ASYMMETRIC CONFLICT

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ASYMMETRIC CONFLICT

• GROUP 3
• Kunhui Cai,
• Madan Chauhan,
• Jim Jacaruso,
• Manoj Pant,
• Vinay Srivastava,
• Yoji Tsubaki

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Theory of Asymmetric Conflict

• Asymmetric Conflict is a term that describes a
  military situation in which two belligerents of
  unequal power or capacity of action , interact
  and take advantage of the strength and weaknesses
  of themselves and enemies. The interaction often
  involves strategies and tactics outside the
  bounds of conventional warfare. ( Wikipedia)
• Synonymous with Terrorism/ Not synonymous with
  Terrorism?
• Two Schools1) Descriptive in nature and Asian
  in its approach It assumes that asymmetric and
  indirect are synonyms. Indirect warfare as
  described by Sun Tzu, Mao Tse-tung, B.H.
  Liddell-Hart. Mao advises that one should come
  from the East and yet attack from the West..2)
  Reductive . ..Political scientist believe that
  asymmetric conflict involves two actors
  strong and weak. Demographic, military and
  scientific strengths.

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Theory and Concept

• Other definitions
• a) Defined by transformational use of familiar
  and unfamiliar capability clusters or by
  pitting of different organizational structures
  against each other.
• b) Involves states of unequal aggregate power
  capabilities, measured in terms of material
  resources i.e. size, demography, military
  capability and economic prowess, strategy and
  tactics. (T.V. Paul)
• c) Asymmetric warfare is leveraging inferior
  tactical or operational strength against the
  vulnerabilities of a superior opponent to achieve
  disproportionate effect with the aim of
  undermining the opponents will in order to
  achieve the asymmetric actors strategic
  objectives.(Kenneth McKenzie).

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Theory and Concepts

• If you use pressure, we will deploy pressure and
  force. We know that you can harm us although we
  do not threaten you. But we too can harm you.
  Everyone can cause harm according to their
  ability and their size. We cannot come all the
  way to you in the United States, but individual
  Arabs may reach you.
• -Saddam Hussein, 1990
• Put simply, asymmetric threats or techniques are
  a version of not "fighting fair.
• Asymmetric strategy may not only sidestep
  opponents or hit them where they aint but also
  go over them ( Desert Storm), or under them(
  terrorist attacks or cyber attacks).

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SOME THOUGHTS ?

• Trends in correlations of war data show that
  strong actors have been losing more asymmetric
  conflicts.A)1800-1849 34 asymmetric conflicts
  .
• 88.2 won by strong actors.
• Greek war of Indep,
• US second seminole war,1835-42,
• First Zulu War 1838-42,
• First British Afghan War 1838-42.
• B)1850-189969 asymmetric conflicts,
• 79.5 won by strong actors.
• The Second Opium War1856-60,
• Second Schleswig-Holstein war,1864,
• The Russo-Turkoman War 1878-81,
• The Second Boer War1899-1902.

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Trends

• C)1900-1949 31 asymmetric conflicts,
• 65.1 won by strong actors.
• Russo-Japanese War 1904-1905,
• The First Balkan War1912-1913,
• The Iraqi-British Conflict1920-1921,
• The US Nicaraguan Conflict1927-1933.
• D)1950-199836 asymmetric conflict
• 45 won by strong actors,.
• South vietnam,1961-65,
• The Anglo Portugal War 1961-75,
• The Mozambique Conflict1964-75,
• The Russo- Chechen War 1994-96.

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REASONS FOR SUCH A TREND

• The Nature of the Actor (Structural) Democratic
  v/s Authoritarian type of regime.
• Arms Diffusion (Technological) Diffusion of
  relatively advanced small arms in Developing
  World raised the costs of conquest for strong
  actors.
• The Growth of militant Nationalism ( Cultural)
  ideological asymmetries, national liberationists
  were more committed and willing to lay their
  lives.
• The role of relative Resolve/ interests
  (Psychological) Relative vulnerability vis-à-vis
  relative power and interests. For strong actors
  survival is not at risk so have lower interest.
• Strategic interactions ( Strategic/ conceptual)
  Wrong politico-military strategy against weak
  actor may result in losing. The Key variable is
  Time. Delay favors weak!

