black and blue-white smoke
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billow from the exhaust pipes of buses and
motorcycles
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rivers floweach a slurry of human waste and
garbage
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Scavengers pick through the citys rubbish
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Urban change in East and Southeast Asia
Source UN (2006) World Urbanization Prospects
The 2005 Revision Population Database
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Furthermore, consumption is predicted to increase
as more people within cities engage in middle
class lifestyles

• Between now and 2030, a predicted additional 600
  million people in developing countries will
  become middle class bringing the total population
  in these regions to 1 billion
• By 2040, consumption of motor vehicles in China
  and India alone is predicted to match total
  global figures of today (800 million vehicles in
  use) (Goldman Saks, 2005, The Economist, 2006)

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Looking through a glass darkly

• Given the current conditions within the cities of
  Asia and the predicted changes to come, what
  future environmental impacts can we expect?

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Looking through a glass darkly Will developing
Asia follow developed world patterns?

• What has been the relationship between
  development (or rising income) and the
  environment for urban centers historically as
  they grew in wealth?
• Do developing economies follow the patterns of
  the developed world?

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How where environmental transitions experienced
by developed world cities?

• Environmental transition theory suggests that as
  cities increase in wealth they undergo a series
  of environmental burdens that shift in type (from
  health threatening to ecosystem threatening),
  timing of impact (from immediate to delayed) and
  geographic scale (from local to global)

Source McGranahan et al, 2001
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Examples of environmental trends with increasing
wealth
Source World Bank, 1992
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Hypothetical claims for differences between
developed and rapidly developing experiences

• Environmental burdens in developing world cities
  are occurring sooner (at lower levels of income)
  changing faster (over time) and emerging in a
  more simultaneous fashion (as sets of challenges)
  than had previously been experienced by the now
  developed world
• Environmental transitions therefore, have been
  significantly altered. Seemingly, urban managers
  in developing countries now much face more
  complex sets of environmental challenges with
  less revenue (relatively) with a shorter window
  of opportunity for their resolution

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Three curves
Developed city experience
Environmental harm
Environmental harm
GDP/capita
GDP/capita
Environmental harm
Rapidly-developing city experience
GDP/capita
Environmental harm
Environmental harm
GDP/capita
GDP/capita
Source Marcotullio and Lee, 2003
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Case study 1 evidence for sooner, faster and
more simultaneously Comparison of (liquid
fuel) transportation CO2 emissions for several
different groups of developing economies and the
USA and Japan
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Sooner
Source Marcotullio, Williams and Marshall, 2005
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Comparison of increases in road and air CO2
emissions for most the rapid developers
Source Marcotullio, Williams and Marshall, 2005
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More Simultaneously

• Comparison of the mix of air and road
  technologies contributing CO2 emissions using an
  index for diversity of fuel consumption
  (gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel)
• Closer to 0 the more dominant a single
  technology. The closer to 1 the more evenly
  distributed the technologies

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Source Marcotullio, Williams and Marshall, 2005
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But despite the environmental chaos of
contemporary development

• Environmental impact (at least in this case) was
  lower in developing economies than the USA at any
  comparable level of economic income!

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Comparison of road-CO2 emission changes with
increasing income, USA and selected Asian
economies
Source Marcotullio and Williams, 2007
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Case study 2 Does the paradox apply when Asian
developing country emissions are compared with
other developed economies? Evidence using
road-CO2 emissions
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Faster comparison of increases over time in
road-CO2 emissions for selected developed and
Asian economies
Source Marcotullio 2006
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Comparative change in road CO2 emissions, USA
and selected developed economies
Source Marcotullio 2006
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Simplified chart of comparative developed economy
trends with shaded area between the lowest
(Netherlands) and second highest (Australia)
curves
Source Marcotullio and Marshall, forthcoming
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Group A low emitters
Source Marcotullio and Marshall, forthcoming
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Group B medium emitters
Source Marcotullio and Marshall, forthcoming
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Group C high emitters
Source Marcotullio and Marshall, forthcoming
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Differences between trends are related to a
number of factors, no doubt technology is
influential but,Institutions and policies
have also played a key role in creating the
efficient cities of Tokyo, Osaka, Hong Kong,
Singapore and Seoul, among others
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Transit cities Tokyo, Osaka and Singapore
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Examples of interesting environmental policies

• Bus Rapid Transit
• Seouls Bus Reform System (July 2004)
• Trans-Jakarta Bus way (January 2004)
• China Beijing (December 2004), Hangzhou (April
  2006), Kunming (1999) (Under construction or
  planning in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Shenyang,
  Chongqing, Xian, Jinan)

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BRT in Beijing
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Examples of interesting environmental policies

• Clean Air Initiative
• China has initiated an ambitious set of fuel
  economy standards intended to bring about changes
  in the vehicle fleet including the introduction
  of more advanced vehicle technologies, a bias
  against heavier vehicles and an overall more
  efficient fleet

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Comparison of fuel economy and GHG emission
standards
Dotted lines are proposed standards
Source Merril Lynch 2005
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Examples of interesting environmental policies

• Alternative fuels
• Bio-diesel fuels in Malaysia, Indonesia and the
  Philippines
• LPG and Natural gas is widely used in Japan
  (particularly taxis) and increasingly in
  Thailand, China and Malaysia. Many diesel
  fuelled taxis in Hong Kong have shifted to LPG

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Malaysian oil palm plantations may be sources of
biodiesel
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Examples of interesting environmental policies

• Vehicle quota system and congestion charging
  (ERP)
• Singapore (transferred to London recently)
• Vehicle and fuel taxes
• Singapore, China, Vietnam, Japan, S. Korea,

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Electronic road pricing in Singapore
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Additional cost of a typical car in Singapore

• The Open Market Value of a 1.6 litre Toyota
  Corolla in 2004 was approximately Sing20,000
  (US12,000)
• The buyer typically pays taxes in the form of an
  Certificate of Entitlement, an Additional
  Registration Fee, an Excise Duty, the
  Registration Fee and ownership and annual road
  taxes
• With these additional costs the price of the car
  increases to Sing80,000 (US47,000)

Source Barter, 2005
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Examples of other interesting environmental
policies

• River restoration in Seoul
• Cheonggye river
• before restoration

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Examples of other interesting environmental
policies

• Cheonggye river after restoration

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Examples of other environmental policies to learn
from
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Future significant challenges
Source Wards (various years)
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The way the differences influences play out will
determine the future pathway for the lower but
very large economies in the region
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Conclusion

• Urbanization in rapidly developing Asian
  economies is commonly associated with
  environmental health issues and potentially with
  consumption and resource depletion concerns in
  the future
• These simultaneous concerns are partial evidence
  that cities within the Asia Pacific region are
  undergoing significantly different environmental
  transitions when compared to the developed world

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Conclusion

• Despite experiencing sooner occurrence,
  faster changes and more simultaneous
  emergence of environmental burdens than those of
  the developed world, however, many of these
  developing economies also demonstrate lower total
  environmental impact
• Among the important factors in explaining this
  paradox are, inter alia, technologies and
  policy initiatives (institutions and various
  transport demand management)

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Conclusion

• Yet not all rapidly developing economies are
  following these patterns and there remains
  uncertainty as to how the currently lower income
  large economies will develop
• By sheer size alone, the center of gravity for
  concerns over the sustainability of the planet
  will increasingly be pulled toward Asia
• While tremendous challenges remain, there is also
  glimmers of good news. Many cities in the region
  remain flexible and have been experimenting with
  new and exciting policy initiatives providing
  both specific and generic examples to learn from

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Thank you