Analytical Structure

1
Analytical Structure

• Origins, Objectives, Doctrine
• Leadership, Leadership Structure
• Support Structure
• Strategy, Tactics
• Counterterrorist Efforts
• Non-Violent Political Activities

2
1. Origins, Objectives, Doctrine
3
Roots of Radical Sunni Ideology

• Anti-colonial nationalism
• Israel-Palestine issue
• Ahmad ibn Taymiyyah
• (Damascas) 1263-1328 Deobandi Islam
• returning to original 1867 British-held India
• sources of Islam anti-colonial Islam Abu al-Ala
  Maududi Abdullah Azzam
• 1903-1979 Palestinian 1941-1989
• Pakistan Intellectual mentor of OBL
• Purification of Islam is a key
• to independence from British
• Salafism
• Late 1800s Rashid Rida, Egypt Muslim
  Brotherhood Sayyid Qutb
• return to 1866-1935 Egypt 1928
  1906-1966
• original sources only Salafi beliefs
  Hassan al-Banna Egypt Al-Qaeda
• can free Muslims rejects British
  colonialism member of MB Osama
  bin-Laden from colonialism rejects
  westernization of Islam purify
  Islam Ayman al-Zawahri
• rejects church/state separation
  violence if necessary

Israel-Palestine issue
4
Origins of AQ

• Iranian Revolution
• (1978-1979)
• provides inspiration foreign fighters
• formation go home,
• of Afghan mujahadin form new groups
• or join existing
• Pakistan military groups, create a
• allies with radical global terror
• Islamic groups (1977-79) network
• provides sanctuary
• Ideological legacy USSR invades US,
  China, Pakistan Soviets
• of radical Islamic Afghanistan Egypt, Saudi
  Arabia, withdraw
• thought 1979 and others funding,
  1989
• provides ideology supplying, and training
• and inspiration mujahadin and jihadis

5
AQ is Clear About Goals

• 1996 fatwa
• 1998 fatwa
• Al-Qaeda Training Manual (from Dept. of Justice)
• Bin-Laden videos
• Abu Bakr Naji,
• The Management of
• Savagery
• Article on Mustafa
• Setmariam Nasar
• (Abu Musab al-Suri)
• Militant Ideology Atlas
• (Combating Terrorism Center)

6
Restore the Caliphate

• From al-Qaeda The Many Faces of an Islamist
  Extremist Threat, REPORT OF THE U.S. HOUSE
  PERMANENT SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE , JUNE
  2006

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AQAM Attacks 1995-2011
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• 2. Leadership, Leadership Structure

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Founders

• Abdullah Azzam

• Osama bin-Laden

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Leadership

• AQ Leadership 1989
• Leadership 2008
• Decentralization
• Regional Nodes
• Cells

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Central Structure
OBL Emir General and core leaders
Shura
Media
Finance
Military
Religious/ Legal
N
E
O
D
S
L
E
C
S
L
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Networks I

• Traditional organization model
• Hierarchical/corporate model

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Networks II

• Corporate Model
• Centralization
• Control
• Command
• Authority
• Permanent structure
• Transparent operations for coordination

• Network model
• Decentralized
• Autonomous
• Entrepreneurial
• Disconnected or isolated
• Temporary linkages
• Operational secrecy

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Networks III

• Models

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Cell Operations
T
T
O
O
F
F
T
O
F
P
L
L
P
L
P
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Another View of Structure
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AQ Cells

• From al-Qaeda The Many Faces of an Islamist
  Extremist Threat, REPORT OF THE U.S. HOUSE
  PERMANENT SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE , JUNE
  2006

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• 3. Support Structure

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AQ Support and Activities

• AQ Attacks
• AQ Affiliated Organizations

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AQ Finances
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4. Strategy and Tactics

• The Debate
• The Far Enemy
• 0r
• The Near Enemy
• Writings on Strategy
• Abu Bakr Naji, The Management of Savagery
• Article on Mustafa Setmariam Nasar
• (Abu Musab al-Suri)

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Model A Focus on Near Enemy

• Terrorist attacks Undermining
• Political Agitation of current
• Religious Indoctrination regimes

Revolution, Coup, Insurgency, Electoral
participation (but goal of authoritarian State)
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Model B-1 Near and Far Enemy US Withdrawal

• Terrorist attacks Undermining
• Political Agitation of current
• Religious Indoctrination regimes
• Strike at US
• Strike at US allies US withdraws
• from involvement

Revolution, Coup, Insurgency, Electoral
participation (but goal of authoritarian State)
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Model B-2 Near and Far Enemy US Overreaction

• Terrorist attacks Undermining
• Political Agitation of current
• Religious Indoc. regimes
• Strike at US
• Strike at US allies US Overreaction

Revolution, Coup, Insurgency, Electoral
participation (but goal of authoritarian state)
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Classic Maoist Insurgent Warfare

• Phase III Movement Warfare
• Nearness
• to goal Phase II Guerrilla Warfare
• Phase I Propaganda and Organization
• Time

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Al-Qaeda Insurgent/Terrorist Warfare

• Iran Model Afghan./Somalia Model
• Sudan Model
• Nearness
• To goal Phase III Taking Power
• Phase II Terrorist Strikes
• Phase I Education/Religious Instruction
  and
• Creation of Network Organization
• Time

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Abu Bakr Naji, The Management of Savagery

• Current political and create
  establish gain
• state religious instability
  new order legitimacy,
• organization savagery
  religious authority,
• terrorist chaos order
  power
• attacks
• Time

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Khobar Towers, 1996
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Nairobi, August 7, 1998
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USS Cole October 2000
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Bali Bombing October 2002
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Marriott Hotel, Jakarta, IndonesiaAugust 2003
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Madrid Bombing, March 11, 2004
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Australian Embassy Jakarta Sept. 2004
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London, July 2005
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London and Glascow Attacks, June 2007
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Algerian Coast Guard BarracksSeptember 2007
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Iraq, Weekend of July 7, 2007(Washington Post)
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• 5. Counterterrorism Measures

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• 6. Non-Violent Activities