Managing unavoidable Climate Change – a risky business?

1
Managing unavoidable Climate Change a risky
business?

• Presentation by
• Beverley Draig
• Sustainability Policy Coordinator
• Eastleigh Borough Council

2
Todays forecast

• Why managing the effects of climate and weather
  are important to the member organisations of
  Eastleigh Strategic Partnership
• Future local climate change
• Short question and answer session and discussion
  on next steps

3
Climate Weather

• Weather is whats happening outside right now.
• It affects the way
• we run our business activities
• our services to our communities
• our own lifestyles and well being and
• the quality of life of our communities

4
Climate and Weather

• Climate is the average weather in a particular
  location over a 30 year period.
• The climate all over the world is undoubtedly
  changing. It will continue to change over the
  next 30-40 years because of
• greenhouse gases, like CO2, in the atmosphere now
  
• pollution and
• natural phenomena such as volcanoes and solar
  cycles

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How has adverse weather affected Eastleigh
already?

• We dont know!
• The costs and effects of past weather events to
  Eastleigh Borough Council appear not to have been
  quantified adequately.
• Many other Councils have the same problem
  illustrated by recent exercise jointly carried
  out by Hampshire authorities Local Climate
  Impact profile (LCLIP)
• Does your organisation know how much adverse
  weather has cost you?

6
Local Area Agreement Targets on Adapting to
Climate Change

• Hampshire Local Area Agreement 2008 2011
• Working groups on Climate Change HIOWSCN and NI
  188 Working Group
• NI 188 Planning to adapt to climate change
• Level 1 March 2009 Public commitment by councils
  prioritised risk-based assessment
• Level 2 March 2010 Comprehensive risk-based
  assessment prioritised action in some areas, to
  include working with Local Strategic Partners on
  their own risk assessments
• Level 3 March 2011 Comprehensive action plan
  prioritised action in all priority areas

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Hampshire Headlines

• Winter of 2000/01, rainfall of over 150 of the
  seasonal average
• Impacts river flooding, groundwater flooding,
  damage to property and landslides
• Summer of 2003, temperatures of 2.2C above
  seasonal average
• Impacts deaths from heat, drought
• Autumn of 2006, temperatures of 2.6C above
  seasonal average
• Impacts severe storms, tornadoes, intense
  rainfall, damage to property

Met Office 1971 2000 averages
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Climate Projections for Hampshire - Temperature

• 2080s, Medium emissions scenario, central
  estimate
• Increase in winter mean temperature is 3ºC very
  unlikely to be less than 1.6ºC or more than 4.7ºC
  
• Increase in summer mean temperature is 3.9ºC
  very unlikely to be less than 2ºC or more than
  6.4ºC

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Climate Projections for Hampshire - Precipitation

• 2080s, Medium emissions scenario, central
  estimate
• Change in winter mean precipitation is 22 very
  unlikely to be less than 4 or more than 50
• Change in summer mean precipitation is 22 very
  unlikely to be less than 47 or more than 7

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Managing Risk and Adapting to Climate Change

• Adapting to unavoidable climate change and
  unpredictable weather patterns should not be a
  bolt on activity for any organisation. It is
  part of
• business continuity management
• performance management
• budget management
• risk management

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Assessing risk

• How do you assess risks to your organisation now?
  
• Climate Change is only one overarching Risk,
  albeit an enormous cross cutting issue
• Can you expand your current practices regarding
  risk assessment or do you need to create a new
  process?

15
Some key areas of risk

• Regulatory costs
• Litigation if your organisation is culpable
• Uninsurable risks
• Subsidence, flood and storm damage claims
• Health and Safety issues
• Vulnerable members of the Community

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Questions?

• Next Steps
• Each member of the Eastleigh Strategic
  Partnership needs to discuss potential affects of
  changing weather on service delivery and business
  management
• The ESP needs to have completed its own Risk
  Assessment by end of February 2010. Are you
  ready?
• Do you need help to do this? Do you need
  training? What are your needs? Group Discussion.

17
Help and Advice

• Beverley Draig, Sustainability Policy Coordinator
  
• Phone [phone]
• Email sustainability_at_eastleigh.gov.uk
• I will be producing local Climate Scenarios for
  2020s, 2050s and 2080s and offering workshops
  for ESP organisations. Contact me for details