Niigata Earthquake, Japan, 1970 : When Soils Liquefied, Houses Tilted

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Niigata Earthquake, Japan, 1970 When Soils
Liquefied, Houses Tilted
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Tectonic Setting Hazards
Hawaii
Volcanic arcs and oceanic trenches partly
encircling the Pacific Basin form the so-called
Ring of Fire, a zone of frequent earthquakes and
volcanic eruptions. The trenches are shown in
blue-green. The volcanic island arcs, although
not labelled, are parallel to, and always
landward of, the trenches. For example, the
island arc associated with the Aleutian Trench is
represented by the long chain of volcanoes that
make up the Aleutian Islands.
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GREEN No eruption anticipated. Volcano is in quiet, dormant state.
YELLOW An eruption is possible in the next few weeks and may occur with little or no additional warning. Small earthquakes detected locally and (or) increased levels of volcanic gas emissions.
ORANGE Explosive eruption is possible within a few days and may occur with little or no warning. Ash plume(s) not expected to reach 25,000 feet above sea level. Increased numbers of local earthquakes. Extrusion of a lava dome or lava flows (non-explosive eruption) may be occurring.
RED Major explosive eruption expected within 24 hours. Large ash plume(s) expected to reach at least 25,000 feet above sea level. Strong earthquake activity detected even at distant monitoring stations. Explosive eruption may be in progress.
LEVEL OF CONCERN COLOR CODE Generic
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Most of the world's great earthquakes and
tsunamis initiate in the zone of underthrusting
or seismogenic zone of subduction zones. Types
of earthquakes There are many different types of
earthquakes tectonic, volcanic, and explosion.
The type of earthquake depends on the region
where it occurs and the geological make-up of
that region. The most common are tectonic
earthquakes. These occur when rocks in the
earth's crust break due to geological forces
created by movement of tectonic plates. Another
type,volcanic earthquakes, occur in conjunction
with volcanic activity. Collapse earthquakes are
small earthquakes in underground caverns and
mines, and explosion earthquakes result from the
explosion of nuclear and chemical devices. We can
measure motion from large tectonic earthquakes
using GPS because rocks on either side of a fault
are offset during this type of earthquake.
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Reef
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Earthquakes and Human Environment The threat
posed to people and property in a given location
is based on 1. distance from the earthquake
epicenter and 2. stability of the soil in the
area. Although the soil conditions in
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Earthquake Hazards Shaking Liquefaction Faulti
ng, Land Subsidence Landslides Tsunami Volcani
Hazards Lava flows, lava floods Shaking
Lahars Land Subsidence Landslides Tsunami
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• What is Risk ?
• the Potential for incurring Future Losses, Near
  future, Distant future
• (Note Element of Uncertainty)
• the Probability (chance per unit time)
• to incur a Loss of some Magnitude
• A Rational Concept beyond Acts of God
• Geologic Hazards have long time span

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Effects of Natural Disasters The Human Impact
Immediate Personal Effects Death, Injuries,
Health Threat Loss of Possessions, Shelter,
Food, Water, Heat Disrupted Families, Missing
Persons, Shock, Grief, TraumaPublic Effects /
Disruptions Rule by Emergency Law (may restrict
Individuals Rights , Curfews) Public Needs
override Individual/Private Needs
Strict Enforcement of Law and Order
(Looting) Threat to Public Health, Environment
and
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Effects of Natural Disasters The Human Impact
Ecology Loss of Government Services Failure of
Infrastructures / Utility Services (e.g.
Transportation, .)Private Sector / Economic
Repercussions Loss of Production and Service
Facilities Loss of Income Environmental /
Ecological / Agricultural Effects Incurrence of
Debt (Long-term) Sometimes Economic Boom ,
Massive Construction fed by Relief
Aid Emergency response system is the first line
facing a disaster.
