Committee to Assess Progress Toward Achieving the Decadal Vision in Astronomy

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Committee to Assess Progress Toward Achieving the
Decadal Vision in Astronomy Astrophysics
(a.k.a. Mid-Course Review)

• Meg Urry
• Yale University
• Co-chair, NRC Committee on Astronomy
  Astrophysics
• AAAC February 12,2005

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Origin

• CAA (Committee on Astronomy and Astrophysics)
  and parent Boards (BPABoard on Physics and
  Astronomy and SSBSpace Studies Board) asked
  whether science strategy of decadal survey
  (AANMAstronomy and Astrophysics in the New
  Millennium) supplemented by Q2C report
  (Connecting Quarks with the Cosmos Eleven
  Science Questions for the New Century) is on
  course or should be reexamined.
• Discussion prompted by changes in substance
  (scientific and technical advances) and context
  (Q2C, NASA, NSF, DOE).
• NRC initiated the study.

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Charge to the Committee

• An NRC committee will prepare a short report
  reviewing the scientific discoveries and
  technical advances in astronomy and astrophysics
  over the 5 years since the publication of the
  decadal survey, Astronomy and Astrophysics in the
  New Millennium (AANM). It will address the
  implications of scientific and technical
  developments as well as changes in the federal
  program. It will assess progress toward realizing
  the vision for the field articulated in AANM and
  supplemented by Connecting Quarks with the
  Cosmos.

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Committee Membership

• Meg Urry, Yale University, Chair (CAA, BPA)
• Lars Bildsten, University of California, Santa
  Barbara (CAA)
• Roger Blandford, Stanford University (CAA, SSB,
  Q2C)
• John Carlstrom, University of Chicago (CAA)
• Neal Evans, II, University of Texas
• Jacqueline Hewitt, Massachusetts Institute of
  Technology (SSB)

• Craig Hogan, University of Washington
• John Huchra, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for
  Astrophysics (Q2C)
• Christopher McKee, University of California,
  Berkeley (AASC, BPA)
• Anneila Sargent, California Institute of
  Technology (AASC, BPA)
• Sara Seager, Carnegie Institution of Washington
• Charles Woodward, University of Minnesota (CAA)

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Structure of Letter Report

• Summary of changes (substance/context)
• Overview of science advances
• Overview of tech developments
• Assessment of progress toward Vision
• Opportunities
• Obstacles

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Science

• Do new discoveries (e.g., dark energy) require
  new survey to exploit?
• Dramatic advances since 2000
• Dark energy, structure of the Universe
• Planets/disks around other stars
• Formation and evolution of black holes

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I. The Age of the Universe, the History of Its
Expansion, and the Nature of Matter and Energy

• Dark Energy and Fundamental Physics
• Dark Matter and the Density of the Universe
• The Dawn of the Modern Universe The First Stars
• The First Galaxies and Early Star Formation

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HST
CXO
WMAP
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II. Our Place in the Cosmos the Formation of
Stars and Planetary Systems, and the Suns Effect
on Earth

• Planets Around Other Stars
• Planetary Formation
• Solar System Formation
• The Physics of the Sun and Its Effect on Our
  World
• Our Galaxys Supermassive Black Hole and Star
  Formation

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III. The Formation and Evolution of Black Holes
and Probing Strong Gravity and High Densities

• Solving the Mystery of the X-ray Background
• Supermassive Black Holes in Galaxy Nuclei
• Exploring Curved Space-Time Around Spinning Black
  Holes
• Neutron Star Laboratories for Precision Tests of
  General Relativity and Physics at High Densities

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Technology

• Successful implementation of AANM requires timely
  and sustained commitment to technology
  development.
• Committee sees no technological breakthroughs or
  challenges that require further assessment or
  imperil AANM vision.
• TPF-C handled in recent NRC TPF letter report.
• New technologies may arise in new Exploration
  Vision if so, optimal for input to next decadal
  survey.

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Human Capital

• Significant and pressing concern effect of
  ongoing programmatic changes on young
  investigators.
• Talented students are strongly attracted to
  astronomy and astrophysics but are hesitant in
  the current uncertain climate to commit their
  future careers to the field.

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Assessment

• The remarkable advances in understanding in
  astronomy and astrophysics achieved over the past
  5 years do not require that the NRC reexamine the
  AANM report or undertake an in-depth mid-course
  review of the scientific goals or recommended
  priorities. On the contrary, progress in the
  field validates the broad scientific program
  envisioned by the survey and implemented thus far
  by the agencies.

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Balance and Flexibility

• Balance across subdisciplines critical in
  astronomy and astrophysics.
• Most exciting scientific discoveries from new
  instruments often not anticipated. (Programs must
  be flexible enough to explore unforeseen
  phenomena.)
• Success of AA decadal survey programs over past
  50 years attests to wisdom of balanced approach.

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Interagency Coordination

• Formation of AAAC and interagency teams (viz.
  OSTPs The Physics of the Universe) are
  significant and important for achieving decadal
  vision.
• Coordination works because of strong planning
  process in this field - the astronomy and
  astrophysics surveys provide the strategic
  underpinnings for a cohesive interagency effort.

