Caribbean Tsunami Threat to Loss of Life is Enormous

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TSUNAMI El Peligro Olvidado ! The Forgotten
Danger !
Assessing Risk-to-Life from Tsunamis in the
Caribbean An informed prepared country is a
necessity for successful tourism...eg Indian
Ocean Tsunami, Dec. 26, 2004 Haitian Earthquake,
Jan. 12, 2010 UNESCO IOC, CZCP and CariCOOS
initiative Sponsored by US IOOS Third
Regional Workshop of GEO for the Caribbean States
March 9, 2011, San Juan, Puerto Rico Bill
Proenza, Regional Director, National Weather
Service, Southern U.S.
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Despite Infrequency, 168 Years of Deadly
Caribbean Tsunamis
Fatalities 1842
Haiti 300 1853 Venezuela
600 1867 Virgin Islands (U.S.)
23 1882 Panama
75 1906 Jamaica 500 1918
Puerto Rico 140 1946 Dominican
Republic(1) 1790 1946 Dominican Republic(2)
75 2010 Haiti 7
TOTAL 3510
Ref Caribbean Tsunamis,  A 500-Year History from
1498-1998 by Karen Fay O'Loughlin and James F.
Lander (2003 ISBN 1-4020-1717-0) Tsunamis of
the Eastern US, NGDC, 2002 Science of Tsunami
Hazards, vol 20, 3, pg 120 PRSN on Haiti,2010
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The Caribbean has many tsunami-genic sources,
most of them short-fused (nearby)

• Earthquakes (tectonic subduction zones numerous
  faults)
• Landslides (continental shelves, PR trench,
  coastal slides
• Volcanoes
• (submarine land)
• Tele-tsunamis (e.g. Lisbon Nov. 1, 1755)

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The Caribbean Situation !

• Last major deadly tsunami(s) was in 1946, at
  the Dominican Republic 1865 deaths.
• Since 1946, tremendous post WW-II coastal
  population growth has occurred across the
  Caribbean along with explosive tourism .
• Therefore, if we use Caribbeans historical
  tsunami deaths, it will greatly understate the
  current 21st century potential loss of life!
• So, how do we assess our current potential loss
  of life from tsunamis?

Statistics from Caribbean Tsunamis,  A 500-Year
History from 1498-1998 by Karen Fay O'Loughlin
and James F. Lander (ISBN 1-4020-1717-0 2003
edition)
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Assessing Risk to Life
Risk (potential loss of life) Hazard
Frequency x Amount of Exposure x Mortality Rate
() R HF x AE x MR
Source J. Nott (2006) Extreme Events
Physical Reconstruction and Risk Assessment,
Cambridge University Press.
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Applied to Caribbean tsunamis Hazard
Frequency historical rate Exposure current
number of beach dwellers in harms
wayMortality Rate percent death rate
HAZARD FREQUENCY (history based)
EXPOSURE (people at the beach)
TODAYs RISK TO LIFE
MORTALITY (2-meter fatality ratea
percent)
Source J. Nott (2006) Extreme Events
Physical Reconstruction and Risk Assessment,
Cambridge University Press.
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Todays risk to beach life from a 2-meter tsunami
Caribbean beaches have a potential loss of life
exposure 40 times greater per century. (K a
thousand e.g. 100K means 100,000 people)
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Todays risk to beach life from a 2-meter tsunami
Both have a very high potential loss of life
exposure. (K a thousand e.g. 50K means 50,000
people)
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Other sources of data and footnotes.

• 1 NOAA Sea Surface Temperatures.
• 2 - NOAA National Geophysical Data Center.
• 3 - Landers, Lockridge, Whiteside, OLoughlin.
• 4 Potential loss of life exposures values are
  estimates from the World Tourism Organization,
  Tourism Market Trends, 2006 Edition and tourism
  numbers from state government or tourism sources
  from Alaska, Hawaii etc.

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So, how do tsunami deaths since 1842 in the
Caribbean (PR, USVI Neighbor Nations) compare
historically with the northeastern corner of the
Pacific Rim (Alaska, Hawaii, the West Coast
Canada U.S.) ?The Caribbean with only 1/6 the
area had six (6) times the deaths !
1842-2010 3510 deaths
1842-2010 579 deaths
http//www.srh.noaa.gov
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A Historical Summary

• Comparing 168 years of reasonable data
• an area only 1/6 the size of our northeastern
  Pacific rim (Alaska, Hawaii, west coasts of
  Canada US)
• the Caribbean has produced 6 times more tsunami
  deaths !
• Today, the Caribbean Basin has a much greater
  population of coast/beach residents and tourists
  at risk to nearby short-fused, tsunami-genic
  sources !

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The risk to life from tsunamis has increased
dramatically with coastal population increases
and tourism growth. Here we see the port at
Charlotte Amalie Bay, St. Thomas
20 Foot tsunami, November 17, 1867
Same bay in St. Thomas today with the lives of
25,000 tourists residents at risk !
30 people lost their lives on November 18, 1867
in a 20 ft tsunami. Today there can upwards of
15,000 to 25,000 people at risk because of cruise
ships. Almost all these people are in the
tsunami inundation zone around the bay, docks,
beaches and shops.
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October 11, 1918, a Mona Passage earthquake
caused a 5 - 20 foot tsunami in western PR
killing about 140
R-F Intensity Scale
Modified after Reid and Taber, 1919
2010 Risk to Life30,000 around Mayagüez
vicinity
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Some Sobering Conclusions

• The Indian Ocean and Caribbean have much
  in common
• Attractive climate and year-round warm waters
• Large beach/coastal tourism (still growing)
• Relatively flat beach/coastal topography
• Infrequency... NOAA Geophysical Data Center says
  our Caribbean Basin has had 8 of the worlds
  tsunami events and the Indian Ocean, 7.
• such similar infrequency did not protect
  Indian Ocean nations from their horrific tsunami
  loss of life (12/26/04) estimated around 250
  thousand people !

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Caribbean Tsunami Warning Services Now and
Future

• Interim Caribbean Tsunami alerts info. comes
  from Alaska and Pacific Tsunami Warning Centers
• A Caribbean Tsunami Warning Center (CTWC)
  co-located at the world-renown Puerto Rico
  Seismic Network maximizes regional expertise and
  cultural insight to warning lead-times
  preparedness
• UNESCO Caribbean member nations (and U.S. State
  Department) endorse the US phased-in CTWC
  implementation at Mayaguez
• The National Weather Service appointed a
  Caribbean Tsunami Warning Program Manager at
  Mayaguez in February, 2010.

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A tsunami-ready community welcomes your
visitors ! Bill Proenza, Regional
Director National Weather Service, Southern
U.S.A. bill.proenza_at_noaa.gov Office
817-978-1000