Human Capital and Inclusive Growth

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Human Capital and Inclusive Growth
Jesús Crespo Cuaresma Department of
Economics University of Innsbruck jesus.crespo-cua
resma_at_uibk.ac.at
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Outline

• Human capital and inclusive growth.
• A tentative decision tree.
• Tools for country analysis the example of
  Zambia.
• Human capital and demographic trends
• The labour supply side
• Identifying binding constraints
• Returns to education and return heterogeneity.
• Human capital and migration patterns.
• The labour demand side
• Identifying binding constraints Firm
  perceptions.

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A theoretical framework

• Lucas (1988) growth model
• Production function
• Human capital definition
• Accumulation rule
• Euler equation

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A tentative decision tree for human capital
Problem Low levels of human capital investment
High cost of finance
Low returns to education
Skill mismatch
Low demand for skilled labor (brain drain)
Problems in school access and/or infrastructure
Lack of access to (public) finance for education
Demand-side factors
Supply-side factors
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Education attainment by gender and age group
Zambia, 1970-2000
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Education attainment by gender and age group
Zambia, 2010-2020
http//www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/POP/edu07/index.ht
ml?sb11
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The demographic dividend and educational
attainment
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The demographic dividend and educational
attainment
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The demographic dividend and educational
attainment
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School enrollment
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School enrollment by gender and residence Zambia
1992-2002
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School enrollment by gender and residence Zambia
1992-2002
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School enrollment by gender and residence Zambia
1992-2002
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School enrollment by gender and residence Zambia
1992-2002
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School enrollment by gender and residence Zambia
1992-2002
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School attendance by income and residence Zambia
1992-2002
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Human capital data The macroeconomic policy view
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Estimating returns to education

• Mincerian wage regressions,
• where X contains variables summarizing
  characteristics of the individual (age,
  experience, gender, education) and the firm
  (sector).

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Estimating returns to education

• Mincerian wage regressions,
• Education in wage regressions
• Years of education Average return to
  education.
• No distinction between different attainments.
• Potential nonlinearities.
• Educational attainment levels.
• Comparability issues.
• Probably more helpful to identify bottlenecks and
  constraints.
• Interaction terms to assess differences across
  social groups.
• Differences male/female.
• Quantile regressions to assess differences across
  parts of the wage distribution.

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Estimating returns to education

• Zambia Productivity and Investment Climate
  Survey 2007 (Employee questionaire)
• Data on over 900 employees for 153 enterprises.
• Personal characteristics age, gender, previous
  experience, job experience,
• Education information
• Years of education.
• Educational attainment Primary, secondary
  general, secondary technical, vocational
  training, university first degree
  (domestic/foreign), university second degree
  (domestic/foreign).

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Estimating returns to education
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Estimating returns to education
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Estimating returns to education

• Parameters differ across quantiles,
• where bq is the parameter vector associated with
  the q-th quantile of the conditional distribution
  of the wage variable.

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Estimating returns to education
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Estimating returns to education

• Differences in returns to education
• Across educational attainment levels.
• For women/men.
• Across quantiles of the conditional distribution
  of wages.
• Constraints on the supply side?
• Vocational training and tertiary education
  receive relatively high returns.
• Technical versus general secondary schooling.
• Much higher returns in higher quantiles of the
  conditional distribution of wage levels.

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Migration rates by skill level
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Migration rates by skill level and gender
Zambia, 2000
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Migration rates within Zambia
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Migration patterns by education and gender

• Brain drain versus labour migration.
• Feminization of the brain drain.
• Relatively low levels for African standards.
• Lack of statistics and monitoring.
• Particularly important for the health sector.

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The labour demand side

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The labour demand side

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The labour demand side

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The labour demand side

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The labour demand side

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The labour demand side

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The labour demand side

• Skill of labor force is not reported as an
  important constraint by firms, although
• Domestic firms report it to be more of a problem
  than foreign firms
• Self selection?
• Wage competition?
• Exporting firms report it to be more of a problem
  than non-exporting firms
• Medium-sized firms report it to be more of a
  problem than small and large firms