Urban Africa Risk Research Network

1
Urban Africa Risk Research Network

• Assessing urban risk in the context of Cape Town
  informal settlements

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Objectives

• Describe the Cape Town urban context and the
  challenges in reducing disaster risk
• Present DiMPs strategies for assessing urban
  risk in the context of the Cape Town metropole
• Identify the outcomes and achievements of the
  MANDISA database, and the current constraints
• Present DiMPs current focus in terms of updating
  the database, enhancing the disaster risk
  analytic capability and the opportunities for
  networking and capacity building
• Conclude with the proposed budget

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The growth of CCT informal settlements

• Risk accumulation is greatest in rapidly emerging
  cities
• In Cape Town some settlements increased in
  density by a staggering 100 between 1998 and
  2000
• Limited delivery of low income housing and
  services.rise of informal and unplanned
  settlements
• National focus on delivery with consequences for
  quality of housing and services
• Cape Town has a 240 000 housing backlogmade
  worse by the increasing densification of urban
  areas

4
The challenges in reducing risk

• Fires account for 97 of disaster related
  eventsmajority in informal settlements
• Risk reduction in informal settlements
  characterized by awareness and education
  programmes, infrastructural initiatives only
  symptomatically address fire risk.
• Programmes are undermined by a limited risk
  assessment procedure in part due to inadequate
  or unstreamlined data sources
• In response to this challenge DIMP developed
  MANDISA in 1999

5
MANDISA strategic risk assessment, monitoring
and planning

• In 1999 DiMP in collaboration with local partners
  designed MANDISA Monitoring and Mapping of
  Disaster Incidents in South Africa
• Inspired by the Latin American database
  DesInventar
• Initiated as a pilot study in the Cape Town
  Metropole
• Database currently has approximately 12 500
  disaster records from 1990-1999
• Monitor not only declared disasters but small and
  medium scale events

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MANDISA Fire-Related Findings in the Cape Town
Metro
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Outcomes, achievements and analytic capabilities

• Consolidates 12 500 disaster records from over 12
  different data sources and which are spatially
  mapped
• Strategic analytical outputs via intranet site or
  quarterly updates
• Incident profiles location, type of housing,
  severity, triggers and impact costs
• Spatial analysis an incidence rate/1000
  dwellings high and low risk areas
• Temporal analysis (annually/seasonally) graphic
  representation of frequency/severity over time.

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Spatial analysis 1995 1999Browns Farm
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Temporal analysis 1995- 1999Browns Farm
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Identified constraints

• Constraints were identified in a consultative
  workshop with CoCT, local NGOs, CBOs and
  private sector (April 2004)
• Linking urban growth patterns with increasing
  fire risk, I.e density and fire severity
• Mapping the location and extent of an incident
• Mapping the accurate triggers of informal
  settlement fires

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Current focus

• 1) Updating MANDISA to 2004
• The City of Cape Towns Mayor is funding MANDISA
  to be updated to 2004
• 2) Enhancing the disaster risk analytical
  capability to focus on explanatory factors
• A number of additional datasets need to be
  imported into MANDISA such as dwelling counts,
  densities and geographically positioned data on
  the location and extent of the incident
• 3) Networking and capacity building
• Urban Risk Research Working Group, Cape Town
• Testing MANDISA

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Updating MANDISA to 2004

• Current disaster records are from 1990-1999
• The City of Cape Town has agreed to finance the
  updating of the disaster records from 2000 2004
• Agreement signed April 2004
• Estimated completion March 2005
• Specifically involve data collection, capturing
  and interpretation training workshop,
  stakeholder consultation and basic data analysis

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Enhancing the disaster risk analytic capability

• Linking urban growth with changing risk patterns
• Calculate a fire rate/1000 dwellings from aerial
  photographs for 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002
• Streamlined with the MANDISA internet reporting
  module
• Mapping the location and extent of an incident
• Disaster Management GPS data imported into
  MANDISA and correlated with other existing
  information
• City of Cape Town catchment maps

14
Networking and capacity building

• Local networking
• - Urban Risk Research Working Group, Cape Town
• Established in April 2004
• Local government departments, emergency services,
  NGOs, relief agencies and the private sector
• Local Disaster Management Advisory Forum
• Quarterly meetings

15
Testing MANDISA as a strategic risk assessment,
monitoring and evaluationtool

• City of Cape Town Informal Settlement Servicing
  of 40 settlements
• Fire and Flood Awareness and Preparedness
  Programme (Disaster Management and Emergency
  Services) pilot in two selected informal
  settlements
• DiMP will provide the following
• Historical data analysis
• Monthly reports (6 months)
• Test MANDISA application as assessment,
  monitoring and evaluation tool presented as a
  case study

16
Budget

• Amount sought from URRN
• Budget Category Amount US
• Personnel (1 person x 50 12 months) 10 460
• Technical upgrade of MANDISA application
• Specialist development 2 017
• database functionality 2 929
• capturing application 281
• internet site 8 313
• Total technical upgrade 13 540
• Meetings and consultations 2 500
• Administrative costs 1 325
• UCT overhead 2 782
• Total 30 607
• BUT Grand Total 78 607
• City of Cape Town has committed
  US48 000 (61)
• Total investment by DiMP to date US 153 846.
  Other than start-up grant of
• US 100 000, this initiative has been funded
  entirely with local resources