Losing Air Dominance? Hard Lessons in Strategic Planning

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Losing Air Dominance?
Hard Lessons in Strategic Planning
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What is Air Dominance?
Operation Desert Storm, 1991

• Air superiority over enemy to meet joint force
  goals
• Freedom to attackany target, with mission
  success
• Freedom from attackdefeat of enemy fighters and
  SAMs
• Freedom to maneuverfor forces on land or sea

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Iraq and Afghanistan
Sorties Flown 2004 to 2008
Munitions Dropped 2004 to 2008
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The Plan After 1991

• Success of F-117 in 1991 Gulf war set Air Force
  position on stealth
• Fighter force structure cut by 44 as Cold War
  ended
• Replacement strategy
• 1991 Advanced Tactical Fighter program
  down-select to maintain air dominance
  technologies
• 1994 Joint Strike Fighter research initiated as
  affordable stealth fighter/attack to replace F-16
  and A-10 force structure
• Never again buy a non-stealthy fighter Chief
  of Staff Gen. McPeak

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Major Fighter Aircraft Buys 1963-2008
Todays CAF purchased
Estimates 59 F-117s
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The Force Mix Active Component 1995
Active Fighter and Attack Aircraft A-10, F-4,
F-111, F-15, F-15E, F-16, F-117, F-22

• Force healthy in mid-1990s
• Steady fighter buys in 1980s recapitalized force
• 1995 Legacy fighters over 18 years less than 1
  of active force

Only 6 aircraft over 18 yrs.
TAI Active Only
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2003 Operation Iraqi Freedom Aircraft Felt Their
Age
Mission Capable Rates Operation Desert Storm vs.
Operation Iraqi Freedom
Desert Storm Data 28 Feb 91
Iraqi Freedom Data Average

• Decline from Operation Desert Storm averaged over
  10
• F-15C average age 18 years

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F-22s

• F-22 is first supersonic stealth aircraft
• 2 engine, supercruise design with ample internal
  missiles
• Designed to assure air dominance through fleet
  life 2040
• Depends on number of aircraft procured

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From Three Fighters to One

• F-117 Stealth attack of heavily defended targets

200

• F-15E Advanced air-to-ground platform

55
410

• F-15 Air superiority fighter with 100 kills, no
  air combat losses

665 Total Active F-15, F-15E and F-117
F-22 183 Currently Funded 381 F-22s Air Force
Requirement
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How to See Stealth

• In contrast, the F-22 has four internal weapons
  bays and targeting integrated with its avionics

NOT STEALTH
STEALTH

• This F-15E from Lakenheath on an OIF mission
  carried fuel, targeting pods, air-to-ground
  weapons and air-to-air missiles externally

• Internal fuel and weapons bays greatly improve
  the F-22s stealth
• The two side-bay doors are open here

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F-22 and F-35 Partnership

• F-22 technology development and risk reduction
  flow to F-35

Radar
F119/F120 Engine Development
Integrated, open architecture avionics
Unique F-22 Capabilities
Computer-based maintenance
Advanced LO Materials and Manufacturing
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True to Plan Major Fighter Aircraft Buys
1988-2015
1991 Gulf War
F-22 and F-35 would have led to smaller force,
more precision and survivability, no legacy
aircraft
Estimate
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Comptrollers Plan December 2004 PBD 753 (FY06
PB)

• PBD 753 cut 10B from F-22 program (100 aircraft)

• Pushed long-term funding far below stated
  requirement

10.5B Cut
46.1B Cut
2,167 reqt.
1772 QDR
1285 funded
F-15E
More OS costs for old Fighters
F-15C
197
F-22
190
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Crisis Major Fighter Aircraft Buys 1988-2015
1991 Gulf War
Budget cuts shrink force below QDR requirement
Estimate
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The Legacy Force Mix Active Component
Active Fighter and Attack Aircraft A-10, F-4,
F-111, F-15, F-15E, F-16, F-117, F-22

• Steady fighter buys in 1980s recapitalized force
• From 1990 to 2008, active fighter and attack
  force shed 1000 aircraft
• 1995 Legacy fighters over 18 years less than 1
  of active force
• 2008 Legacy fighters over 18 years 55 of active
  force

Only 6 aircraft over 18 yrs.
784 aircraft over 18 yrs.
TAI Active Only
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F-22 Force Sizing
Elmendorf AFB
2
Langley AFB
NATO No F-22s
2
2
1
CENTCOM AOR
PACOM AOR
Holloman AFB
Hickam AFB

• Considerations
• New administration budget guidance
• F-22 availability for NATO
• PACOM force structure
• Option for Japan

• Current
• Program of Record is 183 total aircraft buy
• Will yield 126 Combat-Coded Aircraft
• 7 Squadrons 18 PAA

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Threat Environment
2884 Iraqi Surface to Air Missile Launches in 2003

• Iraq 2003 2884 launches in 25 days
• Peak 190 launches on Day 15
• Persistent mobile SAMs moved daily
• SA-2, SA-3, SA-6s, Rolands
• 66 were unlocated despite 12 years of operations
  and one year of accelerated SAM destruction
• Kosovo 1999 894 SAM launches in 78 days
• Peak 43 launches on Day 39

Threats can persist for weeks even against older
defenses US forces have not yet faced SA-20
SA-20
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Red Air

• Lethal SAMS and Red air
• 1200 F-10 advanced 4th Gen fighters in
  production
• DIA estimates similar to Typhoon, Rafale
• Su-30 and Su-33 purchases
• Work on AWACS-like system based on IL-76
• Acquisition of 8 Russian air refueling aircraft
• Complete radar coverage of all borders

You will be outnumbered ADM Willard,
Commander, US Pacific Fleet, Sep 2008
PRC F-10
Source DoD Report, 2006
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Getting Back on Track?

• Ratio gets worse, before it gets better
• Fighter force reaches 80 legacy circa 2014
• Recovers to 62 legacy circa 2020
• Assumes 243 total F-22s
• Assumes ramp rate to 80 USAF F-35s per year
• Active total inventory declines to 1320
• Guard and Reserve forces steadily age out
• Fighter and attack force highly capable but
  limited in number of joint tasks it can serve

Active Fighter and Attack Aircraft A-10, F-4,
F-111, F-15, F-15E, F-16, F-117, F-22
Estimate
TAI Active Only
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F-22 Termination Options
Maintain service life to 2038
Lot 10 then defer to QDR Analysis Yields 203
F-22s
Current Program
CJCS 60
Fleet Size
183
381
260
240
280
339
220
200
300
OSD
USAF
Lot 10
Lot 11
Lot 12

• Sustain force with 3 more lots
• 20-24 acft per lot
• Synchronize with F-35 way forward
• Hedge F-35 concurrency risk
• 10 squadrons total
• Take from back-up inventory, training and
  attrition reserve to create 10 squadrons

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Way Ahead

• Biggest risk restricting program build-up from
  2010 to 2015

• No service depends more on F-35 than the USAF
• Only program of maturity and scale to maintain
  USAF fighter and attack missions

• Essential for Navy, Marine Corps and allies

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F-22 Workforce Impact
I can throw a blanket over the production line
to keep it warm, but what about the people? --
F-22 Program Manager
If Production Continues
Jobs Lost at F-22 Production Termination
17,000
Direct F-22 Jobs by State

• F-22 has 26,657 direct jobs in 2008
• At full rate, F-35 will transfer 5300 jobs some
  to other programs
• 4,400 jobs remain on F-22 after 2011
• Permanent loss of 17,000 highly skilled jobs