RESEARCH ON MINIMUM WAGE INITIATIVES

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RESEARCH ON MINIMUM WAGE INITIATIVES

• Presented by David Mermin
• Lake Research Partners
• Oct. 27, 2005

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Strategic Summary

• Minimum wage initiatives enjoy very broad
  support across the political spectrum and intense
  backing from core progressive constituencies.
• Support for increasing the minimum wage is
  particularly strong among voters making less than
  40,000, older women, and voters with a high
  school education or less.
• Minimum wage initiatives are particularly
  motivating to younger women, new registrants,
  non-college women, Democratic men, and low-income
  voters. These are voters who are often fairly
  difficult to mobilize.

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Minimum Wage Initiatives

• Minimum wage initiatives passed by wide margins
  in both Florida (71 to 23) and Nevada (73 to
  23).
• Support in both states was strongest among both
  key progressive groups as well as some key groups
  of swing voters
• Base voters making less than 40,000, less
  religious voters, Democrats (Kerry, Castor
  supporters)
• Swing older women, voters with a high school
  education or less, non-college educated women,
  new registrants (in Nevada)
• The minimum wage measures also tended to motivate
  progressive voters to turn out on Election Day,
  particularly strong Democrats.

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Minimum Wage Initiatives (continued)

• In Florida, the minimum wage rated beneath the
  medical malpractice initiative in terms of
  motivational power. In Nevada, minimum wage was
  competitive with the medical malpractice
  initiative in this respect.
• But the minimum wage did not cause a conservative
  backlash
• In Florida, 23 percent of strong Democrats but
  only 11 percent of strong Republicans were
  motivated by the measure.
• In Nevada, 36 percent of strong Democrats but
  only 7 percent of strong Republicans were
  motivated by the measure.

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Strongest Themes

• No one who works full-time should live in
  poverty.
• Minimum wage workers make only 206 a week, many
  of them parents and adults trying to raise
  children and make ends meet.
• Raising the minimum wage shows that we value hard
  work over welfare and will save taxpayers money.
• Personal stories are a powerful way to
  contextualize this issue and relate it to values
  of hard work and family.
• A populist theme juxtaposing the minimum wage
  with CEO salaries is also strong with base
  voters.

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The Opposition

• The argument that low-wage individuals could seek
  out more training and get better-paying jobs
  carries some weight for many voters.
• In some states, a raise to over 7.00 an hour is
  more vulnerable to attacks that it will shock the
  economy and cause a recession.
• We need to be mindful that the Chamber of
  Commerce is perceived by voters as a trusted
  source on this issue.

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RESEARCH ON MINIMUM WAGE INITIATIVES

• The Minimum Wage Initiative at the Ballot Box

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The minimum wage amendment had no trouble passing
in a Nevada electorate that supported malpractice
caps and went for Bush by 2 points.
MINIMUM WAGE
MEDICAL MALPRACTICE
PRESIDENTIAL VOTE
NOW I AM GOING TO READ YOU A SHORT SUMMARY OF A
FEW OF THEM, AFTER I READ EACH ONE PLEASE TELL ME
IF YOU VOTED _YES, IN FAVOR OF THE INITIATIVE OR
_NO, AGAINST THE INITIATIVE OR DID YOU NOT VOTE
ON THIS INITIATIVE?
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The minimum wage amendment also passed in Florida
by an impressive margin.
PARENTAL NOTIFICATION
MINIMUM WAGE
MEDICAL MALPRACTICE
NOW I AM GOING TO READ YOU A SHORT SUMMARY OF A
FEW OF THEM, AFTER I READ EACH ONE PLEASE TELL ME
IF YOU VOTED _YES, IN FAVOR OF THE INITIATIVE OR
_NO, AGAINST THE INITIATIVE OR DID YOU NOT VOTE
ON THIS INITIATIVE?
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Support crossed party lines in both Florida and
Nevada.

• Independent voters in Nevada also supported the
  Minimum wage initiative with 78 voting Yes (15
  voting No).