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Basic Principle of Diaster Risk Management and
Mitigation PlanningNatural Disasters occur at
the Intersection of People with Natures Extreme
Events. Risk Sum (Hazard x Assets x
Fragility). Disaster / Emergency Preparedness
Requires a strong Constitutional / Legal /
Institutional Basis. Political Will Power and
Fiscal Resources. PEPPER Pre-Event Preparedness
/ Post Event Response. Mitigation especially
requires Long-Range Planning, Political Will
Power, and Persevirence. Pressure of Short- vs.
Longterm Objectives.Vulnerability Difference
between Risk and Societal Vulnerability. On a
Global Scale, Vulnerability is tied to Poverty
limited Access to Resources and Good Government.
But highly developed Metro Areas (e.g. NYC or
Tokyo, and their Infrastructure) are also exposed
to Low-Probability / High-Consequence Risks, e.g.
to Storm Surges / Sea Level Rise, and
Earthquakes.Risk Management Constitutional,
Legal Organizational/Institutional Issues.
Mitigation is Tied to Development / Capacity
Building/ Infrastructure. In Developing Countries
Development Banks have a Major Role to Play, but
they often fail in this task. Lesser role of NGOs
UN. On a Global Scale, there is great
Uncertainty about the Human Ability to Harness
the Global Risks from Natural Disasters, given
the Global Population / Demographic / Economic
Trends.
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Earthquake survivors in Bam, Iran continue to
suffer psychological trauma from their ordeal in
December 2003, with health officials noting that
rehabilitation may take quite some time. The
earthquake hit the southeastern Iranian city in
the province of Kerman, on 26 December, killing
at least 40,000 people and leaving more than
100,000 homeless .
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Hingrai earthquake At least 24,000people were
affected when two earthquakes, measuring 5.7 and
5.5 on the Richter scale, hit Pakistan on
February 14, 2003. Another house, with its walls
threatening to collapse, shored up by wooden
planks, Hingrai, Balakot, NWFP, Pakistan.
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Risk management aims to reduce risk through
manipulation of the risk equation. Mitigation
takes place before the event by updating building
codes, halting construction in hazardous areas,
retrofitting existing building stock, enacting
and enforcing building codes for new properties,
and relocation of residents to less hazardous
areas. Response to a disaster is made effective
if emergency facilities are accessible and
functional and the public is aware and educated.
Rebuilding after an event should expand upon
these principles
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Development Agencies and Private Sector Financial
Institutions Play an Important Role (from a
manual issued by the Inter-American Development
Bank)
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(source IDB)
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ICS Incident Command System is the model tool
for command, control,
coordination of a disaster / incident
response. It provides the means to coordinate the
efforts of individual agencies (local, state,
federal) with specialized capabilities as they
work toward the common goal of stabilizing the
incident and protecting life, property, and the
environment. During major emergencies it is
common that no single agency or department can
handle the emergency situation alone. All
agencies must work together to manage it.To
coordinate the effective use of all available
resources, agencies need a formalized management
structure that lends consistency, fosters
efficiency, and provides direction during a
response.
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Standard fare in geology textbooks and school
classrooms across the world is that the hot
springs, geysers and volcanoes of Yellowstone
National Park, Hawaii, Iceland, and many other
volcanic regions were created by plumes of hot
rock that rise from near the Earths core. New
results from recently published U.S. Geological
Survey research hint, astonishingly, that such
plumes may not exist at all." Results from
seismic tomography, a method that uses earthquake
waves to CAT scan the Earths secretive
goings-on, suggest that the magma system beneath
Yellowstone is only skin deep shallower than
120 miles, far less than the 1,750 miles
scientists would expect if the magma arose from
near the Earths molten core as has been thought
for decades. Similar trails elsewhere also have
been attributed to mantle plumes. In particular,
noted Christiansen, the spectacular chain of
volcanic islands that stretches from the Big
Island of Hawaii, northwest along the Hawaiian
island chain, is commonly considered compelling
evidence for a plume and is the textbook
example of how mantle plumes work to create
volcanic islands and other geologic features
above the Earths surface. If Yellowstone can
leave a volcano trail without a plume, then other
hotspots might also, Christiansen said. The
implication is that Hawaii may not be underlain
by a plume after all. A group of U.S.
universities is conducting a major seismic
experiment there in the fall of 2003 that may
settle the question for once and all.
