Ocean Observations and Marine Hazards

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Ocean Observations and Marine Hazards
Oi06, 21-23 March, London
Keith Alverson Director, Global Ocean Observing
System Head of IOC Ocean Observations and Services
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Talk Outline

• December 26, 2004 - some imagery
• Is building a warning system easy?
• Past tsunami - where, how big, what warnings.
• Warning systems then and now.
• The Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)
• Questions

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Talk Outline

• December 26, 2004 - imagery
• Is building a warning system easy?
• Past tsunami - where, how big, what damage.
• Warning systems then and now.
• The Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)
• Questions

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Indonesia The Aftermath in Pictures
Photos Courtesy of Stephen Hill, UNESCO Office,
Jakarta
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CALANG First Contact after 1 week
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Lhok Nga Ship capsized
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Banda Aceh ship 2km inland
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Ground Zero Ulee Lheue 1
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Ground Zero Ulee Lheue 2
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Ground Zero Ulee Lheue 3
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Ground Zero Ulee Lheue 4
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Ulee Lheue mosque oriented and built to survive
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Calang mosque the only building standing
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Meulaboh mosque open construction
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Banda Aceh
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Banda Aceh Ground Zero - 1
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Banda Aceh Ground Zero - 2
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Banda Aceh Ground Zero - 3
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Banda Aceh Ground Zero - 4
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People returning
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Staking out land ownership
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Rebuilding at original location
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Talk Outline

• December 26, 2004 - imagery
• Is building a warning system easy?
• Past tsunami - where, how big, what damage.
• Warning systems then and now.
• The Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)
• Questions

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A warning system is simple to buildbecause
A tsunami obeys linear shallow water gravity wave
dynamics. The wave is hydrostatic Bottom
Pressure P?g? Phase speed does not depend on
wavelength, so the initial energy will not be
dispersed and thus arrives at a distant point all
at once.
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A warning system is simple to buildbecause
propagation can be easily and rapidly predicted
using Bottom topography map Initial source
characterization An extremely simple
model propagation can be easily and rapidly
detected using Bottom mounted pressure
sensors Tide gauges Satellites (if they are
looking!)
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A warning system is simple to buildbecause
Traveling at about the speed of a commercial
airliner, it will take many hours for a tsunami
to cross an ocean basin, substantially slower
than a warning can be made available using modern
communications technology.
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A warning system is difficult to buildbecause
As a tsunami approaches the shore altltH no longer
holds and non-linear dynamics come into play.
Local run-up at a given section of coast is
not predictable. Sensitive to myriad details of
near-shore bathymetry and poorly known physical
dependencies, it varies by an order of magnitude
over a few kilometers. Conclusion Historical
data is very important
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Run-up in Sri Lanka
Liu et al, Nature, 308, 2005
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Run-up in Banda Aceh
Borrero, Nature, 308, 2005
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A warning system is difficult to buildbecause
The repeat frequency for tsunamis is very long.
Too long for a stand-alone system to be
maintained. To be sustained the system should be
embedded within broader efforts to operationally
observe the ocean in a multi-user, multi hazard
context. Due to national and international
political pressures to develop systems and their
governance mechanisms quickly, this is not
happening.
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A multi-user hazard warning system
Alverson, Nature 434, 2005
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Talk Outline

• December 26, 2004 - imagery
• Is building a warning system easy?
• Past tsunami - where, how big, what damage.
• Warning systems then and now.
• The Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)
• Questions

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Historical Tsunami EventsPacific (70)
Mediterranean, Caribbean, Indian (10 each)
Note These numbers are highly uncertain due to
highly inhomogeneous length and quality of
records.
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Japan 1896 Meiji-Sanriku TSUNAMI
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Japan 1896 Meiji-Sanriku TSUNAMI
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Japan 1896 Meiji-Sanriku TSUNAMI
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Hilo, April 1946
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Hilo, April 1946
Bakery on a Boxcar
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Hilo, May 1960
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Hilo, May 1960
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Record-breaking Height for 8000-Year Old Tsunami
in the North Atlantic (gt20m in Shetland Islands)
Bondevik et al, Eos, 84, 31, 2003
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Talk Outline

• December 26, 2004 - imagery
• Is building a warning system easy?
• Past Tsunami - where, how big, what damage.
• Warning Systems then and now.
• The Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)
• Questions

