2006 HURRICANE FORECAST

1
2006 HURRICANE FORECAST
THE HISTORY OF STORMS IN NEW ENGLAND
DEMONSTRATES THAT THE WEST INDIAN (CAPE VERDE)
HURRICANES MUST BE PLACED IN THE TO-BE-EXPECTED
CLASS OF CATASTROPHE AND THAT THERE IS AN
ESTABLISHED POSSIBILITY THAT ONE MAY OCCUR IN ANY
YEAR TAKEN FROM HURRICANE FLOODS OF 1938
U.S.G.S. WATER SUPPLY PAPER 867
PUBLISHED 1940
2006 Hurricane Forecast Slide 1 June 14, 2006
DEMHS
CONNECTICUT HURRICANE CONFERENCE
2
2006 HURRICANE FORECAST
HURRICANE HISTORY
HURRICANES 1886 - 2006
1. Hurricane of 1888 2. Hurricane of 1903 3. Hur
ricane of 1916 4. Hurricane of 1938 5. Hurricane
of 1944 6. Edna (1954) 7. Carol (1954) 8. Donn
a (1960) 9. Gerda (1969) 10. Agnes (1972) 11. B
elle (1976) 12. Gloria (1985) 13. Bob (1991) 14
. Floyd (1999)
HURRICANE TRACKS 1886 - 2006
4
5
7
9
13
6
12
11
1
2
3
8
10
14
2006 Hurricane Forecast Slide 2 June 14, 2006
DEMHS
CONNECTICUT HURRICANE CONFERENCE
3
2006 HURRICANE FORECAST
HURRICANE POTENTIAL
HURRICANE LANDFALL POTENTIAL BY CATEGORY IN NEW
ENGLAND - NEXT 20 YEARS 2006 - 2026
CATEGORY PROBABILITY (Frequency)
? CAT. I WINDS 74-95 MPH 250 ( 8 Years)
? CAT. II WINDS 96-110 MPH 125 (16 Years)
? CAT. III WINDS 111-130 MPH 54 (37 Years)
? CAT. IV WINDS 131-155 MPH 2 (1,000
Years) ? CAT. V WINDS 155 MPH 0.4 (5,0
00 Years)
2006 Hurricane Forecast Slide 3 June 14, 2006
DEMHS
CONNECTICUT HURRICANE CONFERENCE
4
2006 HURRICANE FORECAST
HURRICANE NAMES
NAMES FOR THE 2006 HURRICANE SEASON
?Alberto Helene Oscar Beryl Isaac Patty
Chris Joyce Rafael Debby Kirk Sandy
Ernesto Leslie Tony Florence Micheal Va
lerie Gordon Nadine William
2006 Hurricane Forecast Slide 4 June 14, 2006
DEMHS
CONNECTICUT HURRICANE CONFERENCE
5
2006 HURRICANE FORECAST
NOAA NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
2006 HURRICANE FORECAST JUNE 1ST - NOVEMBER 30T
H CATEGORY OF STORMS (NORMAL) ACTUAL ??
? NAMED STORMS 13 - 16 ( 9.6) 1 (Thus Far) ?
HURRICANES 8 - 10 (5.9) ? INTENSE HURRICANES
4 - 6 (2.3) TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY 195
(100) MAJOR HURRICANE STRIKE PROBABILITIES
EAST COAST 64 (31) Florida to Maine GULF
COAST 47 (30) Texas to Florida Panhandle
Category III and Above, taken from the 2006
Seasonal forecast provided by Dr. William Grey,

Colorado State University,
2006 Hurricane Forecast Slide 5 June 14, 2006
DEMHS
CONNECTICUT HURRICANE CONFERENCE
6
NEW ENGLAND HURRICANE POTENTIAL
THE CATASTROPHIC IMPACT OF A STRONG CATEGORY III
HURRICANE ON CONNECTICUT AND NEW ENGLAND
2006 Hurricane Forecast Slide 6 June 14, 2006
DEMHS
CONNECTICUT HURRICANE CONFERENCE
7
MILITARY SUPPORT TO CIVIL AUTHORITIES
MAINE
96 - 110 MPH
50 - 73 MPH
74 - 95 MPH
VERMONT
Arthur J. Rocque Jr., Commissioner
NEW HAMPSHIRE
NEW YORK
111 - 130 MPH
MASSACHUSSETTS
RHODE ISLAND
CONNECTICUT
131 - 155 MPH
PENNSYLVANIA
NEW JERSEY
50 - 73 MPH
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A CATEGORY III HURRICANE
February 28, 2000
The Connecticut Fire Academy
8
MILITARY SUPPORT TO CIVIL AUTHORITIES
Arthur J. Rocque Jr., Commissioner
GROTON
OLD SAYBROOK
BRIDGEPORT
?
80 - 110 mph
STAMFORD
130 - 150 mph
2006 Hurricane Forecast Slide 8 June 14, 2006
DEMHS
CONNECTICUT HURRICANE CONFERENCE
9
2006 HURRICANE FORECAST
2006 Hurricane Forecast Slide 9 June 14, 2006
DEMHS
CONNECTICUT HURRICANE CONFERENCE
10
2006 HURRICANE FORECAST
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT
Douglas Glowacki Program Specialist Department o
f Emergency Management Homeland Security
25 Sigourney Street Hartford, Connecticut 06106
Phone [phone] Email Douglas.glowacki_at_p
o.state.ct.us