Diapositive 1

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East South African Container Markets Trends
and Consequences for Port Authorities Inland
Corridor Services
Dr. YANN ALIX General Delegate SEFACIL
Foundation Le Havre France
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Content of the Presentation

• Introduction Who are we ?
• PART 1
• The liners strategies effects on Regional Port
  competition

• PART II
• From Milk Run Services to Hub to Hub and Spoke
  
• services what gonna change for Port
  Authorities

• PART III
• Global Terminal Operators Global Logistics
  Integrators
• perspectives

Discussion
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The SEFACIL Foundation A unique international
think-tank around strategic prospective
analysis on Port, Maritime Logistics
Polarizing the knowledge and the intelligences
on Port/Maritime/Logistics by teaming-up an
International Applied Research Programme
Creation of innovative products on
Africa-China-Europe developments thanks to the
support of the biggest private enterprises as
well as national and international public bodies
and institutions
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Shipping containers handled in Ports by Country
in 2008 (prior to the global crisis)
Source WorldMapper 2011
Shipping containers handled in Africa 1980 -
2008 (prior to the global crisis)
Source DREWRY Consultants
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Eastern Southern Countries major ports
Market coverage
UGANDA
KENYA
RWANDA
Mombasa
BURUNDI
Dr. Yann ALIX Jean-François PELLETIER Nov
2011
Dar-es-Salaam
TANZANIA
SEYCHELLES
Indian Ocean
Nacala
COMOROS
MALAWI
ZAMBIA
Toamasina
Atantic Ocean
MOZAMBIQUE
ZIMBABWE
MAURITIUS
Beira
MADAGASCAR
NAMIBIA
Port Louis
BOTSWANA
Walvis Bay
Port Reunion
REUNION
Maputo
Durban
SOUTH AFRICA
East London
Ngqura
Cape Town
Port Elizabeth
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Shipping Lines Connectivity Capacity deployed
on Eastern Southern Ports Situation reported
Sept 2011
3,800,000 Teus Trade Capacity
Source Dynamar 2011, Drewry 2011,
Containerisation International 2011, Alphaliner
2011
350 Vessels
50 Weekly services
20 Ports weekly called
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Regional Market Coverage (Number of TEUs by main
players allocated TEUs capacity deployed on
ports by countries) Situation reported Sept 2011
Source Dynamar 2011, Drewry 2011,
Containerisation International 2011, Alphaliner
2011
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Annual Trade Capacity deployed by Major areas of
markets Situation reported Sept 2011
Europe Med
MidEast India
Africa
Far East Asia
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45
Southern, Eastern Indian Ocean Markets
North America
Source Dynamar 2011, Drewry 2011,
Containerisation International 2011, Alphaliner
2011, Port Authorities
In TEUs
100,000 250,000
500,000 1,000,000
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Port Throughputs by main range (including Durban
2010 in TEUs)
From Kenya to Mozambique
75 of the TEUs handled in Eastern/Southern
Africa are concentrated on South African Ports

Indian Ocean
Namibia
2,000,000 TEUs
1,000,000 TEUs
500,000 TEUs
South Africa
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Mombasa Dar Es Salaam Nacala
Beira Maputo Toamasina Port
Louis Port Réunion East London
Ngqura Port Elizabeth Cape Town
Walvis Bay
Major Port throughputs (except Durban) (Minimum
of 30,000 TEUs/yr)
Source Dynamar 2011, Containerisation
International 2011, Port Authorities
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Sketch on Ports configuration - Yesterday !

• Milk Run System with
•  national single port gateway 
• serving mainly  domestic markets 
• Cross-trading liner system based on
• interlinking Regional Intercontinental
• loops
• Feedering network not enough reliable
• (size of the markets, productivity
• of handling activities, terminal costs
• for thanshipments, dwell time for
• small ships, etc.)
• Economies of scale not sufficient
• Lack of Regional Customs facilitation
• integration
• Very few transnational freight railway
• opportunities
• Few paved roads connecting gateway
• Very few Logistic value added services
• on Imp/Exp products

National Port Gateway hinterland
Transcontinental direct call services National
direct call services Regional feedering
services
Inland boundaries
Regional Hub
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Sketch on Ports configuration - tomorrow ?

• Toward a new subregional
• Port hierarchy based on
• Forecasted increase of Imp/Exp volumes
• New generation of motherships
• (6,000 and ) feederships (1500 and )
• Hub Spoke opportunities
• Improvment of Terminal global
• performances
• Trades imbalances empty strategic
• management
• Regional Port Reform
• GTO investments
• Inland investments
• Multimodal Corridors solutions
• Overlapping of hinterland coverage
• competitiveness to control
• landlocked markets stimulated

National Port Gateway hinterland
Transcontinental direct call services National
direct call services Regional feedering
services Inland multimodal corridors
Inland boundaries
Regional Hub
Hub Spoke terminal
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The Shipping Lines perspective

• New Services design port calls hierarchy based
  on
• The market-related factors because PMAESA Ports
  are not really at the crossroads of major
  intercontinental trades flows even if Durban acts
  as a  regional hub 
• (as for Western Med, Carribean Seas or
  South-East Asia)
•  Undirect  coverage with Hub Spoke solutions
  Vs Direct access to hinterland
• (Savings based on the availablity of cargo
  (regularity reliability) terminal
  productivity Economies of scale by shortcut
  routes services thanks to bigger ships
  deployment, etc)
• The Transhipment port Location (Geographical
  factors Overall Cost Model including feedering
  hinterland dimension)
• The number of calls Vs the order of the
  calls Vs the hierarchy of the calls
• Roundtrip voyage time per ship and per loop Vs
  Frequency Vs the number of ships allocated
  per service to assume weekly coverage

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Global Terminal Operators perspective

• Future Regional Terminal Rivalry
• GTO (HPH, DPW, APMT and so on) are not so much
  involved into portsdevelopment in the PMAESA
  BUT.
• They are looking for being the first movers in
  your terminal/port expansion due to the regional
  economic growth perspective (lack of Port
  infrastructure to accomodate the forecasted
  growth despite the Word crisis )
• They closely watch how Shipping Lines are
  reconsidering
• PMAESA market coverage

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Global Terminal Operators perspective
Source Notteboom Rodrigue 2011
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Global Logistics Integrators perspective

• New Inland Corridor logistics services
  competition
• TBL proposed by Logistics Integrators to have a
  better control on the
• Inland/Landlocked Door-to- African Port Gateway
• African Port Gateway-to-Inland/landlocked Door
  multimodal services
• The Through B/L service
• The Through B/L service includes the costs of
  terminal handling and the oncarriage of
  containers from alongside ship to place of
  delivery.
• The service also includes the charges for
  detention, demurrage, container rental up to
  final destination.
• The exchange of the original B/L and the
  control of the container seal number are made at
  destination by our SDV agent to guarantee the
  safety of your goods

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SL, GTO GLIs perspective

• TOWARD NEW MODELS OF GOVERNANCE TO ENCOURAGE PPP
  PRIVATE INTERESTS TO FUEL THE FUTURE PORT
  LOGISTICS REGIONAL GROWTH

Estimated end of 2010
Source DREWRY Consultants
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MERCI BEAUCOUP !
THANKS A LOT !
www.sefacil.com 00 33 (0)6 11 26 34
21 yann.alix_at_sefacil.com