NOW I AM GOING TO READ YOU A SHORT SUMMARY OF A
FEW OF THEM, AFTER I READ EACH ONE PLEASE TELL ME
IF YOU VOTED _YES, IN FAVOR OF THE INITIATIVE OR
_NO, AGAINST THE INITIATIVE OR DID YOU NOT VOTE
ON THIS INITIATIVE?
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Arizona voters broadly and intensely support a
statewide initiative to raise the minimum wage.
6.15/Hour 7.10/Hour
61
48
Asked of half the sample.
This initiative would raise the minimum wage in
Arizona from 5.15 per hour to 6.15/7.10 per
hour and then index the minimum wage to inflation
every year. If the election were held today
would you vote YES or NO on this initiative to
raise the minimum wage in Arizona, or are you
undecided
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Ohio voters are extremely supportive of a minimum
wage increase to 6.50. Raising only to 6.15
actually decreases support.
6.15/Hour 6.50/Hour
50
56
There are only minor differences in support when
phrased with a two-step increase.
Asked of half the sample. Combined ballots
This/Another initiative would raise the minimum
wage in Ohio to 6.15/6.50 per hour, phased in
over 2 years and then index the minimum wage to
inflation every year. If the election were held
today would you vote Yes or No on this initiative
to raise the minimum wage in Ohio, or are you
unsure?
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This issue unites Democrats and Independents and
divides Republicans.
Ohio Minimum Wage Ballots by Party Identification
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Michigan voters also broadly and intensely
support a statewide initiative to raise the
minimum wage.
6.75/Hour 7.15/Hour
47
40
Asked of half the sample.
Respondents were given the 6.75 or 7.15 level
and half were offered either a phase in over 2
years and indexed to inflation OR an initial
raise to 5.75 (for the 6.15 raise) or 6.15
(for the 7.15 raise) and indexed to inflation.
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Even when offered a lower level at 6.15,
Michigan voters favored the higher levels.
Likely voters Drop off voters
Drop off voters defined as those who voted in
either 2000 or 2004 and are not likely to vote in
2006.
Now here is a different minimum wage initiative
that could be on the ballot next year, known as
the Moderate Minimum Wage increase. This
initiative would raise the minimum wage to 6.15
per hour over two years. If the election were
held today, which initiative would you prefer
this moderate minimum wage increase or the
previous, higher minimum wage increases you have
already heard about
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Across the states we found the strongest
supporters of minimum wage initiatives to be

• Democrats
• Union households
• Union Members
• Registered Non-Voters

• African Americans
• Hispanics
• Non-college women

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In Arizona, we found infrequent Hispanic voters
in near unanimous support.
Combined Initial Ballot Among Infrequent Hispanic
Democrats in Arizona
94
This initiative would raise the minimum wage in
Arizona from 5.15 per hour to 6.15/7.10 per
hour and then index the minimum wage to inflation
every year. If the election were held today
would you vote YES or NO on this initiative to
raise the minimum wage in Arizona, or are you
undecided
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Drop-off voters in Michigan are stronger in their
support of raising the minimum wage, notably more
so with the higher raise.
6.75/Hour 7.15/Hour
Drop off voters defined as those who voted in
either 2000 or 2004 and are not likely to vote in
2006.
66
67
Asked of half the sample.
Respondents were given the 6.75 or 7.15 level
and half were offered either a phase in over 2
years and indexed to inflation OR an initial
raise to 5.75 (for the 6.15 raise) or 6.15
(for the 7.15 raise) and indexed to inflation.
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RESEARCH ON MINIMUM WAGE INITIATIVES

• Turnout Impact

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Voters showed high levels of interest in ballot
measures all across the country.
THINKING ABOUT TUESDAYS ELECTION, THERE WERE A
NUMBER OF INITIATIVES ON THE BALLOT. HOW
INTERESTED WERE YOU IN THE BALLOT ISSUES IN YOUR
STATE THIS YEAR? WERE YOU VERY INTERESTED,
FAIRLY INTERESTED, NOT TOO INTERESTED OR NOT AT
ALL INTERESTED?
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In Florida, younger African American voters were
highly motivated by the minimum wage initiative.
Florida Interest in Election with Minimum Wage
Initiative
69
45
The younger African American sample were
registered voters with no vote history.
And if the this proposal minimum wage were on
the ballot next year, would it make you more
interested in the election, less interested in
the election, or would it make no difference?
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Infrequent Anglo Democrats/Independents in
Arizona would also be more likely to turn out
with the minimum wage initiative on the ballot.
Interest in Election with Min. Wage Ballot Among
Infrequent Anglo Dem/Ind.
42
And if the initiative to raise the minimum wage
were on the ballot next year, would it make you
more interested in the election, less interested,
or would it not change your level of interest in
the election?
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For infrequent voters in Michigan, a minimum wage
initiative could drive them to the polls in 2006.
Drop off voters defined as those who voted in
either 2000 or 2004 and are not likely to vote in
2006.
55
Would this minimum wage initiative on the ballot
make you more likely to turn out and vote in the
state election in November 2006, would it make
you less likely to turn out and vote, or would it
not make any difference to you?
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RESEARCH ON MINIMUM WAGE INITIATIVES

• Positioning and Messages

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Hard work is a value that resonates strongly with
Arizona voters. They agree intensely that
full-time workers should not live in poverty.
Positive Positioning

• No one who works full-time should get a wage so
  low that they live in poverty. 74 Strongly
  agree 84 Total agree
• It is just wrong for any American who works hard
  and plays by the rules to get a wage so low that
  they live in poverty. 63 Strongly agree 76
  Total agree
• Raising the minimum wage is an effective way to
  reward work and keep people off of welfare.
  48 Strongly agree 67 Total agree
• Raising the minimum wage is an effective way to
  fight poverty. 37 Strongly Agree 61 Total
  agree
• Asked of half the sample

