Introduction to fisheries ecosystem modeling requirements

1
Introduction to fisheries ecosystem modeling
requirements

• Howard Townsend, Ph.D.
• NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office (NMFS)
• Cooperative Oxford Lab (NOS/NCCOS)
• Jonathan Phinney, Ph.D.
• Southwest Fisheries Science Center (NMFS))
• December 9, 2008

2
Presentation Outline

• Introduction
• NMFS View of Modeling
• Models for Current Single Sector/Species Approach
  Fisheries Management
• Evolution of Models for Multi-Species/Multi-Sector
  /Ecosystem-based Approach to Fisheries Management
• Integrated Ecosystem Assessments
• UNDERLYING THEME NEED MODELS THAT ARE USEFUL FOR
  FISHERIES MANAGERS
• Current and Potential uses of Environmental/Oceano
  graphic models for Single Sector/Species
  Approach Fisheries Management
• Environmental Parameters in Stock Assessment
  models
• Forecasting/projection models for fish movements
  (migration, spawning, larval transport)
• Current and Potential uses of Environmental/Oceano
  graphic models for Multi-Species/Multi-Sector/Ec
  osystem-based Fisheries Management
• Ecopath with Ecosim Ecospace
• Atlantis models
• Other Modeling Efforts
• Other Ideas/suggestions
• Potential demonstration projects between NMFS and
  NWS NCEP
• Workshop with NMFS Ecosystem Modelers

3
NOAA Ecosystem Drivers

• NOAA Strategic Plan (2002)
• Improve resource management by advancing our
  understanding of ecosystems through better
  simulation and predictive models.
• NOAA Five-year Research Plan (2007)
• NOAA forecasts will provide the needed
  decision-support tools for adaptive,
  ecosystem-based management of fisheries and
  marine resources, to predict human impacts on
  ecosystems, and to protect human health.
• Create biophysical coupled models of water
  mass movements and their effects on biological
  productivity including fisheries recruitment and
  population distribution.

4
Ecosystem Drivers (continued)

• Magnuson Stevens Fishery Conservation and
  Management Reauthorization Act (2006)
• The Secretary shall undertake and complete a
  study on the state of the science for advancing
  the concepts and integration of ecosystem
  considerations in regional fishery management.
• JSOST Ocean Research Priorities Plan (2007)
• New modeling and analysis procedures will be
  developed to provide the foundation for
  comparative analyses and evaluation of ecosystems
• NMFS is moving towards ecosystem-based management
  building the road as we go

5
Brief Primer on NMFS Modeling
6
NOAA Regional Ecosystems in the US EEZ
Regional Ecosystem inland boundaries include
the coastal watershed and the inland extent of
the diadromous fish habitat see details at
http//ecosystems.noaa.gov/workshops__meetings.ht
m
7
Example of NMFS Data for Transboundary fisheries
in Atlantic and Pacific Ocean- Example Highly
Migratory Species sharks, tuna (albacore and big
eye), billfish tagging and landings data
Albacore
Credit Koehn SWFSC
8
Example of Predictive Model for Salmon Pre-spawn
Mortality in WA
9
National Ecosystem Modeling Workshop (NEMoW)

• A national workshop to standardize/unify
  methodologies and approaches when using
  ecosystem, bio-physical and multispecies models
• Responsive to a wide range of calls for
  EAM/EAF/IEA/etc.
• Analogous to NSAW and Natl Economists Meetings
• Report Published in February 2008
  spo.nwr.noaa.gov/tm/tm87.pdf
• NEMOW II planned for late FY09

10
Changing View of Fisheries Single Sector
Management
11
Changing View of Fisheries Ecosystem-based
Management
12
Simple Processes for Fish Management
13
"Simple" Fisheries Indicators
Credit Bonzek, VIMS
14
Gradient of Possibilities
Stock/Single Species
Ecosystem
Multi-species
Aggregate Biomass
Messy Picture Here
Gadids
Pelagics
Flatfish
SS models, forget ecosystem issues
Whole System Models, forget population dynamics
Multi-species assessments
Aggregate Biomass Models
SS assessments with explicit M2 or habitat or
climate considerations
Multiple SS assessments in harmony
Credit Link, NEFSC
15
Infrastructure necessary for Integrated Ecosystem
Assessments
16
Current and Potential uses of Environmental/Oceano
graphic models for Single Sector/Species Approach
Fisheries Management
17
Environmental Parameters in Stock Assessment
models