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Strategic Planning (NSF DOE)

• Strategic planning underway at NSF Astronomy
  Division is essential step toward transformation
  necessary for managing large AANM projects.
• Senior reviews valuable for periodic assessment
  of allocation of resources across disciplines.
• Future planning for astronomy and astrophysics
  should take into account the increasing
  involvement of the DOEs Office of Science and
  the scientists that it supports.
• DOE should continue to coordinate its program
  with NASA and the NSF its participation in the
  AAAC is an important step.

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Strategic Planning (NASA)

• NASA has an important tradition of roadmapping
  and strategic planning, carried out with help
  from the agencys FACA advisory committees.
• Beyond Einstein roadmap is excellent synthesis
  and implementation of AANM and Q2C reports.
• Demonstrates how agency processes can integrate
  new discoveries into the broad framework laid out
  by the decadal survey.

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Explorers and Probes

• Implementation of Einstein probes to be carried
  out in competitive environment designed to yield
  best science.
• Concept of Einstein Probes builds on legacy of
  successful, cost-effective Explorer line of
  missions.
• Explorers (Probes) allow NASA to respond to new
  scientific discoveries without waiting for the
  next decadal survey.
• Open, competitive nature of Explorers/Probes
  ensures best science is done and adds to vitality
  of field.

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Beyond Einstein

• Beyond Einstein includes AANM high-priority
  missions Con-X and LISA as facility-class
  missions called Einstein Great Observatories.
• Einstein Great Observatories will provide broad
  and flexible science return across all of
  astrophysics, like HST, CGRO, Chandra, and
  Spitzer.
• Support for Beyond Einstein projects needs to be
  sustained. Especially important for projects now
  underway, in order to maintain continuity in
  expertise.
• Aldridge commissions notional science agenda for
  implementing the new Exploration Vision includes
  the scientific goals articulated in Beyond
  Einstein roadmap.

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Theory

• NSF postdoctoral fellowships open to theorists
  and real growth in individual grants program have
  been positive responses to AANM recommendations
  on theory.
• No theory challenges have been explicitly
  implemented in any AANM-recommended initiatives
  now underway, potentially inhibiting the synergy
  envisioned by the AANM survey committee, which
  advocated the kind of broad, visionary theory
  program that enhances the discovery potential of
  future missions.

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Hubble (in time of rapid change!)

• Committee agrees with conclusions of Lanzerotti
  report (Committee on the Assessment of Options
  for Extending the Life of the Hubble Space
  Telescope)
• Future promise of extended HST mission is
  unquestionably exciting and of immense value.
• Only effective means of servicing HST is shuttle
  servicing mission.

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Future re Hubble

• AANM priorities should form basis of nations
  program in astronomy and astrophysics even if HST
  ceases operation before 2010.
• If cost of repairing HST or developing a
  fast-track HST replacement is large enough to
  threaten the timely completion of a substantial
  fraction of the projects recommended in the AANM
  report and Q2C, then scientific community should
  be involved in assessing the relative value of
  HST or its replacement vis-à-vis the affected
  program.

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Exploration Initiative

• NASAs new Exploration Initiative has brought a
  welcome new purpose to human spaceflight side of
  agency and has provided some new opportunities
  for selected areas of the science program.
• Long-term impact on astronomy and astrophysics
  not entirely clear but short-term changes are
  already having an effect, and there are community
  concerns that serious problems may lie ahead.
• Committee very concerned that selective impacts
  will adversely affect NASAs ability to generate
  the kind of transformational science that is
  hallmark of past decades.
• Committee believes that maintaining the breadth
  of the astronomy and astrophysics enterprise at
  NASA is consistent with new Exploration Vision.

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Conclusion

• The committee and the community it represents
  value immensely the ongoing dialog between the
  astronomy and astrophysics community and the
  agencies.
• As long as the necessary breadth and balance are
  maintained in the current scientific program for
  astronomy and astrophysics, prospects for an
  unprecedented decade of discovery are indeed
  bright.

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Backup Slides
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AANM Key Science Questions

• How did universe begin, how did it evolve from
  primordial soup of elementary particles into
  complex structures seen today, and what is its
  destiny?
• How do galaxies first arise and mature?
• How are stars born and how do they live and die?
• How do planets form and change as they age?
• Does life exist elsewhere in the universe?

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Q2C Key Science Questions

• Are protons unstable?
• What are the new states of matter?
• Are there more space-time dimensions?
• How were elements from Fe to Uranium made?
• Is new theory of light and matter needed?

• What is dark matter?
• What is dark energy?
• How did the universe begin?
• Was Einstein right about gravity?
• How have neutrinos shaped the universe?
• What are natures most energetic particles?

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Reviewers

• Donald C. Backer, University of California,
  Berkeley,
• Andrea M. Ghez, University of California, Los
  Angeles,
• Jonathan E. Grindlay, Harvard University,
• Natalie A. Roe, Lawrence Berkeley National
  Laboratory,
• Joseph H. Taylor, Jr., Princeton University,
• Alan M. Title, Lockheed Martin,
• J. Craig Wheeler, University of Texas, and
• Edward L. Wright, University of California, Los
  Angeles.