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Load Paths Should be Continuous. Discontinuities
and Asymmetries Should be Avoided
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• What are Quantifiable Elements of Risk ?
• Hazard Distribution of (Natural) Events in
  Time, Space, and by Magnitude. Examples Expected
  Flood Height reached along a River During
  Different Exposure Times (100-year or 500-year
  Flood). Expected Shaking Level Reached at a given
  Site due to Earthquakes (e.g. US Seismic Hazard
  Maps).
• Assets Lives, Possessions, Means of
  Production, Built Structures and Infrastructures
  Social Structures Cultural Values. Some Assets
  are measurable in , others are not.
• Fragility A measure of fractional loss of the
  valued asset, given the hazard. Typically a
  number between 0 and 1. Zero means total loss for
  the given hazard level, 1 means there was no
  damage at all.
• ------ So what is Vulnerability? A less readily
  quantifiable, more complex, and socially more
  comprehensive term than any of the above terms
  can express, individually or in any combination.
  It describes the social conditioning that allows
  extreme natural events to become disasters.

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• How can a Community Manage Risk
• Risk SUM (Hazard x Asset x Fragility)
• 1. One can try to minimize Risk, i.e. minimize
  the Sum over the products of these three factors.
  Options are
• reduce the hazard by engineering (e.g. dykes,
  levees) (Note dangerous when ultimate event
  strikes)
• do not locate fragile, expensive assets on
  hazardous sites i.e. leave hazardous sites less
  developed (land use planning and zoning)
• reduce fragility by building hazard-resilient
  structures - (construction codes and their
  enforcement)

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Risk Management Reduce Risk Exposure
Risk ? (Hazard x Assets x Fragility)
Avoid Placing high Assets into the most Hazardous
Zones. Urban Planning, Landuse, Zoning,
Regulations Codes. Evaluate Hazard at the
Appropriate Probability Level. Tails of
Probability Distributions -gt Extreme
Catastrophes. Reduce Fragility, Increase
Toughness Redundancy,
Retrofit. Emergency Response Planning
Preparedness Minimize Post-Event Losses,
Post-Event Recovery / Reconstruction
Opportunity for including Mitigation. Risk
DistributionInsurance, Assistance Mutual
Support Networks National/International
Public/Private Aid
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2. By distributing (catastrophic) Risk to others
via insurance or other financial or bartering
arrangements.
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• Simplest Form of RISK Definition in Engineering
• Risk Sum ( Hazard x Assets x Fragility)
• Hazard For a Point on Earth Hazard Curve
  Annual Exceedance Probability vs. Hazard
  Variable e.g. for Earthquakes Peak Ground
  Acceleration - PGA (g) used by Engineers in
  Context of Building Code, Design of Nukes etc..
• At Given Annual Exceedance Probability
• 1. PGA Can be Mapped.
• 2. Can Be Deaggregated
• Assets Lives, Built Assets, Cultural Assets
  ()
• Fragility Variable from 0 (no loss) to 1 (total
  loss) for each type of structure and for each
  hazard value often poorly known.
• Risk () Risk Curves, Annualized Losses,
  Probable Maximum Losses, Scenario Event Losses

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Risk Management Reduce Risk Exposure
Risk ? (Hazard x Assets x Fragility)
Avoid Placing high Assets into the most Hazardous
Zones. Urban Planning, Landuse, Zoning,
Regulations Codes. Evaluate Hazard at the
Appropriate Probability Level. Tails of
Probability Distributions -gt Extreme
Catastrophes. Reduce Fragility, Increase
Toughness Redundancy,
Retrofit. Emergency Response Planning
Preparedness Minimize Post-Event Losses,
Post-Event Recovery / Reconstruction
Opportunity for including Mitigation. Risk
DistributionInsurance, Assistance Mutual
Support Networks National/International
Public/Private Aid
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GENERALIZED CONCLUSIONS FOR GLOBAL
MEGACITIES 1. Urbanization Increases Risk on
a Global Scale. 2. Hazard is
probabilistically quantifiable on a global scale
with current data. Microzonation of
hazard requires detailed local
geotechnical data for equ., and topography for
storm surges. 3. Risk/Loss Modeling is well
developed but needs full inventory of
built assets and their fragilities. Ok for NY,
but on a global scale, population and per
capita income may have to suffice
initially as a proxy for full asset inventory.
