North Carolinas Future: Population, Politics, Policy

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North Carolinas FuturePopulation, Politics,
Policy

• February 18, 2009

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BIG TRENDS

• NC has shifted from a LARGE, spread-out state to
  a denser MEGA-state.
• NC has shifted from an agrarian to a metropolitan
  society.
• The Charlotte-metro area, the Triad, and the
  Triangle have emerged as modern city-states.

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Projected Top 30 Fastest Growing Counties by
2005-2020
Source U.S. Census
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1970 12 non-rural counties
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2000 21 non-rural counties
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2020 28 non-rural counties
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A More Metropolitan South
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Metropolitanization of NC
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Rise of the City-State Metros

• 13 core counties in the 3 City-State Metros
• Piedmont
  Triad
• - Guilford - Forsyth
• - Randolph - Davidson
• - Rockingham
• Charlotte Metro Research Triangle
• Mecklenburg - Union - Wake - Durham
• Gaston - Cabarrus - Johnston - Orange

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of NC Citizens Living in City-State Metros
This definition of workers does not include
seasonal employment. Source US Census Bureau
American FactFinder Survey
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of NC Citizens Living in City-State Metros
Source US Census Bureau American FactFinder
Survey
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Hispanic Population Change (2000-2005) Selected
NC Counties
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What Growth Means to Redistricting

• In 2003 the ideal population was 160,986 for a
  Senate district and 67,087 for a House district.
• If reapportioned today the ideal population is
  177,130 for a Senate district and 73,804 for a
  House district.

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Wake and Charlotte More seats

• In the past 6 years, Wake County has grown by
  about 160,000 people and Mecklenburg County has
  grown by 130,000
• Based on current lines, each should gain another
  Senate seat and 2 House seats in 2010.
• 12 of the 13 fastest growing Senate Districts are
  in the Triangle and Charlotte metro areas, as are
  23 of the 27 fastest growing House Districts.

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Once Steady, Electorate Shows Change
Portrait of Three Electorates, 2000, 2004 and
2008
Source Exit Polls 2000, 2004, 2008
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Voter Registration by Race, 2004-2008
 
Source North Carolina State Board of Elections
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Vote by Race and Gender, 2004 2008
Source Exit Polls 2004 2008
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Presidential Voting by Age, 2004-2008
Source Exit Polls 2004, 2008
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City-State Metros Voting Shifts
Obama won 334,876 more votes than Kerry
in core Metros. PIEDMONT TRIAD - 15
point swing 08 D 1 04 R
14 Obama v. Kerry 81,319
RESEARCH TRIANGLE - 27
point swing CHARLOTTE METRO - 18 point
swing 08 D 21 08 D 7 04
D 6 04 R 11 Obama v. Kerry
130,339 Obama v. Kerry 123,218

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City-State Metros Voting Shifts
08 R 14 04 R 22
08 D 11 08 D 18
04 R 9 04 D 1
08 R 34 04 R
42 08 R 42
04 R 49 08 D 45
04 D 35 08 R
18 08 R 25 04 R
34 08 D 52 04 R 36 04 D
36 08 D 24
04 D 4 08 D 15
04 R 2 08 R 27
08 R 24 04 R 41 04 R 36
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She Aint What She Used to Be

• How can we strengthen North Carolina regional
  economies to compete in a global marketplace?
• With city-state regions composed of multiple
  municipalities and counties, how do we govern in
  a democratic and participatory fashion?
• How do we build community in a multi-ethnic,
  mobile society?
• How do we produce a new generation of leaders,
  public as well as private, to match leaders who
  built the foundation for the North Carolina of
  today?

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For More Information
Program on Public Life UNC-Chapel Hill CB
3365 Chapel Hill, NC 27599 Phone (919)
962-5936 Email southnow_at_unc.edu www.southnow.org
Ferrel Guillory, Director (guillory_at_unc.edu) Andr
ew Holton, Associate Director Jennifer Weaver,
Assistant Director Leroy Towns, Research Fellow