Preparing for a Changing Climate Implications for

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Preparing for a Changing Climate
Implications for Coastal/Marine Sectors in the
Northeast
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A joint project of Clean Air Cool Planet,
Cornell University Department of Horticulture,
the Tellus Institute, and University of Vermont
Cooperative Extension Service funded in part by
a grant from The Hunt Foundation.
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Climate

• is weather over the long-term
• Climate Change
• is how weather changes over the long-term
• its measured in decades

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What is global warming?

• Increases in global average temperature,
  translating into regional climate change
• Rising temperatures
• Changing precipitation
• Extreme weather events

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Causes of global warming

• Emissions of major Greenhouse gases such as
  carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous
  oxide (N2O)
• Emissions of other greenhouse gases like
  hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulfur
  hexafluoride
• Greenhouse gas emissions are predominantly from
  human activities, although there is a slight role
  of natural sources
• Warming is primarily due to carbon dioxide
  emissions

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Sources of carbon dioxide

• Electric generation
• Transportation
• Space and water heating
• Other industrial/manufacturing

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Atmospheric CO2 over time
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Temperature is rising worldwide
Annual temperature trends 1976 - 1999
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Northern Hemisphere Temperatures
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Surface Temperatures, 1000 to 2100
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Change in surface temperatures
Temperature range, degrees C
Source UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change
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Global warming leads to other environmental
impacts

• - Ice cap melting
• - Changes in
  growing season
• -Shifts in
  species

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Annual precipitation trends 1900 - 2000
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Percent of the USA with above Normal Proportion
of Total Annual Precipitation From 1-day Extreme
Events (gt2)
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Changes in Sea Level 2000 -2500
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Changes in the Northeastover the past 100 years

• Average winter temperature increase of 1.8
  degrees F
• Rhode Island and New Hampshire have experienced
  2-3 times the national average of warming
• Sea-levels have risen 10-25 cm.

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Why its important for the New England region to
act

• Climate change already affects many sectors,
  including coastal and marine
• CO2 stays in the atmosphere 100 years
• We can limit the extent of climate change
• Prepare for positive and negative effects

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Major environmental impacts

• Changes in temperature, precipitation and sea
  level rise will also produce impacts in
• Forestry
• Industry and energy
• Agriculture
• Human health
• 
  

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Potential Coastal/Marine Impacts from Global
Warming

• Global Warming will have impacts on
• - Coastal habitats and coastal development
• - Water quality
• Fisheries
• Aquaculture
• - Biodiversity

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Potential positive effects

• As sea levels rise, estuaries will become larger
  and extend further upstream
• - Flooding of land around estuaries may
  replenish nutrients taken from soil by
  agriculture
• - Aquaculture may benefit from the shallow
  environment provided at the edges of the estuary

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Potential negative effects

• - Higher sea levels
• - Erosion of coastal areas
• - Damage to estuaries
• - Decline in water quality
• - Decreasing yield for fisheries
• - Decrease in marine biodiversity/ migration of
  species
• - Increase in extreme weather events

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Negative Impacts on Coastal Habitats and
Development

• Sea Level
• Global Warming melts ice caps
• and expands water, resulting in
• a rising sea level.
• Sea levels are already rising off New England
  coasts

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SRES Sea-Level Rise
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Negative Impacts on Coastal Habitats and
Development

• Sea Level
• Rising sea levels
• Erode beaches
• Intensify flooding
• Increase salinity of
• bays, rivers, and
• groundwater tables
• Inundate low-lying lands such as wetlands

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Negative Impacts on Coastal Habitats and
Development

• Erosion
• Coastal erosion is caused by
• Storms
• Precipitation
• Sea level rise

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Negative Impacts on Coastal Habitats and
Development

• Coastal erosion results in
• Property damage
• Beach erosion
• Higher insurance costs
• Negative impacts on tourism

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Negative Impacts on Coastal Habitats and
Development

• Erosion property damage

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Negative Impacts on Coastal Habitats and
Development

• Estuaries
• Estuaries are extremely important to
• New England coastal zones.