4. Vulnerability is a complex quantity, strongly
tied to lack of redundancy in developing
countries tied to poverty, income-
inequities, and the exclusion of large sectors of
civil society from the political process.
Hard to quantify even just for a single
hazard. While there may be common causes for
vulnerability to different hazards,
vulnerability has hazard- specific
aspects. 5. Risk Management Pre-Event
Preparedness Mitigation are as important
as Post-Event Recovery. Remaining Risk can be
Distributed via Insurance. RM Requires strong
Institutions and Resources not readily
available in developing countries. This is
a major development issue of global scale.
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Constitutional - Legal Political Framework of
Disaster / Emergency Management (EM) Different
Nations have Different Systems. Generally they
reflect the Political System of the Country.
Pluralistic Representative Democracies (checks
balances) Civil Organizations Tend to
Dominate. EM Professionals. EM can be
either Centralized - or Federalized. Legal
Framework for Cooperation between Federal, State
and Local Organizations. Bottom
Up? Semi-Democracies, Oligarchies
Dictatorships Military Organizations Tend
to Dominate. Patronage Jobs. EM Typically
Centralized, or Weak to Non-Existent (ad hoc).
Legal Framework from Strong to Murky. Top
down. Note Over-simplifications, Exceptions
Shades of Grey abound !!
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Constitutional, Legal Organizational Issues In
the US Public Safety is Primarily State
Responsibility. Principle of Local over External
Responsibility Securing of Progressively Outward
Radiating Assistance if Needed. Emergency
Management Offices (EMOs) exist at different
Levels Towns, Counties, State. Federal Role in
Disaster Response is Regulated by Stafford Act
www.fema.gov/library/stafact.htm. The Stafford
Act regulates the following Basic Federal
Functions 1. US Disaster Preparedness
Assistance to States 2. Major Disaster
Emergency Assistance Administration 3. Major
Disaster Assistance Programs 4. Emergency
Assistance Programs 5. Emergency
Preparedness 6. Miscellaneaous (Islands ,
..). A State Governor must ask the US
President to declare a Federal Disaster before
feds via FEMA can get into picture. President /
FEMA can call upon all other federal agencies to
pitch in for pre-designated or special tasks
National Guard (dual state federal role), US
Army Corps of Engineers, CDC, EPA, ...
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Contin. US - ICS Organizational Participation
during an Incident Typical Roster of
Organizations (in the US) During Major
Emergencies their Representatives Assemble at an
Incident Command Post (ICP), while their
Operational Teams work in the Field (use examples
from 9/11 WTC ground zero operations)
EMOs (e.g. Mayors EMO, NYSEMO, FEMA, )
9/11 NYC OEM lost its ICP Police, Fire,
Ambulance Services, EPA/DEPs, Health Services
(CDC, State, Local, Private, Red Cross)
Utilities Electric, Gas, Water, Sewer, Sanit.,
Communication Transportation DoTs, HWD,
Commuter Serv., MTAs, Airprts., FAA Knowledge
and Information Agencies NOAA, NWS, USGS, ..
Social Services NGOs American Red Cross
(Congr. Mandate), Schools, Religious
Organiz., Salvation Army, Mennonite, Caritas,
Media Radio, TV, Cable, Printed Media - in
separate briefing room Technical Organiz.
DDC, Army Corps of Engineers, DOE, EPA, Forest
Service (Forest Fire Fighters, . ) Public
Safety Police, FBI, Coast Guard, .. Powers
of Last Resort National Guard, Armed Forces,
in the US Help from outside the US ????
