Waterfowl and Climate Change: Issues and Implications

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Waterfowl and Climate ChangeIssues and
Implications

• Sonja M. Smith

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The Nature of the Problem

• Increasing atmospheric concentrations of
  greenhouse gases (CO2)

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The Nature of the Problem

• Rising global temperatures

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The Nature of the Problem

• Changing precipitation patterns

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The Nature of the Problem

• Rising sea levels,
• Mounting climactic variability,
• And, more (often) extreme climactic events

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The Nature of the Problem

• Anthropogenic land cover change further confounds
  the issue

Johannesburg, South Africa
Morenci Mine, Morenci, AZ
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Climate Change and Wetlands

• Important breeding grounds
• Congregation sites throughout the year/migration
• Important winter habitat
• Biodiversity hotspots in arid regions

Basque del Apache National Wildlife Refuge, NM
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Waterfowl

• Provide important ecosystem goods, annually
• 12 million hunting days
• 46 million birders
• Integral component of natural ecosystems
• Critical role in wildlife policy development
• National Wildlife Refuge System

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Waterfowl and Climate Change

• Coastal/Inland wetland habitat loss
• Breeding grounds
• Migration corridors (flyways)
• Stopover sites
• Timing/distance travelled during migration

Strong relationship between waterfowl water
conditions
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The Migratory Flyways

• 1) Pacific
• 2) Central
• 3) Mississippi
• 4) Atlantic

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1
2
4
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Pacific Flyway

• Habitat loss from rising sea levels/encroaching
  development
• ? snow accumulation and earlier snowmelt ?
  summer water
• 10-30 days earlier
• 11 decrease in snowpack
• Cascades 30-60 decline in snowmelt-derived water

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Central Flyway

• Water regulation/diversion (dams)
• Reduction in open channels/marshes
• Sandhill Cranes, Whooping Cranes
• ? snowpack/higher temperatures
• Limited water availability for humans/other
  species
• The Prairie Pothole Region

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Mississippi Flyway

• Water/shoreline habitat loss in Great Lakes
• 19-39 decline in duck numbers
• Drop in water levels (up to 2.4)
• Decline in SAV
• Increasing contaminant levels
• Gulf Coast sea-level rise ? 45 coastal habitat
  loss
• Canvasbacks, Redheads, Lesser Scaup

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Atlantic Flyway

• Sea-level rise (up to 15) confounded by
  development
• Canvasback, American Black Duck, Northern
  Pintail, American Wigeon, Greater Lesser Scaup,
  Ring-necked Duck, Green-winged Teal, Mottled
  Duck, Wood Duck, Fulvous Whistling Duck, Tundra
  Swan

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Chesapeake Bay

• One of the top wintering waterfowl areas in N.
  America
• gt1 million waterfowl
• Exacerbation of pollution
  effects
• Decline in SAV
• Degradation in water quality
• Warming temperatures
• Increasing human population
• Area already abandoned by Northern Pintail,
  Redhead, American Wigeon

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North Americas duck factory
Central Flyway

• 10 breeding habitat
• Produces 50-80 N. Americas ducks
• gt75 harvested ducks

Mississippi Flyway
Prairie Pothole Region
Pacific Flyway
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Climate Projections
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Climate Change and the PPR

• Palmer draught severity index (PDSI)
• GCMs and sensitivity simulations to predict
  habitat conditions/project future duck numbers
• Correlation between
• pond numbers and PDSI
• breeding duck numbers and PDSI
• 2020s mild drought, PDSI -1.41
• May pond numbers decline by 23
• Duck population decline by 26

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Climate Change and the PPR

• 2050s moderate drought, PDSI -2.59
• May Pond numbers decrease by 38
• Duck population decline by 46

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Northern forest/tundra (CAN and AK)

• 20 N. American breeding waterfowl
• Wintering habitat for 50 Pacific Flyway birds
• Arctic region is the fastest warming
• Loss of important tundra habitat
• Lesser Scaup, Surf Scoter,
• White-winged Scoter

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Migration

• Species expected to skirt their ranges northwards
  and eastwards
• Shift in wintering areas
• i.e., Lithuania Mallards
• Shortening migration routes
• Take-off/Arrival times noticeably earlier

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Effects on waterfowl

• Decrease breeding frequency
• Reduce clutch sizes
• Shorten breeding season
• Decrease re-nesting frequency
• Decrease nest success
• Lower brood survival
• Lower recruitment constant mortality
  declining populations

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Management Implications

• Climate change is detracting for many waterfowl
  species, but
• Habitat loss/other related anthropogenic effects
  on the environment confound this!
• Repercussions of habitat loss and climate change
  may be mitigated by the distribution of remaining
  habitat

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Management Implications

• YOU as future managers
• Predict areas important for waterfowl in the
  future
• Set aside larger areas, buffering zones
• YOU as citizens, hunters, bird-watchers

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Ducks Unlimited

• Grassroots, volunteer-based organization
• Conserves, restores, and manages wetlands and
  associated habitats for N. Americas waterfowl
• 792,638 members (as of 1 January 2008)
• 12,283,871 acres since 1937
• 2.70 billion since 1937
• http//www.ducks.org/conservation/

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Ducks Unlimited
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Acknowledgements

• Dr. Bill Mannan
• Geoffrey Palmer
• Clay Bowers

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Questions?