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What guides Weaker Power to go to Conflict with
Stronger power( T V Paul)

• Politico Military Strategy in asymmetric war
  initiation
• blitzkrieg (lightning strike)
• attrition/maneuver
• limited aims/fait accompli.
• Offensive weapons , limited capability and
  asymmetric war initiation
• Alliance Support and war calculation
• Domestic Structure and asymmetric war initiation
• Time Pressure

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SOME EXAMPLES

• Use of terrorism by much lesser Mongol forces in
  the creation and control of the Mongol Empire.
• Non violent struggle by Mahatma Gandhi
• Israel and Palestine warfare.
• India-Pakistan Kargil warfare.
• U.S. Cuba Conflict.
• China- Taiwan Conflict.
• North Korea- South Korea .
• U.S.- Iran Conflict.

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WHY US IRAN CONFLICT IS ASYMMETRIC

• UNEQUAL POWER BASE
• LEVERAGING TACTICS
• TERRORISM
• RELIGIOUS
• DESIRE TO RISE

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US - Iranian History

• 1883 - U.S and Persia appoint diplomatic envoys
• 1941 - Allied Powers force Shah to abdicate
  throne to his more pro-allies son. Allied Forces
  use Iran as staging base for re-supply of Russian
  forces in WWII.
• 1951 - Iranian Prime Minister Mossadegh tries to
  nationalize oil industry and limit the power of
  Shah
• 1953 - American and British intelligence services
  sponsor a coup that overthrows Mossadegh.
• 1963/64 - Shahs White Revolution. Ayatollah
  Khomeini exiled for denunciation of Shahs status
  of forces bill for US Military Personnel.
• 1965/72 - America provides significant military
  support to Iran. Shah leverages Irans strategic
  position in US containment policy.

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US - Iranian History

• 1978 - Iranian Islamic Revolution Council is
  formed
• 1979 - Shah is forced into exile - later enters
  US for cancer treatment - students seize US
  embassy and diplomats beginning a 444 day
  hostage crises.
• 1980 - President Carter severs diplomatic ties
  with Iran - expels Iranian diplomats from US
• 1980 - Iraq invades Iran leading to a 10 year war
  during which the US openly supports Iraq.
• 1982 - American supported Lebanese Christian
  forces kidnap Iranian diplomats - begins a nine
  year period of kidnapping of western hostages.
• 1983 - Bombing of US embassy and US Marine
  Barracks in Beirut - US places blame/suspicion
  for both events on Iranian supported Hezbollah
  

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US - Iranian History

• 1984 - Bombing of Embassy annex in Beirut - US
  says Hezbollah known to have been involved
• 1985/86 - Iran-Contra scandal
• 1988 USS Vincennes shoots down Iranian Airliner
  over the gulf killing 290. Iran views this as
  evidence the US was going to get involved in the
  Iran - Iraq war.
• Two weeks later Khomeini accepts UN brokered
  cease-fire with Iraq
• 1990 - Iran remains neutral in US led war against
  Iraq denouncing both the US and Iraq
• 1993 - President Clinton takes office -
  institutes a policy to isolate Iran
• 1995 - Clinton signs an executive order banning
  all trade with Iran.

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US - Iranian History

• 1996 - Khobar Tower bombing in Saudi Arabia - 19
  US service personnel killed - Hezbollah blamed.
• Iran - Lybia Sanctions act passed.
• 1999 - US eases sanctions against state
  supporters of terrorism
• 2000 - US officially acknowledges US role in 1953
  coup but does not apologize.
• 2001 - US releases 46 count indictment against
  unidentified Iranians in the Khobar Towers case.
• Iran condemns US air strikes in Afghanistan yet
  agrees to perform search and rescue missions for
  US pilots downed in Iran.
• Iranian President denounces Osama Bin Laden and
  rejects US assertions that Iran supports
  terrorism.

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US IRAN

• Current Relationship
• 2001, President Bush unfreezes the Nuclear
  program
• 2002 - President Bush refers to Iran as part of
  an Axis of evil and states they are pursuing WMD
  and Terrorist Activities
• Defense Secretary Rumsfeld links Iran to suicide
  attacks in Israel
• 2003, IAEA reports that Iran is Enriching Uranium
• Since then
• US asserts that Iran is supporting terrorists
• Iran asserts that US is violating Iranian
  sovereignity
• 2007, US arrests Iranian diplomats in Iraq
• UNSC imposes sanctions on Iran
• Iran arrests 15 British Sailors for venturing
  into Iranian Waters
• Is War Imminent?