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ICG-PTWS - In the Pacific

• The International Coordination Group for the
  Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific ICG-PTWS
  (formerly ITSU) was formed by the IOC in 1968.
• 27 countries in the Pacific region participate
• The system is based on national and regional
  warning centers and an international information
  center (ITIC)
• Global network of tsunami scientists
• Training program

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How it works

• Detect and characterize trigger from seismic
  data.
• Issue watch as required
• Confirm or reject tsunami generation hypothesis
  from sea level data
• Cancel watch or issue warning
• National response and readiness programs

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Maximum Run-ups in Hawaii from 13 Pacific-wide
Tsunamis
RUNUP Coastal wave heights above mean sea
level, as measured by debris on shore.
ITSU
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ICG/IOTWS - In the Indian Ocean

• Was formed by the IOC in 2005.

Now consists of

• A working interim warning system
• A working cooperation and governance mechanism
  (29 participating countries)
• A secretariat in Perth, Australia
• An information center in Jakarta, Indonesia
• More than 10 real time reporting tide gauges
• Many countries in the region have been assessed
  and advised

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Talk Outline

• December 26, 2004 - imagery
• Is building a warning system easy?
• Past tsunami - where, how big, what damage.
• Warning systems then and now.
• The Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)
• Questions

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The Global Ocean Observing System
NASA, NOAA, JCOMMOPS, FNMOC, CRT, URK
The GOOS Project Office is financially supported
by UNESCO/IOC, USA, UK, WMO and UNEP
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GOOS is the ocean component of GEOSS Vice
Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr. U.S. Under
Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and
Atmosphere GEOSS co-chair Speaking to the 130
member states of the IOC at their biennial
Assembly at UNESCO headquarters, Paris, 2005.
GEOSS is integrating Earth observations for
societal benefits
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GOOS is a cooperation and coordination mechanism
building

• sustained, internationally coordinated
  observations of the oceans
• a platform for the generation of oceanographic
  products and services
• a forum for interaction between research,
  operational, and user communities

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GOOS is designed to

• Monitor and better understand climate
• Improve weather and climate prediction
• Provide ocean forecasts
• Improve management of marine and coastal
  ecosystems and resources
• Mitigate damage from natural hazards and
  pollution
• Protect life and property on coasts and at sea
• Support scientific research

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Major Accomplishments to date

• The open ocean observing system for climate is
  now more than 50 complete.
• The coastal ocean observing system strategy and
  implementation plans are now approved.
• Relevant components of the GOOS are now made
  available for operational hazard warnings.

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The global ocean observing system for climate
February 2006
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Total in situ networks
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100
40
82
80
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72
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21
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The global ocean observing system for climate
February 2006
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Total in situ networks
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100
Data system
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Products and forecasts
82
80
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72
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21
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Progress 2004 48 2005 55 2006 57?
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Argo floats 2003 to present
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2. Coastal GOOS
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Implementing Coastal GOOS
1st GOOS Regional Forum, Athens, 2-6 December,
2002 2nd GOOS Regional Forum, Nadi, Fiji, 7-9
February 2004 3rd GOOS Regional Forum, Cape Town,
14-17 November 2006
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GOOS is implemented by nations
UK NTSLF
JCOMM OPA, NOAA/OCO
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Test of Real Time Sea Level Data Collection and
Reporting for Tsunami Warning - 28/3/2005
Salalah
Hanimaadhoo
Colombo
Male
Lamu
Gan
Port La Rue
Zanzibar
Jetty
Rodorigues
Port Louise
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Sea Level Data for M8.5 Sumatra Earthquake on 28
March 2005
3/30 JST
3/29
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Future challenges
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50 of the planned in-situ GOOS climate network
() Polar regions and deep ocean
(technology) Developing countries (Capacity
building) Non-physical variables
(biogeochemistry, biology)
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Integrated data products (GODAE,
CODAE) Operational observing network (Hazard
Warnings) Sustainability - eg ARGO network,
Satellite altimeters Robust intergovernmental
commitment mechanism
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IOC is seeking a scientist (PhD3) to fill a new
post in the ocean observations and services
section. The primary duty will be to communicate
information on ocean observations worldwide to a
wide and diverse audience. Standard UN P4 post
( 80k per year, free of income tax). See
www.unesco.org/employment. Deadline 17 May, 2006.
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