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Negative Impacts on Coastal Habitats and
Development

• Estuaries are breeding grounds for
• approximately 50 of ocean fish, including
• Shrimp
• Menhaden
• Sea trout
• Croker
• Red drum
• Flounder

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Negative Impacts on Coastal Habitats and
Development

• Estuaries
• - Warming temperatures and changing salinity of
  estuaries make them inhospitable to current
  inhabitants with narrow temperature tolerances.
• - Other estuarine species, like oysters, are put
  at risk by increased salinity from rising seas
  and drought.

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Negative Impacts on Water Quality

• Water quality is declining due to
• Warmer seas
• Industrialization
• Pollution/Poor waste management
• Erosion
• Increased precipitation

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Negative Impacts on Water Quality

• Warmer seas allow for a faster spread of
  pathogens and an increase in harmful algal blooms
• Poorly treated waste and run-offs pollute rivers
  and estuaries
• Erosion releases toxins into coastal areas
• Increased precipitation results in nutrient
  overloading and eutrophication.

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Negative Impacts on Fisheries

• Temperature rises may result in negative impacts
  on fisheries

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Negative Impacts on Fisheries

• Changes in sea temperature may cause fish with
  narrow temperature toleration to migrate out of
  the region.
• Warming may prevent the return of vulnerable
  species, such as cod.
• Declining water quality may increase the number
  of fish die-offs.
• Warming oceans may increase acidity of oceans
  which will have adverse affects on shelled
  species and shellfish fisheries

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Negative Impacts on Biodiversity

• Climate change is putting marine biodiversity at
  risk.
• A decline in water quality, increase in erosion,
  and rise in temperature may cause many marine
  species to die out of the New England region.

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Negative Impacts on Biodiversity

• Fish are not the only species at risk..
• Shorebirds and seabirds are at risk as feeding
  areas disappear
• Sea turtle species become more vulnerable as they
  are exposed to increases in pollution, disease,
  and loss of nesting beaches
• The Northern Right Whale is threatened by
  extinction because of its inability to adapt to
  sudden environmental shifts

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Impacts on Industries

• Fisheries will be effected by the loss of marine
  species
• Tourism, which accounts for over 6 billion in
  New England economy annually, will be affected by
  coastal erosion, loss of beaches, damage to
  shoreline properties, etc..
• Whale watching industry may be threatened by the
  possible loss of the Northern Right Whale
• Aquaculture may suffer from an increase in algal
  blooms and disease

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What can we do?

• Slow global warming by reducing greenhouse gases
• 2) Decrease pollution entering rivers and
  estuaries
• 3) Build our capacity to cope and adapt

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Reducing greenhouse gasesGeneral Options

• Reduce fossil fuel use
• Improve waste management
• Capture more carbon in plant biomass

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Adapting to climate change

• By changing methods, techniques, varieties, we
  can learn to live with our new climate
• Who adapts?
• Autonomous adaptation (private action)
• Planned adaptation (public action)
• How do they adapt?
• Reactive adaptation
• Anticipatory adaptation

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Four General Adaptation Strategies

• Bear the losses
• Baseline response of doing nothing.

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Four General Adaptation Strategies
2. Share the losses Many different systems from
community based mechanism to taxation and
federally funded relief and rehabilitation.
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Four General Adaptation Strategies
3. Modify the threat by minimizing other stresses
to ecosystems
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Four General Adaptation Strategies
4. Continue to learn more about how to prepare
for future changes in the environment
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Adapting to climate change Options for NE marine

• Bear losses?
• Share losses?
• Modify the threat?
• Learn more to help prevent or reduce
• current and future impacts?

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Conclusions

• Mounting scientific evidence that global warming
  is already occurring
• Temperature changes evident in New England
• New Englands marine sector is particularly
  vulnerable to climate change
• Variety of marine strategies exist for adapting
  to climate change

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Where can you learn more?

• About global warming
• www.cleanair-coolplanet.org
• About adaptation and mitigation
• www.cornell.edu/horticulture
• www.tellus.org
• About renewable energy www.doe.gov/nrel

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Preparing for a Changing Climate

• A joint presentation of
• Clean Air Cool Planet
• The Tellus Institute
• Cornell University Department of Horticulture
• University of Vermont Extension
• Partial funding for this presentation made
  possible
• by a grant from
• The Hunt Foundation