• Integrating environmental time series into stock
  assessment models and to test the significance of
  correlations between population processes and the
  environmental time series
• Low-hanging fruit and is being done with products
  currently available
• STATUS Simple correlations are being used, and
  has promise

18
Marine Mammal Density Field Forecasts
Marine Mammal Survey Data
Habitat Data
Mathematical Models of Marine Mammal Density

• Marine Mammal Data 1986-2002
• Ship and aerial surveys
• Southwest Fisheries
• Science Center

• Habitat Data 1986-2002
• In situ oceanographic
• and prey data
• Southwest Fisheries
• Science Center
• Remotely Sensed data

19
Forecast Coho salmon returns in the Columbia River

• Biological transition v. coho

• Hydrographic spring transition
• (upwelling event Pacific NW)

4. Northern Copepods v Chinook
3. Northern Copepods v coho

• (NWFSC- Bill Peterson -bill.peterson_at_noaa.gov )

20
Other Pilots

• Madden Julian Oscillation wind fields and timing
  and duration of upwelling in Pacific NW for
  salmon (NCEP and NMFS NW/SWFSC)
• SST and Sardine Habitat and Productivity (SIO
  and NMFS SWFSC)
• SST and Loggerhead Turtle distribution for HI
  Longline fishery.
• GFDL MOM downscaling for CA Current salmon
  fishery. (OAR-NMFS Joint Post-doc)

21
Forecast Marine Mammal Distribution in Southeast
Atlantic

• Run existing HYCOM variables (120 d, surface
  currents, T0, Salinity, thermocline depth and
  intensity, fronts)
• Right whale calving on Southeast Atlantic Shelf
  (Cape Hatteras to FL Bay)
• (NCEP Hendrik Tolman, Carlos Lorzano and SEFSC
  Lance Garrison -Lance.Garrison_at_noaa.gov)

22
Ongoing Nowcasting Sea nettles in the Chesapeake
Bay
Credit Brown, NESDIS
23
Environmental/Oceanographic models for
Multi-Species/Multi-Sector/Ecosystem-based
Fisheries Management

• STATUS Maturing with environmental parameters
  included in the ecosystem models

24
Ecopath with EcosimBiomass dynamics equations

• For Biomass of group i,
• dBi /dt GEi ?prey Q(BiBprey) consumption gain
• - FiBi fishing loss
• - M0iBi other mortality loss
• - ?pred Q(BpredBi) predation loss
• I immigration rate

25
Ecopath with Ecosim - Ecospace
26
Ecospace Applications linkages and coupling to
hydro/ocean models

• ROMS, hydrodynamic, and climate models
• NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab/Princeton
• Florida Bay Ecosystem Model (FLEM)
• /Chesapeake Bay Regional Estuarine Ecology Model
  (CBREEM)
• European Regional Seas Ecosystem Modeling (ERSEM)
• EwE-Marine Protected Area optimization MARXAN
  bridge
• Potential to add HYCOM connection
• Villy Christensen, University of British Columbia
  Fisheries Centre (v.christensen_at_fisheries.ubc.ca)

27
Atlantis Management Strategy Evaluation
Simulate management cycle to explore policy
effectiveness and impacts - to explore multiple
policy alternatives
Credit B. Fulton, CSIRO
28
Cal. Current
Chesapeake Bay
N.E. U.S.
Santa Cruz
Long Island
Atlantis being used by NMFS in these areas
29
More Information on Modeling EffortsChesapeake
Bay coupled Water Quality Model and Fisheries
Ecosystem Model

• Hongguang Ma, NCBO
• http//www.chesapeakebay.net/pubs/subcommittee/mds
  c/doc-2002_Eutrophication_Model.pdf
• http//noaa.chesapeakebay.net/EcosystemModel.aspx

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The way forward linking NCEP and NMFS efforts

