Title: China and Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities
1China and Climate Change Challenges and
Opportunities
Trish McCubbinAssociate ProfessorSouthern
Illinois University School of Law
2 Research Institute for Environmental Law Wuhan
University School of Law Wuhan, Hubei Province
3Concerns About Unilateral Action by the U.S.
- ? China is now the 1 emitter of greenhouse
gases (GHGs) by annual volume. - ? Some assume China is doing nothing to reign in
its GHGs, just like 10 years ago during the Kyoto
negotiations.
4Roadmap for Future Negotiations with China
- ? Chinas New Political Will to Address GHGs
- Common but
- Differentiated
- Commitments from Developed and
Developing Nations - ? Need for Improvements in the Rule of Law in
China
5The New Chinese Political Will to Address GHGs
International Pressures
- Fourth Assessment Report of
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(2007)
2008 Olympics in Beijing
6The New Chinese Political Will to Address GHGs
(Continued)
Domestic Pressures
- New study by Chinese government of domestic
climate change impacts (June 2007) -
Loss of agricultural production - - Melting of Tibetan plateau
- - Destruction of habitat for giant panda
- - Flooding of coastal areas from sea
level rise
7The New Chinese Political Will to Address GHGs
(Continued)
Chinas Severe Domestic Environmental Degradation
- 16 out of 20 of the worlds most
polluted cities are in China. - Only 1 of cities meets modern
air quality standards. - World Bank estimate 750,000
- premature deaths each year
- from air pollution
Living in Chinas most polluted cities is a
pulmonary disaster equivalent to smoking two
packs of cigarettes a day. State
Environmental Protection Administration Official
8Governments Strong Desire to Address Domestic
Environmental Conditions
- Growing citizen protests
- - est. 50,000 annually
- Government concern
- about social instability
9Governments Strong Desire to Address Domestic
Environmental Conditions
- Governments own Green GDP
calculation in 2006 - 3 annual loss
- World Banks estimate
- 8 annual loss
October 7, 2009
Prof. Trish McCubbin
9
10Chinas Domestic Commitments on GHGs So Far
- 11th Five-Year Plan (2006)
- ? National Climate Change Programme (June
2007) - ? National Energy Plan (December 2007)
11Chinas Domestic Commitments on GHGs So Far
(Continued)
- Commitments
- - Improved energy efficiency (target 4
reduction each year) - - Greater fuel efficiency
standards for vehicles - - More reliance on non-carbon
fuels - - Use of carbon capture and
sequestration at coal-fired power plants
12Merely Paper Commitments?
- 2006 goal of reducing energy usage not met only
reduced by 1.23, not 4 - Similar goal for 2007 also missed reduced only
by 3.27 - 2008 4 goal supposedly met
October 7, 2009
Prof. Trish McCubbin
12
13Important Signals of Cooperation from Chinese
Central Government
- President Hu Jintao
- China can no longer afford the excessively
high price to the environment caused by the
nations rapid economic growth. (Oct. 2007) - Chinese Diplomat at Bali negotiations
- China will follow if the European Union and the
United States lead in international efforts to
address GHGs. (Dec. 2007)
14Key Differences BetweenChina and U.S.
- Population
- China1.3 Billion
- America0.3 Billion
- U.S. per capita GHG emissions are
4 to 5 times Chinas. - Pollution by Proxy
- Carnegie and
- Tyndall Studies
-
15Poverty and Chinas Status as a Truly Developing
Country
- World Bank estimates 300 million Chinese
live below poverty level. - 100s of millions live above the poverty line
but are still unable to afford basics like
education or healthcare.
16U.S. and International Recognition of Common but
Differentiated Responsibilities of All Nations
- Agreements
- ? U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change
(1992) - ? APEC Summit Statement (September
2007) - ? Bali Action Plan (December 2007)
17Common But Differentiated Responsibilities in
Practice
- For U.S. and other developed nations
- Annual cap on GHG emissions set
substantially below current levels - For China and other developing nations
- Growth of GHGs, but with measures to slow
the growth - and (ideally) peak in 2020 or 2025
- Bali Plan Measurable, verifiable and
reportable
18The Need for Improvements in the Rule of Law
Structural Problems with Environmental Legal
Regime
? Low penalties ? Enforcement by provincial
officials with conflicts of interest ?
Limited role for citizens
19The Need for Improvements in the Rule of Law
(Continued)
Broader Challenges to the Rule of Law Generally
- Judiciary subject to
- political pressure
- Corruption found within
- judiciary
- Challenge of modernizing
- judicial system