Demographic Statistics and Trends

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Demographic Statistics and Trends

• Knowing who is (and who isnt) knocking at the
  college door
• Becky Brodigan
• Middlebury College
• College Board Forum
• October 31, 2005

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What goes into the equation?

• High School Graduation Projections (by race and
  income) by region through 2018
• College Going Rates
• Migration Data
• Enrollment Patterns by Race and Gender

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New England, Surrounding States, Regions and the
United States

• Projections by Race/Ethnic Group and Income
• Vary widely by racial/ethnic group and region
• Overall picture not rosy

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Number of Public High School Graduates Peaks in
2009 and doesnt recover until 2018
Source WICHE/The College Board
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HS Graduates in New England
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HS Graduates in New England
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Changes in actual numbers from 2006 to 2108
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Chance for college by age 19 in New England
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SAT Takers by Race/Ethnicity
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Changes in HS graduates in the Northeast
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Changes in HS graduates in the Pennsylvania
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Projections of HS Graduates in the South
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Chance for college by age 19 in South
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Projections of HS Graduates in the Midwest
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Projections of HS Graduates in the West
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Chance for college by age 19 in the West
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Projections of HS Graduates in the United States
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Emigration of College Students
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Percent of Freshmen from Out-of-State
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Levels of Education for the High School Class of
1992 ( by 2000)
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Four-Year College and University Enrollment Rates
of 1992 HS Graduates by Family Income and Math
Test Scores
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Participation by Low-income

• All New England states above the national average
  of 25
• Lowest rates are in the south and west

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College going rates Where are the boys?

• Males outnumber female through age 30 for every
  100 girls born, 105 males are born
• Males account for less than 50 of high school
  graduates
• Males account for 47 of college freshmen
• Continuation rates vary by gender men around
  61 and women 67

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What about boys?

• Among 15-24 year olds, suicide rates are almost 6
  times higher for boys than for girls
• There are 707 prisoners for every 100,000 people
  and 90 are male
• The male voting rate has declined from 72 to 53
  from 1964 to 2000 twice the decline in the
  female voting rate
• Do/will males have an advantage in college
  admissions?
• From Fact Sheet Whats Wrong with the Guys?
  Thomas G. Mortenson

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SAT Takers by Gender
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Fall 2004 Freshmen by Gender by Institution Type
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Fall 2004 Freshmen by Gender and Region
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Fall 2004 Freshmen by Gender by Income
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Fall 2004 Freshmen Average HS Grades by Gender
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NE Enrollment Patterns Full-Time
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NE Enrollment Patterns Part-Time
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Enrollment at Liberal Arts Colleges
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Enrollment at Ivy League
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Doctoral (minus technical universities)
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Percent of Total Undergraduate State AidNot
Based on Need, 1982 to 2002 (Source College
Board)
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Summary

• HS graduation projections
• in NE going down over all
• Increases in groups with lower college
  continuation rates
• Increasing in states that do not export students
• Male/Female ratios not likely to improve
• Colleges in NE going to have to work harder just
  to maintain market share expand marketing
  efforts and develop new strategies

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What do these colleges have in common?

• Bradford College
• Westbrook College
• Ricker College
• Trinity College
• Notre Dame
• No longer exist or exist under a different name

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References

• Publications
• Postsecondary Opportunity July 2004, October
  2004, November 2004 and December 2004
• Trends in Educational Equity of Girls and Women,
  NCES.
• College Board Data and Reporting Products,
  Integrated State Summary Report New England - All
  Schools
• 2004 College-Bound Seniors A Profile of SAT
  Program Test Takers
• Enrollment in Postsecondary Education
  Institutions, Fall 2002 and Financial Statistics,
  Fiscal Year 2002
• The Condition of Education, 2004 National
  Center for Education Statistics
• Education Pays 2004 The College Board
• Gender Equity in Higher Education Are Male
  Students at a Disadvantage? American Council on
  Education Center for Policy Analysis, 2000 and
  updated tables and figures, August 2003.
• Knocking at the College Door Projections of
  High School Graduates by State, Income and
  Race/Ethnicity Western Interstate Commission
  for Higher Education, December 2003.
• The American Freshman National Norms for Fall
  2004, Cooperative Institutional Research Program,
  Higher Education Research Institute, UCLA,
  December 2004.
• Books
• Mismatch The Growing Gulf Between Men and
  Women, Andrew Hacker, Scribner, 2003.
• Raising Cain Protecting the Emotional Life of
  Boys, Dan Kindlon and Michael Thompson,
  Ballantyne, 2000.
• Conditions of Access Higher Education for Lower
  Income Students, Donald Heller, Editor,
  Praeger/ACE, 2002.
• Americas Untapped Resource Low Income Students
  in Higher Education, Richard D, Kahlenberg,
  Editor, The Century Foundation, 2004.
• The Source of the River The Social Origins of
  Freshmen at America's Selective Colleges and
  Universities Douglas s. Massey, Camille Z.
  Charles, Garvey F. Lundy, Mary J. Fischer,
  Princeton University Press, 2003.

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