• Workshop with NMFS Ecosystem Modelers from
  regional science centers and NCEP
• Continued development of pilot projects around
  the country
• Use NCEP operational approach as a framework for
  developing NMFS Ecosystem Models and Modeling
  Approaches

31
Additional Pilot Demonstration Larval fish and
shrimp connectivity in the Gulf of Mexico

• Develop Ekman Transport index to test whether
  larvae are transported into coastal estuaries.
• Intelligent particle tracking model.
• Existing work at the Stennis Space Center uses
  NRL NGOMNFS.
• (SEFSC- Woody Nero Woody.Nero_at_noaa.gov)

32
Additional Demonstration Project Forecasting
coastal and ocean salinity in the Chesapeake

• Many Bay species (e.g., blue crab, striped, bass,
  menhaden) are dependent on ocean currents and bay
  SST and salinity for successful migration and
  recruitment
• Create forecast system based on ocean currents
  and bay environmental forecast to predict
  recruitment success

33
For more info and discussion about NMFS
environmental and ecosystem modeling

• Contact
• Howard Townsend (Howard.Townsend_at_noaa.gov)
• Jonathan Phinney (Jonathan.Phinney_at_noaa.gov)

34
Extra slides

• Run through if time available

35
Potential Demonstration project 1 Run existing
HYCOM variables (120 d, surface T0, salinity,
thermocline depth and intensity, fronts) for
Larval fish connectivity in Western Pacific

• 1000E 800W longitude 300S 600N Latitude
• 1650W 1500W long. 150N 250N lat.
• 1600E 1400W long. 00 450N lat. (HI)
• HMS, Turtles, sea birds distribution in North
  Pacific (PISFC)
• 1000E 800W longitude 00 600N
• (PIFSC-Donald Kobayashi -Donald.Kobayashi_at_noaa.gov
  )

36
Potential Demonstration Project 3 Marine Mammal
Distribution in Eastern Tropical Pacific

• Run existing HYCOM variables (120 d, surface T0,
  Salinity, thermocline depth and intensity,
  fronts)
• Existing cetacean-habitat model
  predictions(colored dots) of offshore spotted
  dolphin population density compared to sighting
  locations (black triangles).
• SWFSC- Megan Ferguson (Megan.Ferguson_at_noaa.gov)

37
Potential Demonstration Project 4 Sea Ice
distribution and fishing pressure in Antarctica

• 120 d, surface currents, T0, Salinity,
  thermocline depth and intensity, fronts)
• Determine overwintering of distribution of seals
  and penguins and fishing patterns with sea ice.
• SWFSC- Christian Reiss christian.reiss_at_noaa.gov

38
More Information on Modeling EffortsNPZ-Cal
Observations or GCM model
Temperature
Prey Field

• Andrew Leising, SWFSC-ERD

39
More Information on Modeling Efforts DisMELS

• Buck Stockhausen, AFSC
• http//www.afsc.noaa.gov/quarterly/jas2006/divrpts
  REFM6.htm

40
PICES NEMURO Model Suite

• NEMURO
• 11-box plankton model, tracking N and Si
• Variants e-NEMURO, fe-NEMURO, ROMS-NEMURO,
  NEMURO-ESMF
• NEMURO.FISH
• Saury/herring bioenergetics model linked to
  NEMURO
• NEMURO.SAN (under development)
• 3-species (sardine anchovy predator) 2-D IBM
  linked to NEMURO
• Ecological Modelling special issue, v. 202 1-2

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NEMURO.FISH
Megrey et al. 2006 Ecol. Model.
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Tuna Forage 1
SEAPODYM
APECOSM
3 groups in multiple layers
6 groups in 3 layers
horizontal movement via advection (currents) and
diffusion (randomness)
44
Tuna Forage 2
SEAPODYM
APECOSM
size-spectrum dynamics with a bioenergetics basis
delay-differential dynamics with a
phenomenological basis
45
Tuna Dynamics 1
SEAPODYM
APECOSM

• size-specific advection and diffusion
• advection based on an IBM
• decisions to maximize egg production when energy
  content below some threshold
• decisions to maximize larval survival otherwise
• vertical behavior described from archival-tag data

size-specific advection (towards good adult
habitat but modified by currents) and diffusion
(decreases in good habitat)
depth frequency