Future of IT United States Perspective

1
Future of ITUnited States Perspective

• Robert Stumpf, Professor
• Computer Information Systems
• California State Polytechnic University Pomona,
  California, USA

2
Future of ITUnited States Perspective

• About Silicon Valley in California
• The World Wide Web
• The Future
• IT Information Technology

3
About Silicon Valley

• California is the sixth largest economy in the
  world
• Its number one industry is agriculture
• It takes two to three days to drive from the
  North to the South
• Around San Francisco there exists a Silicone
  Valley where IBM, Intel, Hewlett Packard, and
  Sun reside

4
About Silicon Valley

• About 40 of United States households are
  connected to the Web
• PCs are very cheap - under 600.00 US
• Cost to Internet is cheap
• free local phone calls
• 20.00 US per month for unlimited access
• Households only have copper wire (phone) and coax
  (cable) to them

5
About Silicon Valley

• Who is Gordon Moore
• Moores Law (1965)
• Processing power doubles every year
• Who is Gordon Moore - Intel co-founder
• 30 years later this geometric growth is the
  driving force of the computer industry
• Scientific American, September 1997

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About Silicon Valley

• What does Moores Law mean to all of us ?
• Technological improvement will not stop
• You will never own the latest computer for very
  long
• Chips will appear in everything we use
• It means we will always have a lot of new
  knowledge to learn

7
The World Wide Web

• Most web applications are still a substitute for
  mail order
• Internet shopping malls - www.mallpark.com
• Bookstores - www.amazon.com
• Dell Computer - www.dell.com
• King Music - www.kingmusic.com

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The World Wide Web

• Other applications are a substitute for phone
  order
• Pizza Delivery - www.dialadonga.com.au
• Groceries - www.greengrocer.com.au
• Airlines - www.unitedairlines.com.au
• Internet Travel Network - www.itn.net

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The World Wide Web

• The more advanced companies have web support
• 3Com and U.S. Robotics - www.usr.com
• GE - www.ge.com
• Lotus - www.lotus.com
• Bank of America - www.bankamerica.com

10
The Future

• Andy Grove of Intel has announced that by year
  2000 we will have
• 1000 mega hertz chips
• Tera byte hard disks
• Giga byte memories
• Large flat monitors
• Breakthrough in modems

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The Future

• The PC will be a home entertainment centre
• Television
• Stereo
• Home video
• Photograph album
• Phone system

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The Future

• In 1993, Douglas North won the Nobel Prize for
  economics for analysis of transaction costs in
  the US economy
• They amounted to 45 of the national income (note
  they were 25 in 1900)
• At the heart of transaction costs is the cost of
  information

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The Future

• The cost of information is the cost of
  processing, storing and transmitting it
• If one follows Moores law, we are talking about
  a very significant change to a major input cost
  into the economy
• E-Commerce, BRW, 7 September 1998

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The Future

• Hewlett-Packard - www.hp.com
• Envisions smart home appliances
• This means the chip will call up the Doctor on
  the Internet for fixes
• Many repairs may be made transparently
• Others will be made automatically

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The Future

• Amway - www.amway.com
• Envisions Theres nothing we to do in human
  effort.
• This means all distribution, finance, ordering,
  and inventory is on the web
• They are adding EDI as well

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The Future

• Food for thought
• Loan application verification via the web without
  human interaction
• Multimedia interactive education produced by
  Steven Spielberg
• Medical Analysis diagnostic systems many times
  more complete than your family doctor

17
Thank You

• If you are not riding the wave of change - you
  will find yourself beneath it.
• Robert Stumpf, Professor
• e-mail stumpf_at_bf.rmit.edu.au - Australia
• rvstumpf_at_csupomona.edu - United States
• url http//www.csupomona.edu/rvstumpf/