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Tracing the Conflict

• US MEDIA PORTRAYAL OF IRAN
• Iran is the country that grabbed U.S. embassy
  officials as hostages and then embarked on a
  series of terror strikes against U.S. targets.
• Iranians will stop at nothing to preserve their
  homeland the taking of hostages, terrorism, and
  nuclear weapons are just instruments for them to
  scare America out of their backyard.
• IRANIANS VIEW OF AMERICA
• America remains an enemy that has repeatedly
  expressed its desire to overthrow the Iranian
  government.
• Most Iranians believe the Khat e-Imam took the
  American embassy to destroy its network of spies
  and put an end to American plans to launch a
  military coup in Iran
• US INTENTIONS

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ISSUES

• OIL
• Nuclear Aspirations
• Regional Balance of Power
• Support of Terrorism
• UN Sanctions

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Issues involved

• Issue 1 Petro
• BY 2010, US NEEDS 50 MILLION BARRELS A DAY OF OIL
• While many regions of the world offer great oil
  opportunities, the Middle East with two thirds of
  the world's oil and the lowest cost, is still
  where the prize ultimately lies.
• PETRODOLLARS AND OIL TRADEThe world buys and
  sells oil in dollars, meaning that all the
  countries of the world subsidise the US economy
  as the US has a monopoly on printing dollars.

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Issues involved

• The oil-producing countries have to trade in
  dollars and any country wanting to buy oil must
  first acquire dollars which can only be obtained
  by trading with the US, that is, buying US
  products and services.
•   This means that trillions of dollars are traded
  daily on the major currency exchanges, based in
  Washington, DC and in London.
• The surplus generated through these exchanges
  and sales of US financial instruments subsidizes
  an otherwise bankrupt US economy.  

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NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN OIL TRADE

• Over the past four years the value of the euro
  has appreciated by 13 against the dollar making
  it a preferred currency to sell oil with, hence
  Iraqs switch to the euro in 2002
• Upcoming establishment of an Iranian oil bourse
  based on euros which presents a direct threat to
  the power of the US dollar
• Venezuela to trade its oil in euros and in spite
  of the USs military supremacy, the US economy is
  in serous trouble if Iran and Venezuela go ahead
  with the switch
• Countries such as Russia are mixing oil sales
  using a basket of currencies

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Nuclear Issues

• The IAEA reported in 2003, that Iran had hidden a
  Uranium enrichment program for 18 years.
• Western Members of IAEA called on Iran to commit
  itself to stopping all enrichment activities
  permanently, but it has refused to do so and has
  abandoned the temporary halt as well.
• The clash with Iran escalated in Feb 2006, when
  the IAEA as a whole reported Iran to Security
  Council and in March Security Council decided to
  take up the issue after receiving the copy of the
  report on Iran.
• UN had issued dead line to suspend Uranium
  enrichment program which ended on 21st Feb 2007,
  but Iran ignored the UN deadline.
• UNSC slaps sanctions on Iran in March 2007

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MILITARY DOCTRINE SO FAR

• Iran's military doctrine and capacity is defense
  of its own territorial integrity only
• Iran has never attacked any of its neighbors in
  the region in the past 300 years, even when it
  was badly provoked in 1998 by the Taliban in
  Afghanistan

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IRANIAN MILITARY STRENGTH

• Iran has two kinds of armed forces the regular
  forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps
  (IRGC), totaling about 545,000 personnel
• Iran also has a paramilitary, volunteer militia
  force called the Basij, which includes about
  90,000 full-time, active-duty uniformed members,
  up to 300,000 reservists, and a further 11
  million men and women who could be mobilized.
• Iran's military capabilities are kept largely
  secret. Since 1992, it has produced its own
  tanks, armored personnel carriers, guided
  missiles, submarines, and a fighter plane

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WEAPON DEVELOPMENT

• In recent years, official announcements have
  highlighted weapons such as Fajr-3 (MIRV)
  missile, Hoot, Kowsar, Fateh-110, Shahab-3, and
  unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)
• The Fajr-3 (MIRV) is currently Iran's most
  advanced ballistic missile. It is a
  domestically-developed and produced liquid fuel
  missile with an unknown range

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MISSILE PROGRAM

• The IRIS solid-fuelled missile is a program which
  is supposed to be Iran's first missile to bring
  satellites into orbit

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Stakeholders

• UN
• US
• Iran
• Russia
• Israel
• Saudi Arabia and other US allied Arab nations
• Turkey
• Iraq
• UK
• EU
• IAEA

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Group Exercise

• Break up into groups
• Clarify their Frames, their positions, interests.
• What could be some of the possible ways of
  resolving or de- escalating the conflict

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From PPA 601 class lecture Spring 2007, Framing-
Prof Catherine Gerard
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POSITIONS AND INTERESTS
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Strategies for Resolution

• Diplomacy
• Dialogueinterest based negotiations
• Multi-track Diplomacy
• Economic Pressure
• Public Diplomacy
• Military Action
• Truth and Reconciliation Commissions
• Reframing

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THANK YOU