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Contin. US - ICS Organizational Participation
during an Incident Typical Roster of
Organizations (in the US) During Major
Emergencies their Representatives Assemble at an
Incident Command Post (ICP), while their
Operational Teams work in the Field (use examples
from 9/11 WTC ground zero operations)
EMOs (e.g. Mayors EMO, NYSEMO, FEMA, )
9/11 NYC OEM lost its ICP Police, Fire,
Ambulance Services, EPA/DEPs, Health Services
(CDC, State, Local, Private, Red Cross)
Utilities Electric, Gas, Water, Sewer, Sanit.,
Communication Transportation DoTs, HWD,
Commuter Serv., MTAs, Airprts., FAA Knowledge
and Information Agencies NOAA, NWS, USGS, ..
Social Services NGOs American Red Cross
(Congr. Mandate), Schools, Religious
Organiz., Salvation Army, Mennonite, Caritas,
Media Radio, TV, Cable, Printed Media - in
separate briefing room Technical Organiz.
DDC, Army Corps of Engineers, DOE, EPA, Forest
Service (Forest Fire Fighters, . ) Public
Safety Police, FBI, Coast Guard, .. Powers
of Last Resort National Guard, Armed Forces,
in the US Help from outside the US ????
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International Issues (2)Organizations Involved
(1) United Nations and AffiliatesUNDP, e.g.
Emergency Response Division http//www.undp.org/
erd/OCHA - Off. for Coordination of Humanitarian
Affairs Disaster Response Branch
http//www.reliefweb.int/ocha_ol/index.html I
ntegrated Regional Information Networks http//
www.reliefweb.int/IRIN/index.phtml HCfR - UN
High Commissioner for Refugees http//www.unh
cr.ch/UNEP http//www.unep.org/ UN ISDR -
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
http//www.unisdr.org/UNICEF
http//www.unicef.org/WFP - World Food Program
http//www.wfp.org/index.htmWHO
http//www.who.int/ PAHO http//www.paho.or
g/
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International Issues (3)Organizations Involved
(2) Semi-GOs and NGOsIFRC - International
Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent
Societies http//www.ifrc.org/OXFAM, CARITAS,
. NGOs both religious and secular.Development
Banks WB Worldbank http//www.worldbank.org/ I
MF http//www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/confli
ct.htm ADB Asian DB http//www.adb.org/ AFDB
African DB http//www.afdb.org/ IDB
InterAmerican http//www.iadb.org/ (see PDF
s97is.dll)ECHO European Commission Humanitarian
Aid Office http//europa.eu.int/comm/echo/in
dex_en.htmlUSAID / OFDA http//www.usaid.gov/h
um_response/ofda/Useful Web-Links
http//www.cred.be/centre/links.htm
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Temperature rises hint at earthquake prediction
Semiconductor action and and Heat
Spike temperature rises appear to precede
tremors. The idea could also explain the weird
pre-quake behavior of weather, radio
transmissions, animals and even
people. Earthquakes begin several kilometres
below the surface and electromagnetic waves
cannot travel far through dense rocks. But, in
2000, Freund showed that compressing a rock can
lead to positive charges inside. These can form a
charged region of rock that migrates to the
surface at the rate of about 100 to 300 metres
per second, where it can ionise the air -
possibly explaining strange pre-quake phenomena
sometimes reported. A positive charge near the
surface would draw negatively charged atmospheric
particles closer to the Earth and Freund and
Ouzounov think the combining of the charged
particles releases infrared radiation. They
believe they can detect this IR signal via
weather satellites about two to five days before
a quake happens.
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frequent", releases of earth energy building up
in the conflicting plates does prevent an
earthquake that would release suddenly a much
more concentrated burst of energy. but even that
is subject to question. since a series of smaller
earthquakes could be just a pre-cursor to an
unstoppable much larger one -where the plate
movement is at a much faster speed than normal,
and the smaller advance earthquakes just not able
to keep up releasing enough energy, until that
cycle ends with a huge earthquake.