Campaigns, Elections & Voting

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Campaigns, ElectionsVoting
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Overview

• Voting
• Campaigns
• Traditional vs. Professional
• Finance

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Overview

• Voter turnout data - the trends
• To vote or not to vote?

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Voter Turnout

• Is voting important in democratic politics?
• Why?

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Voter Turnout

• 2008 Presidential Primary Election data, Hudson
  County Board of Election
• 2008 School Board election data, Hudson County
  Board of Election
• 2004 Presidential Election data, Hudson County
  Board of Election
• Voter Turnout Data, US Bureau of the Census

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Voter Turnout

• Voter Turnout Data, US Elections Project
  corrected for ineligible voters

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Voter Turnout

• However we measure turnout, the US numbers are
  significantly lower than those of most other
  democratic countries
• Is this a problem? Should we care? How
  significant is voting in democratic politics?

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Voter Turnout

• If we examine data over time, we find that US
  voter turnout in presidential elections increased
  fairly steadily from 1924 to 1940, dropped during
  WW2, and returned to prewar levels in the 1950s
• Turnout held relatively steady from 1952 to 1968,
  when we began to see a slow steady decline
  (except for 1992 and 2004)

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Voter Turnout

• Participation in US politics has increased over
  the years
• Eligibility requirements have changed
• religious tests (by early 19th Century)
• property requirements (by early 19th Century)
• race (1870 15th Amendment)
• sex (1920 19th Amendment)
• age (1971 26th Amendment)

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Voter Turnout

• Measuring voter turnout
• Registered Voters
• Voting Age Population
• Voter Eligible Population

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Voter Turnout

• Variables influencing voter turnout
• Registration requirements
• Response Motor/Voter Law, Instant
  Registration
• Election Day in midweek
• Most countries have election day on non-work day,
  either a weekend or a holiday

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Voter Turnout

• Variables influencing voter turnout
• Type of Election
• General elections higher than primary elections
• Presidential election higher than midterm
  elections
• Midterm elections higher than off year
  elections
• State elections higher than local elections
• Political elections higher than school board
  and other elections
• Competitiveness of the election

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Voter Turnout

• Variables influencing voter turnout
• Impact on negative campaigning
• Voters become disenchanted with process as a
  result of the negative ads
• Demographic variables
• some demographic groups have lower turnout than
  others

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Voter Turnout

• Race
• Minorities (black and Hispanic in particular)
  vote have lower voter turnouts than whites
• Income
• Poor people have lower voter turnouts than
  wealthier individuals
• Age
• 18 to 24 year olds have lowest voter turnout of
  any age demographic

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Black Turnout
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Youth Voter Turnout
http//www.civicyouth.org/PopUps/FactSheets/FS-Mid
term06.pdf
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Paticipation in Elections

• Beyond voting, other pathways to participate
• Stay informed
• pay attention to variety of news sources
• Attend meetings/rallies/events
• Advertise for candidate/party/idea
• buttons, signs, decals, stickers, etc.
• Contribute to campaign

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Campaigns

• Traditional vs. Professional Campaigns
• More expertise
• media consultants
• pollsters
• strategists
• communications directors
• fundraisers
• More expensive

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Campaigns

• Better financed campaigns generally have a better
  chance of success
• They can hire better talent
• They can buy advertising to rebut or make charges
• They can extend the campaign longer and respond
  to changes in the election atmosphere
• Efforts to curtail influence of money in
  campaigns began in earnest with post-Watergate
  reforms

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Campaigns

• 1974 Federal Election Campaign Act
• Public financing of presidential elections
• Limits on spending if accept public finance
• Created Federal Election Commission
• Required candidates and donors to report
  donations to the FEC, with caps now on donations
• Required candidates and donors to establish
  Political Action Committees (PACs) to handle
  money end of the campaigns
• Limited amount of personal wealth candidates
  could spend

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Campaigns

• Buckley vs. Valeo (1976)
• restrictions on personal spending violate the
  First Amendment
• caps on contributions, however, do not
• federal finance of campaign do not, as long as it
  is voluntary (that is, candidates can opt to
  accept the money -- and the limits -- or not)

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Campaigns

• Loopholes within the FECA
• No limits on donations to party (soft money)
• No limits on party spending for get out the
  vote drives (soft money)
• No limits on number of political action
  committees
• bundling

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Campaigns

• 2002 Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA)
• Closed soft money loophole
• Raised the limits on PAC contributions and other
  donations
• Bans group sponsored ads 30 days prior to a
  primary and 60 days prior to general election

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Campaigns

• Loopholes
• PACs can raise unlimited amounts of money
• 527 Organizations -- nonprofit issue advocacy
  groups

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Elections

• Types of Elections
• National and State Level
• Primary
• General
• State Only
• Initiative Citizen initiated legislation
• Referendum Voters asked to approve legislation
• Recall Voters asked to retain/remove official
  from office
• Ratification Voters asked to approve
  constitutional changes

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Voting Paradox

• Recall, democratic theory predicated on the idea
  that somehow the vote reveals the will of the
  people
• That means we need to be able to move from
  individual preferences to something like a
  social preference
• The winner of the election is in some meaningful
  sense reflective of what the people want

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Voting Paradox

• Yet as we examine the various voting systems put
  forth in the world we need to keep in mind some
  conceptual problems with voting theory
• It may not be possible to move from individual to
  group preferences smoothly or meaningfully

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Voting Systems

• Plurality (one person, one vote, most votes win)
• Majority (one person, one vote, winner needs a
  majority of votes cast
• Ranked (voters rank their candidate preferences
• Non ranked (voters simply express a preference in
  a vote)

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Ranked Systems

• Majority Preferential (Sequential Elimination)
• Winning candidate needs to have a majority of
  votes
• Voters rank candidates from most preferred to
  least preferred
• Count everybodys first place votes, if no
  candidate has a majority, eliminate the lowest
  vote-getter and transfer votes to next candidate
  on each voters preference list

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Ranked Systems

• Borda Count
• Voters rank candidates, most preferred to least
  preferred
• Point values are assigned for each position
• Add the point values for each candidate and
  candidate with most points wins

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Number of Delegates
18 12 10 9 4 2

First Choice
Second Choice
Third Choice
Fourth Choice
FifthChoice
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Other Systems

• Approval Voting
• Voters receive x number of votes, corresponding
  to the number of candidates in the election
• e.g., if 3 candidates, voters get 3 votes
• Voters allocate those votes however they want
  among the candidates
• Winning candidate is the one with the most votes

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Other Systems

• Negative Voting
• Voters receive one vote, but that vote can be
  either a vote for () or a vote against (-) a
  candidate
• Voters cast a single ballot ( or - )
• Winning candidate is the one with the most votes

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Other Systems

• Weighted Voting
• Voters receive extra votes based on some
  predetermined relevant criteria
• Voters cast a single ballot with all their votes
  to a single candidate
• Winning candidate is the one with the most votes

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Methods of Voting

• Secret vs. Public Ballot
• Australian or secret ballot introduced in U.S. in
  the 1880s
• Prior to that, ballots were colored coded by
  party
• Voters asked for the ballot of a particular party

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Methods of Voting

• Ballot Design and Voting

2000 ballot in West Palm Beach, Florida
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Methods of Voting

• Elections are the responsibility of state, rather
  than the federal government
• States then give that power to counties to
  determine election protocol
• voter registration
• polling places
• ballot design
• voting method

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Methods of Voting
2004 Ballot in Cuyahoga County, Ohio