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However, Arizona voters tend to believe that
workers have a choice in employment, so the yes
campaign should inoculate with messages on a fair
reward for hard work.
Negative Positioning

• If employees are unhappy with their wages, they
  should get more training and education and find a
  better-paying job. 50 Strongly agree 71
  Total agree
• If employees are unhappy with their wages, they
  should quit and find a better-paying job. 33
  Strongly agree, 49 Total agree
• Raising the minimum wage will raise the cost of
  everything we buy in Arizona. 25 Strongly
  agree 49 Total agree
• Raising the minimum wage will hurt small
  businesses and cost jobs. 24 Strongly agree
  43 Total agree
• Raising the minimum wage will just make our state
  more of a magnet for illegal immigrants. 18
  Strongly agree 29 Total agree

Asked of half the sample
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In Arizona, the top messages focus on valuing
work and families needing to make ends meet.

• Work over welfare
• When the minimum wage is as low as it is now,
  some full-time minimum wage workers in Arizona
  make less money than they would on welfare.
  Raising the minimum wage sends the right message
  to people we value hard work. And when people
  choose work over welfare, they become productive
  members of society and Arizona taxpayers save
  money on social services. 56 Very convincing
  78 Total convincing
• Value work
• The minimum wage is our way of saying that we
  value work, especially the tough jobs performed
  by hotel maids, childcare workers, and nursing
  home employees. We should make sure the workers
  who are the backbone of our economy receive fair
  paychecks that keep up with inflation and put
  them and their families above the poverty line.
  49 Very convincing 80 Total convincing
• Make ends meet
• In Arizona, more than 80 percent of workers who
  would be affected by an increase in the minimum
  wage are adults, and many of them are trying to
  raise their children and make ends meet. A
  full-time worker making the minimum wage makes
  just 206 a week, much less than it takes to make
  ends meet for food, rent, health care, childcare,
  transportation, and other necessary expenses.
  49 Very convincing 77 Total convincing

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The work over welfare and making ends meet also
test well in Michigan.

• Work Over Welfare
• When the minimum wage is as low as it is now,
  some full-time minimum wage workers in Michigan
  make less money than they would on welfare.
  Raising the minimum wage sends the right message
  to people we value hard work. And when people
  choose work over welfare, they become productive
  members of society and Michigan taxpayers save
  money on social services. 55 Very convincing
  80 Total convincing
• Give Young Families a Start
• The economy in Michigan is changing.
  Increasingly, young families starting out are
  working for minimum wage and struggle just to
  keep the floor from falling out from under them.
  With soaring gas prices, home heating prices, and
  rising health care costs we need to make sure
  Michigan is a destination that attracts young
  families looking to plant their roots. We need
  to give our young families a good start by
  providing a decent minimum wage 55 Very
  convincing 74 Total convincing
• Make ends meet
• Nearly three quarters of workers who would be
  affected by an increase in the minimum wage are
  adults, and many of them are trying to raise
  their children and make ends meet. A full-time
  worker making the minimum wage makes just 206 a
  week before taxes, much less than it takes to
  make ends meet for food, rent, health care, home
  heating, transportation, and other necessary
  expenses. 54 Very convincing 76 Total
  convincing

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RESEARCH ON MINIMUM WAGE INITIATIVES

• Looking Ahead to 2006

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Looking Ahead

• We need a coordinated ballot initiative program
  for 2006. Otherwise we will be spending a lot of
  money playing defense.
• Use ballot measures to frame elections, generate
  increased turnout, and define progressive
  principles.
• Employ multiple initiatives that reinforce each
  other (as opposed to the silo approach of
  discrete issue areas).
• Conservatives do this well, in part because
  born-again voters are particularly motivated by a
  number of wedge initiatives.

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Looking Ahead (continued)

• The popularity of the minimum wage provides
  progressives with an excellent strategy to
  rebound. Still, in order to be more effective,
  progressive candidates will need to rally around
  the issue and draw contrasts with their opponents
  in ways they have not to date.
• Ballot initiatives are even more important in an
  off-year election than an onyear. A number of
  key progressive groups including younger voters,
  new registrants, and lower income voters, have
  high drop-off rates but responded well to
  initiatives on the minimum wage and health care.

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Looking Toward 2006 (continued)

• Given the popularity of the minimum wage and the
  robustness of the issue against attack, we may
  want a more engaged debate on this topic.
• Swing voters see increasing the minimum wage as
  reasonable way to help people who are helping
  themselves this offers progressives a prime
  opportunity to talk about our principles in a way
  that could help re-frame the moral values debate
  on our terms.
• The minimum wage could be an excellent vehicle
  for ending the erosion of older blue-collar
  voters who have been cross-pressured by
  conservatives over moral values.

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