Trend Forecasting Process

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Trend Forecasting Process

• FMD 451

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Fashion Forecasting

• The creative process that can be understood,
  practiced, and applied by anyone who has the
  tools.
• Need to have a balanced view that seeks out new
  styles breaking the cultural edge, and the
  reality of changing demographics, identifies the
  fad, and the long wave of change.
• Uses product planning, gain market share,
  position products against competitors, shape
  collections, style directions, color and textiles
  directions, ect.

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Steps in developing a forecast

1. ID the facts about past trends/forecasts
2. Determine cause of change in the past
3. Look at differences between past forecasts and
   consumer behavior
4. Identify factors likely to affect future trends
5. Apply forecasting tools and techniques
   accurately.
6. Follow the forecast continually- see if
   expectations deviate
7. Revise the forecast when necessary.

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Forecasting Specialties

• Long term forecasts- 5 or more years
• Short term forecasts- more than one year ahead.

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Forecasting Scans- Media Scan
-

• Fashion scans- follow latest fashion and
  lifestyle trends visit Fashion capitals, scan
  media, network with people in the creative fields
  (arts, entertainment, interior design, cosmetics,
  and architecture.
• Consumer Scans- Consumer segmentation (you
  already did), point of sale data (retailers and
  manufactures).
• Fashion scan consumer scan fashion analysis-
  what will happen next!
• Do your research!

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Media ScanTrend ID, analysis and synthesis

• Soak up news that relates to change!
• National newspaper-Wall Street Journal, New York
  Times
• Trade papers- WWD, California Apparel News,
  Advertising Age
• Fashion and Lifestyle magazines( food, travel,
  home décor, health, gossip, political, buisness,
  science, mens and womens)

• 4. Internet- Popular Culture (world wide)
  coolhunter
• 5. Watch past fashion shows
• 6. Take a trip to popular shopping venues,
  fashionable neighborhoods.
• 7. Pop Culture movies, music, TV, books,
  theater, art.

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Media ScanTrend ID, analysis and synthesis

• Collect bits and pieces from a broad spectrum of
  sources.
• Link signals, shape them into a vision of what
  the future may be.
• Pay attention to
• New and unusual business
• Innovative and novel products
• Unusual travel destinations
• New, rediscovered, or redesigned leisure
  activities.
• New shopping locations,store designs, services.
• Stories about people and their adjustment to
  lifes challenges.
• Neighborhoods with interesting mix of people,
  shopping or ethnic cultures.

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Media ScanTrend ID, analysis and synthesis

• Collect information( folders), organize it into a
  list of themes, issues, ideas, that capture your
  attention.
• Trends require a label!
• Start general and become specific!
• -general examples new music, financial issues,
  cult movies, unusual jobs
• specific examples cyberstyle, GenNesters,
  Asian Influence
• Once the trend begins to emerge, think about how
  the trend relates to a specific product category
  or target market.

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Media ScanTrend ID, analysis and synthesis

• Ideas for Project 2 Media scan
• Trend folders
• Cite all resources used
• You should address all parts of the media scan.
• Summarize what your found- Pick 10 major
  topics/broad categories(20 sources in each) Index
  them in your paper with sources and images.
  Summarize in your paper.

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Describe the Zeitgeist- The Spirit of the
Times

• Fashion is a reflection of the times in which it
  is created and worn.
• Fashion responds to what is modern, all cultural
  components respond to the spirit of the times.
• The Zeitgeist covers all product categories.
• Media reports culture but is also shaped by it.
• Lifecycles are associated with the Zeitgeist.
• An expression of modernity, of the current state
  of culture, of the incipient and unarticulated
  tastes of the consuming public.

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Zeitgeist

• Next generation- Tweens 8-12, looking to computer
  games and Japanese comic books for inspiration.
• Pay attention to Style interactions between
  apparel, cuisine, sports, architecture,
  interiors, automobiles, toys, avocations,
  pastimes, and play.

• Changes in the marketplace
• New fashion- seasonal to continuous
• Lack of design leadership
• Rules for appropriateness relaxed
• Consumers declared independence
• Emergence of No fashion-casual Friday, ect.
• Cheap chic
• Fast fashion

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Fashion History Research- Describe the following

• Designers signature style, ex. Tom Ford 1990s
• Style leader- Jacqueline Kennedy- 1960s
• A fashion look- Flapper look 1920s
• Bohemian element- The hippies, hip hop
• Market segment middle class 1950s
• Celebrity Icon- Madonna material girl- 1980s
• Model- Twiggy 1960s
• Fiber/fabric- Chanel Jersey

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Timeline
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Research

• Describe- what is shaping the trend,
• Why has the trend developed
• Who is leading the trend.
• Look to past designs- Cyclical nature of fashion!
• Analyze the trends that affect your target
  market.

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Forecast for 2010! Color

• Color Story- combined into prints, fabrics, all
  areas usually 200 pieces per collection.
• Work 18-24 months in advance
• Color Association of the United States
• Psychology of color- color preferences.
• Separate for men, women, interiors, youth.

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Words used in color

• Hue- the color name
• Saturation/ chroma- intensity, strength of color,
  
• Value- lightness or darkness of a color.
• Tint- white added
• Shade- black added
• Tone- Grey added
• Examples concentrated, deep, subdue, clear.

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Color Marketing- Name

• Name a color with imagination, should be able to
  be used across product categories, understand
  your customers perception of the colors. You
  want to depict a mood!
• Examples from the environment
• Natural phenomena sky, sunshine, grass green.
• Flora- poppy red, moss green, orchid
• Fauna- flamingo pink, robin egg blue
• Gemstones- amber, copper
• Food and drink- caramel, champagne,
• Spices- paprika, curry red
• Dyes- indigo
• Building materials- adobe, terra cotta, bronze
• Locations- Capri blue

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Color Cycles

• High chroma-- multi colored--subdue colors--
  earth tones-- achromatic colors (black, white,
  grey)--purple.
• Look at your media scan--- what did you see-
  colors celebrities were wearing, locations, music
  covers, interiors, museum exhibits, toys,
  electronics, food, graphics, ect. What is selling
  in stores?!
• May be done in house or use a professional color
  system like PANTONE.
• Images will help you describe color choices.
• Predict 4-7 colors per direction.
• Think about season- weather, temperature

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Textiles

• Overall style botanical, romantic, folkloric
• Interpretation- realistic, abstract, geometric.
• Scale- small vs large scale motifs
• Figure ground relationship- blank space vs.
  crowded patterns
• Reference to art styles Art Deco
• Complexity
• Cultural reference- Asian inspired, African
  motifs
• Historic references- time periods
• Color story- sherbet colors, tropical, brights
  with Neutral.
• Motifs- golf, seashell, animal print.

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The Look Design

• The totality of the look minimalist, feminine,
  sexy redifined.
• Theme or Mood gothic romanticisim
• Swing of fashion pendulum- flared to narrow
• Proportions of pieces-placement of waistline
• Silhouette- tubular, hourglass, wedge
• Point of emphasis- shoulders, bust, waist

• Fit- body hugging, loose
• Details- collar, pocket, sleeve, cuff
• Exaggeration in details.
• Trims- beading, feathers, lace
• Findings- button, zippers, snaps
• Fabric type- woven, knits,
• Fabric finishing- dyeing, abrasion
• Specific fabrics- transparent, velvet, ect.

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Semiotics

• The science of analyzing culture as a system of
  signs.
• Visual concepts
• Referencing the past
• Ethnic sources
• Sexuality
• Sports
• Appropriateness- uptown chic

• 6. Avant-Garde
• 7. Modernity
• 8. Postmodern

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Trends

• Mega Trend- restructuring of culture affects all
  industries ex. Eco friendly
• Major Trend- broad public appeal
• Minor Trend- limited or small appeal. Only refers
  to a specialized group of consumers.
• Describe potential of trend, how long it will
  last, interaction with other trends.

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Trend Reporting Label the trend

• Look- retro, Japanese influence
• Mood or spirit- youthful, playful
• Lifestyle message
• Tie in with celebrity
• Target Market- urban youth
• Brand image
• Concept- career casual
• Source of inspiration- Moroccan
• Pop culture influence

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Forecasting Traps

• Time, limitations, assumptions
• Lack of imagination, research, insight
• Excessive Optimism
• Hidden Agendas, wish fulfillment vs. reality
• Two sides of the coin- trend and countertrend
• Generation gap
• Overlapping trends- sectors
• Fad vs. Trend
• Dont oversell.
• See Appendix for resources
• (Mudpie.co.uk, WGSN)

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